Looking for the best Chalkboard NFL picks today to close out Week 9? The Bills visit the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night as 3-point favorites, with the total near 44 and Carson Wentz starting for Minnesota in place of the injured Kyler Murray. Below, we break down our top Chalkboard NFL picks for this matchup, complete with player projections and the matchup angles behind each play.
Bills vs. Vikings: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
Minnesota's defense ranks first in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, which should limit Josh Allen through the air, while the Bills rank 31st in DVOA against WR1, giving Justin Jefferson a strong chance to bounce back with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Here's where we're finding the value on Chalkboard for this one.
Best Chalkboard NFL Picks for MNF, Week 9
Josh Allen NFL Chalkboard Pick: Lower 231.5 Passing Yards
Allen averages 256.1 passing yards per game, but Minnesota has the league's top pass defense by DVOA, allows just 6.2 yards per attempt, and has given up only four passing touchdowns all season. The Bills have leaned on Cook, who has carried 21 or more times in three straight games, and Allen has nine rushing touchdowns, so Buffalo does not need to throw to win. Dion Dawkins missed practice with a rib injury, and Alec Anderson is also hurt, which puts the left side of the offensive line in question against Brian Flores' defense. This is a bet on game script, with Buffalo a 3-point favorite, but under 231.5 passing yards looks like the right side.
Justin Jefferson NFL Chalkboard Pick: Higher 78.5 Receiving Yards
Jefferson has 335 yards and four touchdowns on 28 catches through seven games with Murray, a pace of 47.9 yards per game, but with Wentz at quarterback, ESPN has him averaging 87.6 receiving yards. Buffalo ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1 and has no clear answer for Jefferson, and the Bills have allowed 10 of their 15 passing touchdowns after halftime, when Minnesota is likely to be playing from behind. Wentz favors a vertical, play-action approach under Kevin O'Connell, which fits Jefferson's skill set. Over 78.5 receiving yards looks like a good bet.
Chalkboard NFL Player Projections for Bills vs. Vikings
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Allen and Jefferson as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Chalkboard pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
How to Play These Chalkboard NFL Picks With Promo Code ALARM & Claim Your Welcome Bonus
Ready to build a lineup around these picks? Sign up for Chalkboard with promo code ALARM and claim the new-user welcome offer to get started. Just create an account, enter the code during registration, and follow the steps to activate your bonus. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Chalkboard promo code page for the latest offer details and for even more ways to load up on extra plays around a Monday night matchup that's already stacked with value.