We’re down to just three weeks left of the NFL regular season! This past weekend was the first one where teams had opportunities to clinch playoff spots and division titles, and this weekend, we’ll have the first Saturday games. It’s all in preparation for the Christmas Day tripleheader, and we’ve got our NFL best bets for Week 16.

To truly make the most of our top NFL picks for THIS weekend, we’ve also hooked you up with a brand new, guaranteed Novig Sportsbook promo code bonus, which is available for fans in over 40 states to make NFL predictions!

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Week 16 Sunday, 12/21

The big storyline heading into last week was 44-year-old Philip Rivers returning to the NFL to help the Indianapolis Colts, and no matter whether you felt it was a good decision or not, it was a much more fun topic than what has stolen the headlines this week - the torn ACLs of both Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons.

We’d prefer to still be factoring those superstars into our NFL best bets for Week 16, but alas, that won’t be the case. No matter the circumstances, we’re always here to add to our NFL expert picks, especially during such a crucial time of the season. We’ve already seen teams like the Los Angeles Rams clinch a playoff spot, and several teams have already been eliminated.

With the Rams vs. Seahawks being the Thursday Night Football game, they won’t be part of our NFL best bets for Week 16 since we’re focused on the Sunday games, but there’s still a great slate to break down.

 

 

 

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Sunday, December 21st

Before we do, we also have those aforementioned Saturday matchups. Of course, we’ve made sure to have you covered there with our best Eagles vs. Commanders and Packers vs. Bears predictions. Those are two classic divisional rivalries, and they aren’t the only ones featured in Week 16.

We’ve also got Buccaneers vs. Panthers for what will be the first of their two meetings within the last three weeks of the season. Since that NFC South showdown made the cut in terms of our NFL best bets for Week 16, we won’t dive too deep into it just yet. Speaking of divisions, the AFC East has stayed up for grabs.

The New England Patriots were unable to clinch it despite a 21-0 lead over the Buffalo Bills, and now, the Pats have a prime-time Sunday Night Football game with the Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, Josh Allen gets to face a weaker AFC North team - Shedeur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns.

That game has also made the cut regarding our NFL best bets for Week 16, so let’s get into our top picks for this Sunday.
 

 

 

Bills vs. Browns Best Bet: Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD (+120 at Novig)

With so many great matchups on the slate that involve serious postseason implications, why on Earth are we kicking things off with one of the least anticipated? Just because it’s one that is expected to be lopsided on paper, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value to be had. Therefore, we’re kicking off our NFL best bets for Week 16 with Bills vs. Browns.

Rather than worrying about Buffalo covering such a massive spread on the road after such an emotional AFC East rivalry win over the New England Patriots, we’re going to exploit their defense. After all, that’s exactly what teams have been doing to prevent them from dominating, and the Pats perfectly illustrated it on Sunday.

The game started with New England QB Drake Maye RUSHING for two TDs, and that was followed by TreVeyon Henderson rushing for 52 and 65-yard TDs! Well, now we’re focusing our NFL best bets for Week 16 on his running mate at Ohio State last season - Cleveland rookie RB Quinshon Judkins.

He was taken just two picks ahead of Henderson in the 2025 NFL Draft, and way before Shedeur Sanders. As much as Sanders’ deep throws were shown on Sunday, if they want to be remotely competitive, they need to lean on their best offensive player, which we consider to be Judkins. It also wasn’t just the Pats that exploited the Bills' defense.

Buffalo has allowed 23 rushing TDs this season, which is not only the most in the NFL, but also four more than the next-closest team! Therefore, we’re kicking off our NFL best bets for Week 16 with Quinshon Judkins to score an anytime TD (+120 at Novig).
 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Best Bet: Mike Evans Anytime TD (+175 at Novig)

We won’t even make you wait for the games beyond the early 1 PM ET slate for our next pick. The Panthers didn’t capitalize on a massive opportunity to put themselves in the driver’s seat of the NFC South, and now, Tampa, with some extra rest, can pounce on the opportunity. It’s a smash spot, hence why it’s part of our NFL best bets for Week 16.

Frankly, we expect the Bucs to put up points in general, so in case it ends up being Emeka Egbuka or otherwise, consider their team total over as well. In any case, we’re exploiting the Panthers’ 27th-ranked defense against the pass in terms of EPA per play and how Mike Evans has feasted on it.

In his first game back from injury, Evans saw a whopping 12 targets and went for 132 yards. Somehow, that still pales in comparison to his consistency against Carolina, again, hence our NFL best bets for Week 16. Over his last 10 games against the Panthers, he’s had double-digit targets in seven of them (12 three times, 15 and 17 as well).

More importantly, he’s scored SEVEN TDs in his last five games against the NFC South rival and 11 in the last nine meetings. As you can see, that’s over a TD per game! That’s borderline hard to believe, so we’re adding to our NFL best bets for Week 16 with Mike Evans to score an anytime TD (+175 at Novig).
 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks NFL Week 16, 12/21

We’ve also gone beyond just our top NFL picks and hooked you up with some popular NFL Week 16 player props at Novig Sportsbook:

Passing Yards:

  • Josh Allen: Over 214.5 (-119) vs. Under 214.5 (-115)
  • Baker Mayfield: Over 228.5 (-115) vs. Under 228.5 (-117)

Rushing Yards:

  • Rico Dowdle: Over 59.5 (-115) vs. Under 59.5 (-113)
  • Bijan Robinson: Over 86.5 (-111) vs. Under 86.5 (-115)

Receiving Yards:

 

 

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