We are targeting a red-hot sharpshooter in New Orleans and a relentless rebounder in Chicago tonight, capitalizing on an elite offensive month and a solidified rotation role. A scoring wing for the Pelicans has been lighting it up from deep in January, while the Bulls' big man faces a Brooklyn squad that consistently struggles on the glass. Both players are in prime spots to exploit their specific matchups and crush their projections, making them the anchors of our entry for the 1/16 slate.

 

Underdog Fantasy Free NBA Picks, January 16th: NBA DFS Projections

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Now, let’s dive into today’s NBA DFS projections and the best Underdog Fantasy NBA picks to help you build a lineup.

 

Trey Murphy Underdog NBA Pick: Higher Than 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Trey Murphy has been absolutely electric since the calendar flipped to 2026, and he enters tonight's game against the Indiana Pacers with supreme confidence. He is averaging a massive 31.7 points per game in January and is fresh off a performance against the Nets where he drained 5 three-pointers. With key teammates out, he has become a primary offensive engine for New Orleans.

He faces an Indiana Pacers squad that is decimated by injuries and ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Indiana’s inability to defend the perimeter, combined with their fast pace, should give Murphy ample open looks from beyond the arc. The 2.5 line is simply too low given his current volume and the soft matchup.

 

Jalen Smith Underdog NBA Pick: Higher Than 6.5 Rebounds

"Stix" has quietly become a rebounding machine for the Bulls recently, averaging 9.0 rebounds over his last five games. He pulled down 10 boards in Wednesday's win over the Jazz and has secured a significant role in the rotation with Zach Collins ruled out due to a wrist injury. Even coming off the bench, his per-minute production is elite.

Tonight he faces a Brooklyn Nets team that often struggles to close out defensive possessions and lacks depth in the frontcourt. With Smith playing meaningful minutes to support the Bulls' interior, he should have plenty of opportunities to clean up missed shots on both ends. Given his recent form clearing this number with ease in recent outings this projection offers significant value.

 

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