Happy Tuesday, March 18th! We have a 4-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

It's finally March Madness in the NCAA streets, but if you've been playing NBA DFS since the new year, the league has been pretty maddening for a few months!

Some of tonight's bigger news items: Jayson Tatum and Evan Mobley are questionable, LaMelo Ball received the mid-day downgrade (to questionable), and Stephen Curry is rumored to possibly sit this evening on the second leg of a back-to-back after looking “fatigued.”

If Tatum sits: Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday became pretty safe, per dollar, and it would really help out Payton Pritchard.

If Tatum plays: Probably one of the best large-field tourney plays on the slate. 5.4% usage bump, 52.38 DKP per 36 without Jaylen Brown on the floor this season. What's the point of worrying about blowouts when guys like Quentin Grimes have morphed into Jerry Stackhouse lately?

If LaMelo sits : Pretty much everyone else on the team is cheap, so I can't argue against anyone that is projected for minutes and a role on this slate for GPPs. They're already without Miles Bridges (and Brandon Miller). Mark Williams will go slightly overlooked, IMO. He is a massive FPPM producer, and there might be some public sticker shock at $8,100. Our guy Grande also likes this one, he noted that Atlanta is 27th in defending points in the paint since Jan. 20, which was OO's first start.

If LaMelo plays: Great game environment, will be super chalky. I'm positive i'll have shares in multi stuff. We're splitting hairs on a small slate, he has 60-point upside, and that's the bottom line.

If Curry sits: Golden State just has so many pieces, and we also need an update on Podz. Jimmy Butler makes sense and should be relatively safe in this scenario. Steve Kerr just has so many smaller guards and wings, and he's a nightmare to deal with. GP2 has been playing a lot, and he may be a nice leverage value piece if the news doesn't break until after lock. Moses Moody has seen his price jump, but if Curry or Podz miss, I don't hate it for GPPs. Moody has seen 25+ minutes in 7 straight games. Despite a few brutal games, if Curry misses, I like Buddy Hield for large-field GPPs. Don't get me wrong his game log is UGLY, and Kerr hates him…but Buddy has seen a 6.5% usage bump in 77 minutes with Curry off the floor in March. If Curry and Podz are both out, fire Buddy up with more confidence. That being said, the biggest winner might be Jonathan Kuminga. He's played three games since returning from a lengthy abssence, and he played 27 minutes yesterday against the Nuggets. He's given us usage rates in the mid-20s, and his price is cheap. You never know with Kerr, but to me, Kuminga makes sense on this slate for us.

If Mobley sits: It's an ugly game environment, and no doubt some Cavs may benefit in this case, but we may want to look at the other side of the court and consider James Harden a much better GPP option. There's about a 5-point difference in the Cavs' opponents offensive rating depending on when Mobley is on/off the court. That's a big deal, and on a small slate, I'm willing to take some more risks and get away from projections a little more.

 

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, March 18th

Be sure to like and subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel!

 

 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

UPDATE - 4:55 p.m. ET

  • Stephen Curry - OUT
  • Quentin Post - Q

UPDATE - 6:04 p.m. ET

  • LaMelo Ball - OUT
  • Noah Clowney - IN
  • Ziaire Williams - IN
  • Trae Young - IN

UPDATE - 6:10 p.m. ET

  • Jayson Tatum - OUT

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 3/18

  • Jayson Tatum - Q
  • LaMelo Ball - Q
  • Stephen Curry - Q
  • Brandon Podziemski - Q
  • Evan Mobley - Q
  • Jaylen Brown - OUT
  • Miles Bridges - OUT
  • Cam Thomas - OUT
  • Caris LeVert - OUT
  • Clint Capela - OUT

 

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

 

 

 

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.

High

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, Trae Young

Mid

  • Dyson Daniels, Jimmy Butler, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Jonathan Kuminga (slightly better on FD), Brandon Podziemski (better on FD), Jrue Holiday (GPP), Jarrett Allen (GPP, *If Mobley OUT*)

Value

  • Damion Baugh, Seth Curry, Wendell Moore Jr., DaQuan Jeffries, Zaccharie Risacher, Nick Smith (FD)

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