We have our first big slate of the basketball season tonight, which means there is a boatload of PrizePicks NBA projections we can exploit to bring home some bank.

If you’re not playing already, be sure to sign up with PrizePicks promo code: ALARM to score the best signup bonus possible: a “Play $5, Get $50 Instantly” guaranteed bonus that you’ll get regardless of whether your first entry wins or loses! It's an immediate bonus too, so claim it now and you can use it to play today's picks with house money!

 

 

 

Once you're signed up, you can skim our PrizePicks strategy tips below before plugging in tonight’s top PrizePicks NBA picks, plays and projections.

Let's get after it.

 

 

 

PrizePicks NBA Picks Today: Wednesday, October 23, 2024

We’re going to approach today’s PrizePicks picks a little differently. It’s Opening Night for 20 NBA teams, and virtually all of these teams have multiple and/or major questions about the roles certain players will fill and the minutes they’ll see. 

Many NBA rotations have questions and unknowns that ultimately will impact your fantasy games. It's never good to be surprised by which players play (or don't) in a given game. But this is one of the many reasons why we at Fantasy Alarm are full-time NBA analysts. We put in LOADS of work to understand the game both on and off the court, and for real-world and fantasy purposes alike.

Because of that, we have confidence that our expertise - combined with our NBA DFS Projections - can help us exploit these unknowns and find more value in more places than what we’ll see even a month from now. 

For today’s PrizePicks NBA picks specifically, we’ll be sharing more plays and projections than usual. Why? Because we've found too many picks with too much value to keep them all to ourselves!

 

 

 

Rest assured that we have the same confidence in these picks as we do when we share a fewer number of them. (Otherwise we wouldn’t share them all!) You can play these PrizePicks NBA picks knowing that each comes highly recommended.

That said, the one thing I do NOT recommend is that you just jam these picks into a single, all-or-nothing entry. 

Think of it like this: if we go, say, 5-for-6 in our picks tonight, we should have a profitable evening. But tailing our picks is only half the battle. You also to make sure you set up your PrizePicks entries in way that increases their profitability over time.

Allow me to elaborate. (Or, if you just want the picks, skip ahead one section.)

NBA DFS Projections - Marcus Smart, Memphis Grizzlies

Smart is the perfect example for what I'm referring to when I say “picks are one thing, entries are another.” The former Celtics captain heads into the season healthy and hungry to help the Grizzlies rebound from last year's injury-ravaged disaster.

Luke Kennard, Vince Williams Jr., and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all out tonight. This means Smart's role on the offensive end should be solidified, and he should see all the minutes he can handle this early in the season.

Let's confirm the opportunity with some numbers:

Today's Marcus Smart NBA DFS Projections At Fantasy Alarm: 15.7 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.7 ast, 2.2 stl, 30.5 total fantasy points.

Today's Marcus Smart Projections At PrizePicks: 11.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.5 stl, 24.5 total fantasy points.

Marcus Smart's 2023-24 Season Averages: 14.5 pts, 2.7 reb and 4.3 ast per game. 

So we have multiple quantitative AND qualitative data points that suggest Smart should smash his PrizePicks projections today. That means the only remaining questions are:

  • Which projection do we want to pick on for our PrizePicks NBA play?
  • What other projection(s) do we pair this PrizePicks pick with?

This brings me back to the all-or-nothing pick’em approach. I hate this approach and do not recommend it. Here's an example why.

 

 

 

Turning PrizePicks NBA Picks Into Winning Entries: A Theoretical Example

Below are six PrizePicks plays we recommend tonight.

Let’s pretend you play them all by entering 2, 3-pick entries that payout the standard 5x. Imagine only one of these entries hit. No worries - you’re still up 4x!

Now let’s pretend you entered all 6 picks into one, single PrizePicks NBA entry today. If “only” 4 out of 6 picks hit, you’ll win 0.4x of your entry fee - a net loss. If “only” 5 out of 6 picks hit, you’ll win 2x your entry fee - which is still considerably less than the 4x you’d be up with 2, 3-pick entries.

Going 6/6 would be wonderful and the 25x payout would be great. But look at how many winning combinations (and how much cash) we missed out on by not pairing them differently!

At the end of the day, this can be summarized quite simply: We will lead you to winning picks. But it's up to you to turn these winning picks into winning PrizePicks lineups.

With this in mind, we’ll take a bit more of a rapid-fire approach to our PrizePicks NBA picks today. Use them with confidence - but be smart with how you use them!

