Thursday Night Football is here and that means NFL Week 6 officially gets underway. We’ve got Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium and there is a ton of NFL betting chatter going on. Talk to anyone new to the betting space and they’ve got the Chiefs in a blowout while those who have watching and betting football over the last few years will tell you how you want the Broncos and the points. But then there’s the weather. Gusts up to 30mph? Seems like it could make throwing tough. So, which side are you on? More importantly, which side am I on? Let’s figure it out and get to betting.



NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Spread: Chiefs -11

As I said in the introduction, we’ve seen the Chiefs struggle to cover big spreads at home but even more telling – this being a division rivalry at that -- the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs were favored by at least 8.5 points and Denver covered each and every time. Considering how bad the Broncos were last season, the fact that they still managed to cover, puts me on them again. If we factor in that we could be dealing with heavy winds, we could see more ground work which levels the playing field a lot more. I still think the Chief win this game, but it will be closer than most think. Pick: Broncos +11

The Total: 47

I’m not one to overreact to the weather, but if we are going to see sustained winds ranging from 15-30mph, then I’m sure we’re looking at a more conservative approach by both teams. Yes, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will have something up their sleeves, for sure, but considering how bad the Broncos run defense has been this season – and I mean REALLY bad – I would be shocked to not see them run the ball relatively hard tonight. It’s the same with Denver who gets Javonte Williams back tonight. Lots of running drains the clock and long, sustained drives keep the score down. Pick: Under 47 

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**all lines and odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook