Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today? The 2-5-1 Commanders visit the first-place 5-2-1 Giants at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night, with New York a 2.5-point favorite and the total near 40.5. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this Week 10 matchup, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Commanders vs. Giants: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Malik Nabers, the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for October, faces a Commanders defense that ranks 18th in DVOA against WR1, while Jayden Daniels is healthy and facing a Giants defense that allowed 103 rushing yards to him in Week 5. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this one.
Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for TNF, Week 10
Malik Nabers NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 67.5 Receiving Yards
Nabers is coming off an NFC Offensive Player of the Month in October, with 36 catches for 509 yards and two touchdowns and 100-plus yards in all four games, and he has caught 11-of-14 targets for 206 yards since McCarthy took over. A five-catch, 43-yard day against Philadelphia was the exception, and he is a full participant with his knee issue. Washington ranks 18th in DVOA against WR1 and 22nd against WR2, and Nabers should get plenty of looks. Over 67.5 receiving yards looks like a good play.
Jayden Daniels NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 5.5 Rushing Attempts
Daniels' rushing has dried up lately, with 10 carries over the last three weeks, but the line is just 5.5 attempts, and he ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns against this same Giants defense in Week 5. His left elbow is no longer a limiting factor, as he was a full participant all week, and Washington is a 2.5-point underdog that has taken a lot of sacks. New York ranks 16th in rush defense DVOA. A quarterback who has reached six carries in two of six games, clearing 5.5 attempts, is a bet on a return to his early-season form.
Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Commanders vs. Giants
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Nabers and Daniels as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus
Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Thursday night matchup that's already stacked with value.