2021 NFL Draft Guide: Homer Corner - Kansas City Chiefs
Published: Aug 23, 2021
Dynasty. That word has a lot of heft to it, especially in sports. Just like the television drama though, the Chiefs are living up to the branding. Instead of “Who Shot J.R.?” we could simply title each of the Chiefs’ games “What’s Mahomes Going To Do Now?” It might be a long way from the three-piece suits of Hank Stram on the sideline but the glitz from the offense would still be right at home on the set of the famed series and it’s that glitz that makes them so intriguing for fantasy owners and fans of the game alike. So the question is, just how much exposure to the Chiefs’ offense should we be getting in fantasy drafts and how much is too much? As a fan of the team, the fanatic, what fan is short for, in me says you can never have enough Chiefs. But let’s face it, that’s just not a healthy outlook to have and we’ll be burned, even late in drafts with that mindset.
The first thing to note is that, despite being praised over the last few years for being innovative and creative offensively, Andy Reid and his offensive coordinators, first Matt Nagy, and now Eric Bieniemy, the same formula has held true since 2015. As long as Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have been healthy for the full season, they’ve each seen more than 100 targets each year except one, when Hill played 12 games and saw nearly 90 targets. That doesn’t really leave a lot of room for others to see consistent work in the passing game does it? Since 2015, Kansas City quarterbacks have averaged 550 or so passing attempts a season and if 215-290 are split between Hill and Kelce, that leaves about 300 to split between the other 2-3 prominent wideouts and the few different running backs they deploy. There’s no doubt that Kelce and Hill will be top-two round assets this year with Kelce the clear TE1 and Hill a top-five wideout option regardless of format.
Speaking of other wide receivers, the departure of Sammy Watkins this offseason does open some targets to be taken in by Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. That being said, both of them played 16 games last year and saw nearly identical target and reception marks even with Watkins seeing 55 targets himself in the 10 games he played. If we’re looking at the upside play between the two it’s clearly Hardman. He’s essentially a copy of Tyreek Hill with less precise route running and is always capable of breaking a play for a big gain. In fact, Hardman averaged 13.7 yards per reception last year, exactly a yard per catch less than Hill and just slightly more than Kelce’s 13.5 YPC mark. Currently Hardman is going off as WR50 based on ADP since August 1st and that’s about where his production projects to fit though if he breaks a few plays for big gains, the yards could easily top 700 on the year with about 50 catches.
The part of the Chiefs’ offense that gets a bit overlooked from time-to-time is the running game. There are a few reasons for that with the main one being that Patrick Mahomes is so spectacular in the passing game that the rushing doesn’t get attention. However, a couple other reasons could be that they haven’t had a running back start all 16 games, or play all 16 games, since 2012 though a couple of seasons they rested their starters for the last game, and the third reason being that in three of the last four years, the quarterback has toted the rock at least 60 times. Clyde Edwards-Helaire comes in as the expected lead back just as he did last year, and for the first seven weeks he was that lead back. After the addition of Le’veon Bell, the production fell out, majorly, and knocked the shine off of what was a great start to a rookie campaign. With the additions to the offensive line and no clear back to really cut into his carries, Edwards-Helaire should be in the running as a top-10 back for fantasy which is still value coming off the board at RB14 since the start of August.
Kansas City remains a favorite to get back to the Super Bowl from the AFC and perhaps even win it, though their defense might be their downfall in the playoffs. When they do make it back to the AFC title game that will make it four years in a row and with a franchise quarterback under center, one of the best tight ends ever and an explosive set of skill players in Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire they will be lighting up real-life and fantasy scoreboards for the next few years to come and certainly in 2021.