Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy NBA picks today? Fantasy Alarm targets Saturday's top Higher/Lower selections for the opening night of the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Whether you are building a multi-leg entry or isolating your best individual play, check out Fantasy Alarm's Underdog NBA picks page for expert projections and matchup breakdowns all postseason long. Here are the top Underdog Fantasy NBA picks for Saturday, April 18, 2026.

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Nikola Jokic Underdog NBA Pick — Higher 9.5 Assists

The line on Jokic assists is set more than a full assist below his 10.7 per game season average, which makes this one of the more straightforward props on the opening playoff weekend. He led the NBA in assists this season, becoming the first player in league history to lead in both assists and rebounds per game in the same year. Against the Timberwolves specifically, he averaged 11.3 assists across four regular-season meetings and logged 15 in the Christmas Day overtime win alone.

Minnesota has no individual defender capable of containing him, which forces their defense into rotations and help schemes that expose exactly the passing lanes Jokic exploits best. He does not need a monster scoring night for this prop to hit. He just needs to command attention in the paint and make the right reads, which is what he has done against this opponent all season. At home in Ball Arena for a Game 1, Higher than 9.5 Assists is a play on the most complete player in the sport doing what he does every night.

 

 

 

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Underdog NBA Pick — Higher 20.5 Points

Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.8 points per game in the best season of his career, shooting 39.1 percent from three and making 3.2 per game across 71 starts. He is a Most Improved Player candidate who increased his scoring average by more than 10 points from last season, the largest such jump by any player to eclipse 20 points since 2014-15. The prop sits right at his season average, making this a play on continuity rather than an outlier.

Post-Trae Young trade, Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson have shared the offensive load for Atlanta. The Knicks will prioritize Johnson given his size and playmaking, and that focus opens the catch-and-shoot and movement opportunities where Alexander-Walker does his best work. He had a big performance in the Hawks' regular-season win over New York and has already proven he can score in this environment against this team. With his toe sprain behind him and a playoff stage in front of him, Higher than 20.5 Points is the play.

 

 

 

Build Your Underdog Pick'em Entry Today

Jokic at home in a Game 1 against a team he averaged 11.3 assists against this season, and Alexander-Walker operating as a co-primary option with the Knicks keying in on Johnson. Two well-supported picks to anchor Saturday's NBA entry. Sign up with promo code ALARM and grab your $50 bonus before tip-off.