 

 


 

PrizePicks NBA Pick: Marcus Smart - More Than 24.5 Fantasy Points

See our Marcus Smart PrizePicks projections and analysis above. He should smash this number. 

As if that's not enough, his matchup also is one of the best. Last year, the Jazz had the 2nd-worst scoring defense in the NBA, allowing a terrible 120.5 points per game. So Smart will likely not be the only Memphis player to have a massive stat line tonight.

 

 


 

PrizePicks NBA Pick: Terance Mann - More Than 15 P+R+A

Paul George is gone and Kawhi Leonard is out. Kevin Porter Jr. was the only significant acquisition the Clippers made this offseason.

Ready or not, Mann will need to take on a larger role offensively for Los Angeles.

Looking at last season, when Leonard and George were both off the court, Mann not only saw the most minutes of anyone on the team, but also saw his per-36 averages swell to 15.7 pts, 6.4 reb and 2.6 ast. If he were to reproduce that same rate tonight, he would clear his 15 P+R+A PrizePicks projection in less than 24 minutes. 

Our PrizePicks NBA projections peg Mann for 13.7 pts, 5.1 reb and 2.5 ast in 32 min. This totals to a 20+ P+R+A projection, which is more than enough value to pick Mann with confidence.

UPDATE: PrizePicks has added an option to select more or less on Mann to score 18 fantasy points. Our NBA DFS projections forecast him to tally 26.2 fantasy points. While the original 15 P+R+A pick shared here still is solid, the value on his fantasy score projection is significantly greater. If you haven't placed your pick yet, switch to Mann scoring more than 18 fantasy points on PrizePicks tonight.

 

 


 

PrizePicks NBA Pick: Jonathan Kuminga - More than 19.5 P+R+A

This is a goblin pick, but it’s close to a gimme.

We project Kuminga to rack up 21.0 pts, 5.9 reb and 2.6 ast in 31.0 min. That’s a P+R+A projection of almost 30. 

With nearly 50% clearance, this pick present massive value even at its slightly reduced payout. More importantly, I like pairing higher-confidence goblin picks with a “regular,” non-goblin PrizePicks projection to increase the likelihood of the larger entry winning.

(Are you starting to see the strategy I was talking about earlier?)

 

 


 

PrizePicks NBA Pick: Ziaire Williams - More Than 4.5 Reb + Ast

Pinch your nose if you must, but be sure to play this pick. 

Before he was traded to Brooklyn last year, Williams had taken on a more prominent role in Memphis due to the insane amount of injuries the team experienced. With his increased minutes came increased counting stats. In 5 starts, he averaged 10.3 pts, 5.4 reb and 1.3 ast in 28.6 mpg.

The Nets have made it clear that they want to see whether or not Williams fits into their rebuild. He saw 25.3 mpg this preseason and totaled 10, 10, 8 and 4 Reb + Ast in them.

This fits firmly into this article's theme of “turning unknowns into opportunities.” If Williams even sees 20 minutes tonight, he'll comfortably clear this PrizePicks projection. I took a long look at the “more” on his projection of 7.5 points as well and would not fault you for picking that instead.

 

 


PrizePicks NBA Pick: Zach Edey - More Than 8 Points

Edey is going to experience his fair share of growing pains this season. Whether he flies or flops tonight in Salt Lake City shouldn't matter all that much. The bar is set entirely too low with this goblin projection.

Edey averaged 12.2 pts per game this preseason. Our projections predict he'll score 14.2 pts over 28.0 mins tonight. The man is 7'4" and can dunk without jumping. With Ja Morant rim-running, pick-and-rolling, and all-around offense-ing, this year's 9th-overall draft pick shouldn't even need to do much work to get the point-blank looks he needs to pass this projection with ease.

 

 

 

PrizePicks NBA Pick: Herb Jones - More Than 24.5 Fantasy Points

Jones is one of the best defenders in the game. Not only can he rack up the high-scoring defensive stats we love to see in our NBA DFS lineups, but he's also bound to see more points, rebounds and assists tonight due to Zion Williamson being scratched with an illness.

Fanjections projects Jones to score 29.2 fantasy points tonight. I think he'll exceed that as well, but we only need him to come close to still comfortably clear this stat on PrizePicks.

Other PrizePicks NBA Plays To Consider

  • Jalen Wilson - More Than 7 Points
  • Dyson Daniels - More Than 7.5 Points
  • Duncan Robinson - More Than 1.5 3-Pt Made
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. - More Than 11 Points