Opening night is here, and so are our Underdog NBA picks for the 2026-27 season. Tuesday's three-game slate runs from Celtics vs. Pistons at 3 p.m. ET to 76ers vs. Knicks at 7 p.m. and Thunder vs. Spurs at 9:30 p.m., and we're starting the year with two Higher points plays from the night games.

Joel Embiid headlines our Underdog NBA picks as Philadelphia opens on the Knicks' ring night, and Ajay Mitchell joins him for the Western Conference Finals rematch in San Antonio. Both players have lines that sit below what they produced last season, and both play in games with totals above 229 points. Check where they land in Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections before you lock them in.

Underdog NBA Picks: Tuesday, 10/20; NBA DFS Projections

The start of a new season is when Underdog lines are hardest to trust, because rosters and roles have changed and the books are working off last year's numbers. Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections give you a projection for every player on the opening-night slate, so you can line them up against each Underdog number and find the gaps before you build.

An All Pro membership unlocks complete access to our NBA DFS Projections and the rest of Fantasy Alarm's premium NBA tools for the full season. If you're playing Underdog NBA picks every night, All Pro puts the same data behind your entries that we use for ours.

 

 

 

Joel Embiid NBA Underdog Pick: Higher 21.5 Points

Embiid has a score to settle at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks swept the Sixers in the second round last spring, and Embiid managed just 18.7 points per game in that series while playing through right ankle and hip injuries. He walks into Tuesday healthy, and Philadelphia doesn't play again until Thursday against Cleveland, so there's no back-to-back hanging over his workload.

When Embiid played last season, the production was there. He averaged 26.9 points in 31.6 minutes across 38 games, and he did it efficiently at 48.9% from the field. A 21.5-point line gives him more than five points of cushion against that average.

Yes, LeBron James and Jaylen Brown will take shots that used to go elsewhere, but Embiid isn't bracing for a smaller role. "I don't think anybody has to take a back seat," he said after Friday's preseason finale. And whatever happens with the touches, nobody else is taking Embiid's free throws. He averaged 8.8 attempts and 7.5 makes per game last season, which builds in a scoring floor no matter how the touches get divided. He also looked sharp in the preseason finale with 27 points in 29 minutes, though Boston sat its regulars for that game.

New York is a 5.5-point favorite with a 232.5 total at FanDuel, the highest number on the board Tuesday. A competitive, fast-paced game is the right setting for a center who lives at the line. Embiid at Higher 21.5 points leads off our card.

Ajay Mitchell NBA Underdog Pick: Higher 11.5 Points

Oklahoma City is betting on Mitchell taking another step this season. General manager Sam Presti pointed to him several times this offseason as a player in line for more minutes, and Mitchell already carried a 21.8% usage rate last year as one of the Thunder's top creators off the bench.

The 2025-26 numbers back that up. Mitchell averaged 13.6 points in 25.8 minutes over 57 games, shot 48.5% from the field and 87.0% from the line, and finished fifth in Sixth Man of the Year voting even after injuries cost him much of February. In the playoffs, he averaged 15.1 points over 11 games, highlighted by 22 per game in the second-round sweep of the Lakers.

The preseason gives us some pause. Mitchell scored 11, 3, and 7 points in three exhibition games and shot 3-of-10 in the finale against Houston. Those games came in limited minutes, between 17 and 24, while Oklahoma City sorted out its rotation, and we'd rather lean on a full season of results than three tune-ups.

San Antonio is a 2.5-point favorite with a 229.5 total at DraftKings in a rematch of a series the Spurs won in seven games. Mitchell's scoring faded late in those conference finals, but a tight game with a total near 230 should keep him in his full bench role. He needs 12 points, and that's below his average from last season. Mitchell at Higher 11.5 points rounds out our Underdog NBA picks.

 

 

 

Unlock Your $75 Bonus & More With Underdog Promo Code ALARM

New to Underdog? Sign up with promo code ALARM to unlock your $75 bonus and more, then put it to work on today's Underdog NBA picks.

Download the Underdog app or visit the site, create your account, and enter promo code ALARM at sign-up. Build your first entry with Embiid and Mitchell or your own opening-night plays, and your bonus will be added to your account.

Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new Underdog NBA picks and our NBA DFS Projections all season long.