James Harden Underdog NBA Picks Today, 5/5: Basketball Projections + More

The 2026 NBA Conference Semifinals continue tonight with a two-game slate featuring the Cleveland Cavaliers visiting the Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers traveling to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. With high-stakes playoff basketball on the line, we have identified two premier targets on Underdog Fantasy to help you build a winning entry for Tuesday, May 5th.

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James Harden (CLE) Higher Than 6.5 Assists

James Harden has settled into his role as the primary floor general for the Cavaliers. While he only recorded 3 assists in the Game 7 clincher against Toronto, his volume throughout the first round suggests tonight’s line is a value. Harden averaged 7.7 assists during the regular season with Cleveland and 6.7 assists per game across the first round. Facing a Detroit defense in Game 1, expect "The Beard" to prioritize playmaking to get Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley involved early. In a series opener where pace typically slows, Harden’s half-court brilliance makes 7+ assists a strong projection.

Marcus Smart (LAL) Higher Than 2.5 Rebounds

Marcus Smart has been a "glue guy" for the Lakers this postseason, and his rebounding numbers have been remarkably consistent. In the Game 6 closeout against Houston on May 1st, Smart hauled in 7 rebounds while playing 35 minutes. Over the course of the first round, he cleared this 2.5-rebound line in four of the six games. With Luka Doncic officially ruled out for Game 1 tonight, Smart will continue to see heavy minutes (34.8 MPG this postseason). His relentless hustle and ability to crash the glass from the guard position make 3 rebounds a very attainable floor.

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