Do you think we LIKE doing this? Being the bad guy here? Telling people that we actually think that their favorite tight end for this year could be a bust, so we are fading them in fantasy football drafts? Well, actually, we do kind of like it. Because we’ve done our homework. And we’re actually trying to help you. Plus, the bad guys can be kind of cool sometimes. So there.

Every offseason, we sit back as a community and say, “the tight end position is deep this year”. But the reality is that a lot of those tight ends will be high in the rankings because they produced last year - but those situations have changed. Others, that we are speculating about, will turn out to be all hat and no cattle. Navigating the tight ends rankings to avoid the tight end busts and find the sleepers, but to get there, we have to break some hearts with our Tight End Fades article along the way. 

In the first article in this series, we broke down the Elite Tight Ends for 2026. We laid out the good aspects, the bad aspects, and whether or not we liked them at ADP. And we pumped up a couple of them as guys we’d be willing to spend up on. Those were our shining knights of the position, so we leaned into the round table theme over there. Now we are looking at the dark underbelly of the position. The tight end busts. The tight end fades. The bad hombres that we want to leave out in the wild west to sabotage someone else’s team.

What Makes A Tight End A Fade?

There is a common misconception at play here in fantasy football. And that is that a “fade” is the same as a “bust”. With a bust, you basically have a player that is completely worthless - unstartable. It’s fairly rare for that to happen without injury, especially in the early rounds, but it does happen. For instance, Brian Thomas Jr last year, even when healthy, was incredibly difficult to start in fantasy. For a second-round pick, he was about as big of a snake as you could get in your boot. 

A fade is a bit more all-encompassing than that. With fades, we are simply talking about players that we don’t think will be worth their ADP - even if they do end up being startable. So yes, we want to fade players who we think will be busts. But we also want to fade players if they are being drafted around similar players that we like a lot better. 

We’ll also want to fade players if we think we can get players at the same position at a cheaper value later. We’ll want to fade players who are simply overhyped and are going too early. They might not be completely terrible, but they are not worth the value at their ADP. Just think about a guy like Ladd McConkey last year or even AJ Brown to some degree. Sure, you could use them, but wouldn’t it be nice if you had picked Chase Brown, Josh Allen, Brock Bowers, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba with that pick? 

 

 

 

How To Identify Tight End Fades and Busts

Well, we’ve already broken down What Makes An Elite Tight End. If you have not read that article, learning those concepts can help you master the tight end position for years to come and find the heroes of 2025. In this article, we are looking for the villains. The ADP outlaws. And, for the sake of simplicity, here is what we can do. We’ll take all the key points that make for an elite tight end from that article above and reverse engineer them into things we want to avoid. Makes sense, right? Here’s how that list would look.

  • Get the third (or worse) most targets on your team
  • Block on more than 15% of your pass snaps
  • Struggle vs. man-to-man
  • Struggle in the red zone
  • Run low aDot routes
  • Be slow
  • Be part of a low-volume offense
  • Be part of an offense where the targets are spread out

These are basically the boxes we DO NOT want to check. And that’s especially true for those first couple points, where the hit rates for top five upside are pretty terrible. Now, keep in mind, not every tight end in this article will have these issues - some may even have NONE of them. But we’ve determined via our research that they are going too early based on ADP. So here are our tight end fades wearing the black hats for 2026.

2026 Tight Ends To Fade

For any tight ends we have covered previously, we’ll just give a blurb and a quick link to where they are discussed in full. For any tight ends we have not yet covered in this series, we will hit on The Good, The Bad, and The Advice like always. 

  • THE GOOD - As much factual info as possible on why this player could be good.
  • THE BAD - As much factual info as possible on why this player could be bad.
  • THE ADVICE - My opinion on whether you should draft them at ADP or not.

So, without further ado, let’s dig into the tight ends we are fading at ADP in 2026. 

 

 

 

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals 

We did a full breakdown on Trey McBride already in this article. And it might sound like blasphemy, but our conclusion there was that we don’t love drafting him at current ADP.

For a tight end to justify a round 1-2 price tag in fantasy, they basically need to have a top five fantasy season OF ALL TIME at the position. That is what Trey McBride did last year, scoring 315.9 PPR points. The reality is that “positional scarcity” doesn’t really make up the difference when you are scoring any less than that. Some of these RBs and WRs are scoring 375 to 400 raw PPR points - Christian McCaffrey last year scored 417. If your TE comes out and scored ~240 points like Sam LaPorta did in 2024 when he was the TE1 in fantasy, that doesn’t cover that gap. The top all-time TE season is Rob Gronkowski with 330 points.

