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Wendell Carter Underdog NBA Pick'em — Higher 12.5 Points

Carter just delivered a season-high 28-point performance on Friday and arrives in New Orleans with the kind of momentum that makes Higher 12.5 one of the most comfortable selections on Sunday's Underdog card.

He was perfect from the free throw line in Friday's win over Dallas, going 10-for-10 while leading all scorers with 28 points in a balanced Magic offensive attack that also featured 27 from Desmond Bane and 19 from Jalen Suggs. The performance was no fluke. Carter has gone Higher 12.5 in seven of his last ten outings, averaging 12.4 points per game on the season while operating as Orlando's primary interior scoring presence. His game is built on efficiency rather than volume: he attacks the rim on pick-and-roll actions, draws fouls at a high rate, and converts at elite percentages inside. Franz Wagner returned from his ankle injury on Friday and contributed immediately, which frees Carter to operate without defensive help converging on him from multiple directions.

New Orleans is a vulnerable defensive matchup in the frontcourt and has limited personnel to slow down a player of Carter's size, skill, and current confidence level. Higher for a player who just posted a season-high 28 in his most recent game is a selection the data comfortably supports.

LeBron James Underdog NBA Pick'em — Lower 25.5 Points

The case for LeBron staying Lower 25.5 tonight is rooted in one simple reality: his season-long production sits well below this number even in the most favorable scoring environments, and his recent outputs without Doncic have not changed that.

James is averaging 20.8 points per game this season in a supporting role built around Doncic's historic scoring run. With Doncic now ruled out for the regular season with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and Reaves also sidelined with a Grade 2 oblique, more of the offensive burden shifts to LeBron. But in six games without Doncic this season, he has averaged just 20.2 points, reflecting a player who has genuinely internalized a reduced shot volume as the right approach for this team. He attempted 15 or fewer shots in nine consecutive games earlier this season, the longest streak of his entire career, and that discipline does not evaporate overnight.

Dallas's defense at 24-53 will not be able to contain LeBron, and he will find clean looks consistently throughout the game. But finding clean looks and reaching 25.5 points are entirely different things for a 41-year-old player already in playoff conservation mode. His most recent games without Doncic were 14 points against Washington and 17 against Cleveland. Lower 25.5 tonight represents meaningful value against a projection that dramatically overestimates what LeBron will produce in this spot.

Build Your Underdog Pick'em Entry Today

Stack both of today's NBA picks into a single Underdog Fantasy Pick'em entry and let Sunday's matchups work in your favor. Our analysts track every injury report, usage trend, and matchup angle so you can play with confidence every day of the season. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code ALARM and claim your new user bonus before tonight's tip-off.