Underdog NBA Picks Today, 3/1: Basketball Projections + More

The NBA slate for Sunday, March 1, 2026, brings a focused lineup filled with incredible value in the prop market. We are specifically targeting players ready to exploit elite matchups and step into massive facilitation and rebounding roles. Highlighting a dynamic veteran guard who has taken over playmaking duties for the Pelicans, alongside an elite interior presence leading the charge for the Pistons, we have locked in two premier targets with clear paths to shattering their projections tonight.

Dejounte Murray Underdog NBA Pick: Higher Than 5.5 Assists 

Dejounte Murray recently made his long-awaited return to the Pelicans' lineup, and his playmaking is already in prime form. After shaking off the rust from his Achilles recovery, he dished out nine assists against the Jazz on Thursday.

Having rested the front end of New Orleans' back-to-back on Saturday, he will have fresh legs for tonight's clash against the Los Angeles Clippers. As the primary initiator in this offense, Murray is in an excellent spot. With scorers like Trey Murphy around him, 5.5 is simply too low of a projection for a guard of his caliber. Expect him to dissect the defense, keep the ball moving, and comfortably clear this 5.5 mark.

Jalen Duren Underdog NBA Pick: Higher Than 11.5 Rebounds 

Jalen Duren has been a machine on the interior lately, emerging as a dominant force on the glass every time he steps on the floor. The 22-year-old center is on an absolute tear, entering Sunday on a streak of four consecutive double-doubles where he pulled down 16, 15, 14, and 13 rebounds.

Tonight presents a perfect situational spot for Duren to thrive. While the Orlando Magic will test Detroit inside, Duren's overwhelming physical presence and rebounding volume cannot be ignored. His ability to clean up second-chance opportunities and control the defensive glass makes him a top-tier target. He is obliterating this 11.5 line on a nightly basis right now, making this higher projection a must-play for Sunday’s slate.

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