Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today? Week 10's Sunday slate opens with a 9:30 a.m. ET game in Munich and features two quarterbacks facing defenses that rank 24th and 25th in pass defense DVOA. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this Week 10 slate, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Patriots vs. Lions and Panthers vs. Saints: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Drake Maye and the Patriots face a Lions defense that allows a league-high 260.9 passing yards per game, while Tyler Shough and the Saints host a Panthers defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. Both games have totals near 50 and plenty of scoring potential. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this slate.
Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for Sunday, Week 10
Drake Maye NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Maye has at least two touchdown passes in each of his last six games, the longest streak of his career, with 17 total in that span and a 30-yard touchdown pass in five straight. Detroit ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and 24th against the pass, ranks 31st against WR1, and allows a league-high 260.9 passing yards per game. He has thrown 11 interceptions, and the Lions can score, which could limit New England's drives, but this game has a 51.5-point total, and the Patriots are underdogs. Over 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like a strong play.
Tyler Shough NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 1.5 Passing TDs
Shough has 14 touchdown passes through eight games and a four-touchdown game against the Raiders on his resume, though he has thrown multiple touchdowns in only one of his last five outings. Carolina ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and allows 3.2 touchdowns per game, and the Saints are 2.5-point home favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total. He has at least 255 passing yards in each of the Saints' last four games as a home favorite and adds rushing value, with 51 yards last week. Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is a volatile play, but the matchup and home field point the right way.
Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Week 10 Sunday
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Maye and Shough as our top plays for Sunday, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus
Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Week 10 Sunday slate that's already stacked with value.