Last year, McBride had the perfect storm. The top WR got hurt in Marvin Harrison The defense was terrible. And the backup QB, Jacoby Brissett, turned the ball over a lot but also turned around and threw heavily when he did get it back, leading to super high-volume games. The Cardinals were the only team in the league that did not run the ball 30+ times in a game last year. Asking McBride to do it again this year is like asking a pitcher to throw a perfect game then go out and throw one again the next game. So we don’t love Trey McBride at his ADP. 

When To Draft Trey McBride in Fantasy Football Drafts?

This is not a complete fade for us. We won’t draft Trey McBride in the second round but, if he slides to the third or even fourth round, we would definitely consider it. What we typically do is make a big list of WRs and RBs that we think could be the top-scoring player in fantasy. We draft them first, and then we consider a QB or WR. That list, for me, is always more than 2+ rounds long. Perhaps it is shorter for you, so you may take McBride earlier. We have Brock Bowers ranked TE1, so we basically need Bowers to go first and McBride to slide to take him. 

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers

The Good

Tucker Kraft is a fun story. Like Mark Andrews, he wasn’t even the first tight end drafted by his own team the year he was picked - Luke Musgrave was. But Kraft worked his tail off and, largely through his blocking ability, he secured the starting role. He then proved that he was more than just an inline blocker with his pass-catching prowess.

We would describe Kraft as a “George Kittle-lite”. He doesn’t have the blazing speed of Kittle (Kittle ran a 4.52, which is 96th percentile, while Kraft runs a 4.69). But both are true “two-way” tight ends who can block at a high level inline and still thrive in the pass game. Like Kittle, Kraft’s secret weapon is chunk plays. Though when a guy rips off multiple 60+ yard TDs like Kraft did in 2024, it’s really not that big of a secret.

The Packers have been loaded with young weapons, but they finally decided to trim that roster down a bit this offseason. Namely, by letting Romeo Doubs walk and by trading Dontayvion Wicks. Hopefully that clears the path for Tucker Kraft to be more of a focal point of the offense. 

The Bad

Despite all the good with Tucker Kraft, he still makes us a little nervous. In year two, he was the full-time starter but maxed out at 70 targets. Last year he was on pace for 90+ targets, but Christian Watson missed the first seven weeks, and Jayden Reed essentially missed the first 13 weeks (he technically played 18 snaps and then 5 in the first two weeks, which is nothing). So the production last year for Kraft came essentially with no Watson or Reed before he got hurt.

The profile for Tucker Kraft also is not squeaky clean. Blocking on 12.9% of his pass plays is bad. Lining up inline for ~60% of his snaps is not good. He was TE18 in route participation and TE14 in targets. Share and his aDot of 4.6 is legitimately terrible. To be completely honest, I’m not even sure Tucker Kraft is that great of a route runner - he really benefits from play action and screens from his inline role, but he’s not really a game-changer vs. man and his contested catch numbers are low (3 in 17 games in 2024 and only 1 in 8 games last year).

And then there is the injury. This guy, who relies on these big chunk plays, is coming off a torn ACL. If this were Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, where we knew for sure he was the top target on the team - or at least second - we would just take the risk. But we don’t even know who things will shake out between Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Mathew Golden, and Tucker Kraft on a fairly run-heavy team. It feels like we are drafting a possibly injured Kraft at a hypothetical ceiling we have not quite seen yet.

When To Draft Tucker Kraft in Fantasy Football Drafts?

As of now, we have Tucker Kraft in red on the Dynamic Tier Tight End Rankings at the top of the Yin section of the Yin & Yang rankings. If we get some sort of news that he is absolutely fully healthy with no restrictions, we will change that to yellow, meaning we will consider him at ADP.  And we will update this article as well, if that’s the case. But, at this moment, there’s too much uncertainty around the knee and around his spot in the target pecking order to be paying top dollar. So we are fading Kraft at his current price. If he falls to TE9, we would consider that because now you are in the George Kittle range and Kittle is also coming off a serious injury. 

 

 

 

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions 

The Good

Sam LaPorta was a prospect we really liked coming out of college. Sure, he was a little bit undersized at 6’3” and 245 pounds. But he checked a lot of the boxes we like - especially the fun ones like speed (91st percentile 40) and tackle-breaking (19 broken tackles in his senior year, leading the class. He also ran about 50% of his routes from a WR spot, which we love to see.

