The 2026-27 NBA season tips off Tuesday with a three-game opening night, and our PrizePicks NBA picks are back for another year. The slate opens with a 3 p.m. ET matinee between the Celtics and Pistons, moves to Madison Square Garden at 7 p.m. for the Knicks' ring night against the retooled 76ers, and wraps at 9:30 p.m. with a Thunder vs. Spurs rematch of last spring's Western Conference Finals.

For today's PrizePicks NBA picks, we're stacking two points props from the back half of the slate: Joel Embiid against the defending champions and Ajay Mitchell in San Antonio. Both are Higher plays, and both come from games with totals north of 229 points. Before you build your entry, check where each player lands in Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections.

PrizePicks NBA Picks Today: Tuesday, 10/20; NBA DFS Projections

Every PrizePicks line is a number to beat, and the fastest way to find the soft ones is to compare them against a projection. Fantasy Alarm's NBA DFS Projections cover every player on the opening-night slate, so you can see at a glance which lines sit below a player's realistic output and which ones the books have priced tight.

Want the full picture for the whole season? An All Pro membership unlocks complete access to our NBA DFS Projections along with the rest of Fantasy Alarm's premium NBA tools. If you're playing PrizePicks NBA picks every night from October through April, All Pro is the edge that pays for itself.

 

 

 

Joel Embiid PrizePicks NBA Pick: Higher 21.5 Points

Embiid only made 38 regular-season appearances in 2025-26, but when he was on the floor, he was still one of the most reliable scorers in basketball. He averaged 26.9 points in 31.6 minutes per game, shot 48.9% from the field, and got to the free-throw line 8.8 times a night. This line sits more than five points below that average.

The obvious question is how many shots are left with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia. Embiid isn't planning on giving any back. After Friday's preseason finale, he told reporters, "I'm against the concept of sacrificing," and said he wants every star on the roster doing what he does best. His floor also doesn't depend entirely on field goal attempts. He made 7.5 free throws per game last season at an 85.4% clip, which gets him roughly a third of the way to this number before we count a single jumper. He also looked ready in the preseason finale, scoring 27 points in 29 minutes against Boston, though the Celtics rested their regulars that night.

The matchup is where the doubters will point. The Knicks swept Philadelphia in the second round last spring, and Embiid averaged just 18.7 points in that series while playing through right ankle and hip injuries. He enters this one healthy, with the Sixers not playing again until Thursday at home against Cleveland, so there's no back-to-back to manage.

New York is a 5.5-point favorite at FanDuel, with a 232.5 total that is the highest on the opening-night slate. That's a fast, high-scoring environment without a blowout spread, and it's exactly where we want a high-usage center. Add Embiid to your PrizePicks NBA picks at Higher 21.5 points.

Ajay Mitchell PrizePicks NBA Pick: Higher 11.5 Points

Mitchell broke out in 2025-26, averaging 13.6 points in 25.8 minutes across 57 games while shooting 48.5% from the field and 87.0% from the line. He finished fifth in Sixth Man of the Year voting despite missing extended time with injuries in February, and he raised his scoring to 15.1 points per game in 11 playoff games, including a 22-point average in Oklahoma City's second-round sweep of the Lakers.

His role should only grow from here. Thunder general manager Sam Presti mentioned Mitchell several times this offseason as a player who could take on more minutes, and his 21.8% usage rate last season already made him one of the primary bench creators behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. An 11.5-point line is two full points below his regular-season average.

We won't pretend the preseason was pretty. Mitchell scored 11, 3, and 7 points in his three exhibition games and closed with a 3-of-10 night against Houston. Those games came in 17 to 24 minutes with rotations still being sorted out, though, and preseason shooting slumps tell us far less than a full regular season of production does.

San Antonio is a 2.5-point home favorite with a 229.5 total at DraftKings. The Spurs won four of five regular-season meetings and took the conference finals in seven, and Mitchell's scoring dipped late in that series. Still, a close game with a total near 230 means a full bench workload, and Mitchell only needs 12 points to cash. Lock him into your PrizePicks NBA picks at Higher 11.5 points.

 

 

 

Sign Up Using ALARM To Get A $50 PrizePicks Bonus With Just A $5 Play

New to PrizePicks? You can play today's PrizePicks NBA picks with extra value on the board. Sign up with promo code ALARM, make a $5 play, and you'll get a $50 PrizePicks bonus.

Getting started takes a few minutes. Download the PrizePicks app or visit the site, create your account, and enter promo code ALARM when prompted. Make your first $5 play, whether that's Embiid and Mitchell or your own opening-night stack, and the bonus will be added to your account.

Then come back to Fantasy Alarm every day for new picks and our NBA DFS Projections all season long.