Fantasy football is over - for the casual fantasy gamer. But you’re not a filthy casual, are you? You’re here on FantasyAlarm.com, after all. So you’re not letting fantasy season go that easily. Not without putting up one last fight.

Luckily for you, we have fantasy football playoffs. And there are many iterations of that. My good buddy and Lightning Round podcast co-host Kevin Tompkins already gave you a breakdown of how to attack formats where you make one lineup for the entire playoffs, like the FFPC Playoff Challenge. I’m here to help you in the other popular format - the one where you make a lineup each week but can only use each player ONCE.

 

The Basic Rules for One and Done Playoff Contests

The idea is simple but it doesn’t hurt to hit the basics quickly. For leagues like FFPC, NFL.com etc. you are basically just picking one lineup and riding that out for the duration. Here, we are picking a new lineup each week. This applies to sites like MFL.com or tournaments like Rob Norton’s Baby Bowl (if you aren’t in that one, simply message Rob Norton on Twitter telling him you want in, make a donation, and you’re in!) The twist of course is that once you use a player, you can’t use him again. So, if you use Josh Allen Week 1 then he goes to the Super Bowl, you better hope you have the other quarterback left.

Building a Winning One and Done Playoff Contest Strategy

Our strategy is going to be a combination of three things. Playing the odds, playing the matchups, and game theory. If you create a narrative and things break just right for you, you can take it home. Let’s get into it. 

Playing The Odds When Building One and Done Lineups

There are really two parts of this: the long game and the short game. For the long game, you need to make sure you have players to use in the final weeks of the contest (especially the final). That means predicting which teams will make deep runs and potentially go to the Super Bowl, to a certain degree. Obviously you want to lean into your own gut feelings and predictions but certain resources like Vegas odds and FiveThirtyEight.com predictions can help you with that. For instance, 538 gives the Eagles a 48% chance of making it to the Super Bowl while a team like the Dolphins have 0.5% odds. So you’re probably going to want to save some Eagles.

For the short game, we want to use the good players immediately on teams that are very likely to lose. There are only 14 teams here so you really need to take advantage of these guys before they get eliminated. Las Vegas isn’t always right but they are darn good at what they do so, when they say that the Seahawks. Dolphins, and Ravens are expected to lose by ~7-10 points this week, you might want to load up on players from those teams in Wild Card week. You should also lean into your own predictions for the games expected to be close. Do you have the Jaguars winning a game or two? Well, you better get Austin Ekeler in there this week if you think the Chargers lose. And keep in mind that you will have all the players from the two bye week teams at your disposal so you don’t want to go TOO crazy starting bad players on losing teams. You need to score some points, after all. And, speaking of points, you can use Vegas odds to lean into that as well. Look at the over/unders for these games. They expect 48.5 points to be scored in the Vikings-Giants game vs. 42.5 in the Seahawks-49ers game. Lean into that. 

Playing The Matchups When Bulding One and Done Lineups

Matchups absolutely matter. It’s not just about saying “I think the Seahawks lose to the 49ers so I’m going to use Kenneth Walker here”. The 49ers are arguably the best defense in the league against the run. There are six teams that are going to lose this week and you only need two running backs (unless you use a running back at the flex but more on that under Game Theory). You need to pick a winner in Giants vs. Vikings and neither team is great vs. the run so why not start one of Saquan Barkley or Dalvin Cook? Lean into those matchups.

You also shouldn’t be afraid to play amazing matchups on teams you expect to win. Think about tight end. The top five PPR tight ends are all available in these playoffs (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, Evan Engram). You could lean into guys like Engram or Andrews if you think they lose or you could start a guy like George Kittle against the Seahawks who have been one of the worst defenses vs. the tight end all year (who Kittle himself carved up for 93 and two TDs just a couple weeks ago). You literally can’t even use Travis Kelce or Dallas Goedert until the second round because they are on bye week. Plus, you might be the only one using George Kittle which gives you a huge advantage if he blows up. Which is what we like to call game theory…

Game Theory for NFL Playoff One and Done Contests

There are some strategies you can employ to game the system a bit. One we alluded to just now which is to try to use players you think will be low owned at times. That can help you differentiate from others. Play that great matchup if you want. Also, use your long term takes to your advantage. Do you have Tom Brady and the Bucs making a deep run? Save those guys. Do you think the Bills get upset round one? Load up on the Bills round one. You will be the only person who gets to use them all before they are gone.

You can also consider which teams are loaded at certain positions, allowing you to use them in multiple routes. For instance - split backfields. The Cowboys play the Buccaneers in the Wild Card. There are four viable running backs in Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Leonard Fournette, and Rachaad White. Heck, you could use Zeke and Fournette in your lineup and, regardless of which team wins, you will still have at least one viable back remaining. Pretty good deal. Teams like the Bengals, Chargers, Vikings etc. have a ton of fantasy relevant players. Use a couple of them early knowing you will still have the others down the stretch. Also keep in mind which positions are thin when picking your flex. There are a ton of solid tight ends but there aren’t a ton of super star RBs. 

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Example Lineup

Playoff fantasy is the ultimate game since it involves predictions, matchups, and game theory rolled into one. Not everyone is going to have the same predictions of who wins even so the lineups will be all over the place. Here is an example of a basic lineup I might use based on these concepts.

QB: Trevor Lawrence. This is a high over/under game with a close spread so, depending who you think will win, Herbert or Lawrence are good options.

WR: Christian Kirk: If you think the Jags get eliminated here but it’s a good game, why not stack it up?

WR: Jaylen Waddle: The Dolphins are big underdogs to the Bills and Tyreek Hill is a little banged up. Might be your only chance to use him.

RB: Saquon Barkley: Again, depending if you like the Giants or Vikings, one team needs to go. That means one elite RB out of Barkley or Dalvin Cook will be out. It’s honestly not crazy to play both. 

RB: Tony Pollard: If you think the Cowboys lose, that means a game script that could favor Tony Pollard. If they win? Well, you still have Zeke moving forward. 

TE: George Kittle: It’s the perfect matchup. You still will have Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert at a bare minimum. 

FLEX: Tee Higgins: The Bengals are loaded at WRs and they aren’t a guarantee to win this game. If they do win, you still have Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd at your disposal.