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LeBron James PrizePicks NBA Pick — Less 25.5 Points

With Luka Doncic ruled out for the remainder of the regular season with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and Austin Reaves also sidelined 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 oblique, LeBron James will carry additional offensive responsibility tonight. But 25.5 remains a significantly elevated number relative to everything his 2025-26 production has demonstrated, making Less the smart selection.

James is averaging 20.8 points per game on the season and has been in a deliberately reduced scoring role throughout the Lakers' run alongside Doncic. In six games without Doncic this season, he has averaged 20.2 points, barely above his full-season average. Even with both Doncic and Reaves now gone, James spent the second half of this season in facilitator-first mode, attempting 15 or fewer shots in nine consecutive games, the longest such streak of his 23-year career. He posted 14 points against the Wizards on Monday and 17 in Tuesday's loss to the Cavaliers, both without Doncic in the lineup.

Dallas is a porous defensive team at 24-53 and has no resistance to slow down a motivated LeBron, creating an environment where he can find clean looks freely. The issue is that reaching 25.5 requires a massive performance outlier from a player whose sustainable output in 2025-26 sits well below that number regardless of context. At 41 years old heading into the postseason, the Lakers are managing their star carefully. Less 25.5 for LeBron in this spot is one of the strongest value selections on Sunday's PrizePicks card.

Wendell Carter PrizePicks NBA Pick — More 12.5 Points

Wendell Carter is coming off a season-high 28-point performance Friday against Dallas and arrives today riding the hottest individual scoring stretch of his season, making More 12.5 one of the most straightforward entries on Sunday's PrizePicks board.

Carter led the Magic with 28 points on a perfect 10-for-10 from the free throw line in Orlando's 138-127 win over the Mavericks on Friday, falling just two points shy of his career best. He has gone More 12.5 in seven of his last ten games, a stretch that has established him as a reliable double-digit scoring option for Orlando down the stretch. He is averaging 12.4 points per game on the season and operates primarily at the rim, consistently generating high-efficiency looks through pick-and-roll actions and paint touches. Franz Wagner also returned from his ankle injury on Friday and contributed 18 points in 17 minutes, giving Orlando a more complete offensive attack heading into Sunday that opens up additional interior opportunities for Carter rather than reducing them.

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the weaker defensive teams in the league and have little interior resistance to challenge a skilled paint scorer like Carter. A season-high 28-point performance in his most recent game, seven More results in his last ten appearances, and a soft matchup against a struggling Pelicans team makes this one of the cleaner More entries on the Sunday slate.

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