So we liked the prospect LaPorta and were drafting him in a lot of dynasty leagues. And he quickly rewarded us by finishing as the TE1 in all of fantasy football as a rookie with 86 catches on 120 targets for 889 yards and 10 TDs. In year two, despite getting nicked up, he still gave us a TE8 finish. Last year his season was derailed by injury, but he was on pace for ~75 catches and 925 yards, so likely en route to another productive season for us. 

We’d also like to point out that new OC Drew Petzing just orchestrated one of the greatest seasons of all time at tight end for Trey McBride. So he certainly has some tricks up his sleeve for the tight end position that could get LaPorta going early and often. Sounds like everything is just peachy here, no?

The Bad

First, let’s just talk about this injury. He told reporters that he was “walking around like an 80-year-old” due to this back injury. He had pain, numbness, tingling, and muscle loss in his legs resulting from that, which required surgery this offseason. We are all hoping he makes a full recovery, but back injuries are always scary, especially in a full-contact sport.

Let’s assume that he stays healthy though. The number one indicator of upside for tight ends is either leading your team in targets or being second. Barring injury, Amon-Ra St. Brown is going to lead this team in targets - with a LOT. The battle then boils down to Jameson Williams vs. Sam LaPorta. Keep in mind that Jahmyr Gibbs also got 94 targets last year and is pretty much penciled in for a minimum ~70 each year. We have to keep in mind that the one time LaPorta did finish top 5, Jameson Williams started the season suspended and was not a full snap share guy for most of it.

In Week 1, LaPorta actually ran 80% of his routes from a WR spot and only blocked on 2.5% of pass plays, which had us really excited for him. But, as it turns out, that was simply because it was a rare game where they fell way behind. On the season, LaPorta only ran 58.2% of his routes from a WR spot, he blocked on 11.5% of his pass plays, and his route participation was actually only 60.5%. For our dynasty shares, we are quietly hoping the Lions DO NOT extend LaPorta so that he can leave and be a focal point somewhere else. 

When To Draft Sam LaPorta in Fantasy Football Drafts?

LaPorta actually does have a decent floor. And he has contingent upside if one of the two WRs gets hurt. We just don’t like drafting him in the TE5-8 range where he goes. If he falls outside of that and you are getting him in the TE9-12 range, we’ll happily take him - but we will also use a bench spot on a high-risk, high-reward second TE to see if we can hit upside. LaPorta happens to have the second earlier bye week for any TE (Week 6) so you will need another TE by then anyway. If they hit, you can turn around and trade LaPorta, who carries a lot of name-brand value. 

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys 

The Good

Last year’s results are the main draw for Jake Ferguson. Because he finished as a top five tight end in PPR, our main goal in this whole exercise. This is actually the second time that Jake Ferguson has finished with exactly 102 targets (2023 and 2025) and, in 2024, he was on pace for 104 targets but missed a few games. He has twice now finished as a top five tight end in fantasy football. 

It’s also been a recurring theme for Dak Prescott to target his tight ends. We obviously saw great fantasy seasons from Jason Witten, but Dalton Schultz also had a very similar season to Jake Ferguson in 2021 with 78 catches in 104 targets for 8 TDs. The Cowboys are once again likely to be a pass-happy team, so why wouldn’t the gun-slinging Cowboys give us another fantasy-relevant tight end? 

The Bad

There is a reason that picture for Jake Ferguson is a different type of Cowboys over on PlayerProfiler - Turd Ferguson. And that’s because Jake Ferguson really does not have a great athletic profile for tight ends. His 4.81 forty-yard dash is sub-40 % range for the position. In fact, he’s the first tight end to finish top five in fantasy with that slow of a 40 time since Heath Miller back in 2012. 

Because of that lack of speed, he also just put up the fewest yards by a top five tight end in fantasy since Robert Tonyan’s outlier season with 11 TDs. Guys that slow really need to either score a bunch of touchdowns or be PEPPERED with targets to have big upside. Which brings us to the real elephant in the room.

No one projects Jake Ferguson to be a top two target on his team because they have CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. In fact, he wasn’t really a top two target on his team last year and, had CeeDee Lamb not gotten hurt, he likely would not have gotten 100 targets either (and he definitely would not have been a top five tight end). Here is the per-game breakdown of stats for Jake Ferguson in the games CeeDee Lamb played less than 50% of the snaps (Week 18 was excluded because starters, including Ferguson, were pulled early). 

 GamesTargetsRecYardsTDsPPR PPG
With Lamb115.34.230.30.369.4
Without Lamb58.07.052.40.617.04


 

That difference in PPR points per game? That’s the difference between the TE2 and the TE20. Ferguson was a stud when Lamb was out and was a backend TE2 in the games when he and Pickens were playing. When you are drafting Ferguson, you are basically taking a handcuff who has contingent upside if one of the top two WRs gets hurt.

When To Draft Jake Ferguson in Fantasy Football Drafts?

Jake Ferguson is a guy I almost never draft - he’s not ranked in my top 15 tight ends in any format. I guess there would be two situations where I might consider it. One would be a best ball draft where I already have Dak Prescott, and I don’t have BOTH of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. In that case, you are basically just hoping one of the WRs gets hurt and your Dak/Ferguson stack hits at the right time. The other would be if I’m waiting VERY long on tight end in a deep league and Ferguson falls heavily. Then I might consider Yin & Yang TE where I plan to start Ferguson as a “safe” play and use a bench spot on someone risky with upside from the Yang list in the Dynamic Tier TE Rankings.

 

 


 

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots

The Good

Last year we won in on Hunter Henry as part of our Yin & Yang tight end strategy. Not only did he offer a decent floor, but there was a glimmer of upside with him possibly being a top two target on the team. He actually did end up as the second target on the team behind Stefon Diggs. And that saw him finish as TE7 in half PPR and TE9 in full PPR formats, which is pretty darn solid.

One thing that Henry has already been good at is man-to-man, especially operating in short areas. As we discussed in our article on What Makes An Elite Tight End, success in man-to-man and contested catch situations translates well to the red zone, with those guys garnering more endzone targets. Year in and year out, the numbers for Henry reflect that, with him once again finishing top 10 in receptions vs. man-to-man and top five in contested catches. Touchdowns can be flukey at times, but these stats at least translate.

Josh McDaniels is back calling the plays again, the guy who orchestrated the number one fantasy tight end season of all time with Rob Gronkowski. Drake Maye is back as well and will be another year into his development. The Patriots did take tight end Eli Raridon in the third round of the draft, but he’s not really a threat to steal the starting job here. So maybe Henry can once again be a serviceable option for us. 

The Bad

Long-time readers and fellow Patriots fans are going to be sad to see our ole buddy Hunter Henry in this section. But that’s just the way she goes sometimes, I guess. Who says cowboys don’t cry?

Unbiased fantasy football analysis has no favorites, so we can’t coddle our guy Henry here. Last year he had a big opportunity to actually have a top five fantasy season as the top two target for an MVP-caliber quarterback - and he didn’t. He was just fine. Part of that has to do with the offense spreading the ball around. And part of that is that Hunter Henry isn’t a particularly explosive athlete. He’s not as slow as Jake Ferguson by any means, but guys in Hunter Henry’s speed range need to get peppered with targets. There is a reason Zach Ertz only ever had one 1,000-yard season, and he needed 156 targets to do it.

Yes, Henry is back with McDaniels and Maye. But the drastic changes to the wide receiver room are terrible for Henry. Yes, Stefon Diggs is gone, but they paid Romeo Doubs big money AND traded for A.J. Brown. For Hunter Henry to see the targets we need, we basically either need one of those guys to get hurt or for Romeo Doubs to be a bit of a flop. I just can’t project Henry to get the 90 targets we need for upside if he didn’t even get 90 last year. 

When To Draft Hunter Henry in Fantasy Football Drafts?

Right now I’m pretty much only drafting Hunter Henry if it’s a best ball draft where I’ve already drafted Drake Maye and I’m simply looking for some correlations in the important weeks. Even then, the play really doesn’t pay out unless one of A.J. Brown or Romeo Doubs goes down (or busts completely, which is a tough ask). And last year Hunter Henry was in that situation, and it wasn’t particularly special. It hurts to cast off old friends, but such is life in the wild west of the tight end business.

Tight Ends We're Higher On Than Consensus

Cheer up there, buckaroo. It’s not all doom and gloom out here in the prairie. There are 32 teams, so there are PLENTY of tight ends we do like. Just take a little peek at the Dynamic Tier Tight End Rankings for the yellow names we are willing to draft at ADP and, especially, the green ones that we like ahead of ADP. There are also four other articles in the draft guide that cover tight ends we do like - these are just the bad apples we plan to leave on the ground. So make sure you check out both the rankings and write-ups to wrangle yourself a league winner in drafts this year!