NBA DFS Position Coach: March 16, 2016

So I asked my soon-to-be 4-year-old if she would write my article when I get old and sickly. In the cutest voice I have ever heard she replied, “I will write your article daddy”.

Sometimes even though they drive you nuts they remind you of why you love them so much.

I am on day three of this fever. My head is still pounding and my eyes feel like weights are attached to the lids. I am going to Tout Wars in NYC this weekend so at some point I need to find a little downtime to get better. Basically, after I finish tomorrow’s position coach article my phone is going off and I am getting into bed.

We have a nice nine-game slate tonight with all the madness, stress, and, pardon the language, typical NBA bullsh*t to deal with. We have enormous value looming in the Memphis game but trying to hit on it is seemingly becoming difficult. I also heard our own Justin Fensterman say something about an illness going through the Wizards, I cannot confirm it but as usual another situation to keep an eye on. To be honest I feel the more reliable value tonight relies with the Orlando Magic. They are pretty banged up as well and it seems easier to pinpoint where the minutes are going to fall there.

Let’s touch briefly on what I expect out of value. People are often under the misconception that if a player gets heavy minutes he will produce. Well, in most cases that is true but what it really depends on is who is left on the floor healthy. Most often teams just simply put the weight of the offense on a few key players and use these “value” guys to set up screens and such. This is where you really need to see how a player performed in the limited minutes he has played. I have spoken of this. When I see a player who plays 30 minutes and nets 20 fantasy points I shy away. To me anyhow, that sucks.

Bismack Biyombo is a perfect example if you read yesterday’s position coach article. The whole reason I was hot on him was his fantasy points per minute production. It was good, and so was he last night. Just remember that all these “value” guys are bench players and most often they are on the bench for a reason. No minimum salary scrub is ever cash game viable if you apply the typical principles that go with cash game strategy. You know, safe players with limited ceilings but steady floors. On no planet is Brandon Jennings (even though I used him), Marcus Smart, or Briante Weber cash game safe. Will I use them? Sure, I will but I hate to follow rules. So just remember more often than not you will find you get burned on value, but when you hit on it…it sure is nice. For future reference, the possible value plays section will be all players under the $5K mark.

So with my wife making meatballs for tonight’s dinner and a little girl riding around me with a tricycle like Indians getting ready to attack a wagon in an old western I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Strategy

The point guard position is fully loaded tonight and we have nice options at all price points. With all the superstars on the board you can expect a lot of players to use the stars and scrubs approach with so many near minimum priced players up for grabs tonight. Your greatest sources of value tonight if you choose to go that route appear to be at the point guard and power forward positions.

Core Players

Very rarely do I use Isaiah Thomas but this one is hard to resist. The Thunder-Celtics game tonight has a huge 220.5 expected point total with the Oklahoma being three-point favorites. Thomas has been on fire lately scoring over 30 fantasy points in seven straight games while putting up 51.6 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Knicks on March 4 and 43.2 two nights ago versus Indiana. The Thunder are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards and for under $8K on FanDuel for once I get to use the little fellow. Russell Westbrook was my first choice but when I thought about I decided why pay $10,700 to get 50 fantasy points when I think I can get over 40 for $7,900.

Kemba Walker's price seems to be on the rise but he is earning it. In seven out of his last 10 games he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg with two of them just missing the 50 mark and one eclipsing it versus the Pelicans on March 9 (57.9). The Magic are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards and are all banged up. I see little the backups will be able to do to stop the mighty Kemba. The game has a nice 210.5 expected point total which opens the door nicely for a player who has scored over 30 points in four out of his last eight games.

As I mentioned I had heard something about an illness in DC. Who knows? But here is the deal. If there is some kind of illness and guys sit huge value is going to open up here. If John Wall is one of the guys playing still and Bradley Beal and let’s say Otto Porter sits…you play Wall tonight. Regardless, though, he is still a viable option in a great matchup facing a Bulls team that is completely decimated with injury themselves. The Bulls are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and Wall has that huge upside to drop 50 fantasy points or more. In his last 10 games he has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg in seven of them hitting the 50 mark we want out of him versus the Sixers and Trail Blazers who also defend point guards horribly. All signs point to a great night for Wall and possibly a super night.

I am going to keep riding the Darren Collison train as long as his price stays low and he remains starting at the two. The Pelicans-Kings game is the game I am most intrigued by tonight. It has a high 222.5 expected point total and the Kings are 2.5-point favorites at home. His price is only $5,300 still on FanDuel and he has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in four straight including one game where he put up 38 fantasy points on FanDuel versus Cleveland. The Pelicans are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards so the matchup is right. He isn’t going to light up the sky but he could grab you a cheap 30 pack. He is like the Natty Ice of point guards.

Possible Value Plays

The safest value play I see at point guard tonight is Tony Douglas. If he is starting again in the two tonight, I believe he will he could not get a better matchup facing a Kings team that is allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. He scored 22.7, 31.4, 19.2, and 42 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last four games while playing over 30 minutes in three of them. Can you guess which three? If not re-read article from start. His price is $4,500 on FanDuel tonight and he is by far the safest point guard under $5K tonight.

Here comes a clusterf**k for you to decipher but I feel it needs to be brought to your attention. C.J. Watson is suffering probably from the same illness I have that is going around. I am on day three of a fever. He looked like crap when they made him play the other night so Jennings shined. Jennings has his own health issues (Achilles) to deal with. So then the question is, how does this work tonight? All of this spells avoid to me unless we get some kind of confirmation someone is 100 percent ready to go. Whoever that turns out to be is a viable punt option tonight for the minimum price across the industry in a stars and scrubs GPP.

I mentioned him earlier, Weber. Another player in a long line of crap Memphis is putting on the court right now to try and get people to remember the game and not the hot dogs. Mark Kaplan must be in agony right now watching his Grizzlies. The funny part is he is probably a better dunker than half the team themselves (read earlier articles about Mark Kaplan and his amazing dunking abilities). Anyhow, one thing is certain for Weber tonight and that is minutes. He has played over 30 minutes in three straight playing 40 minutes in one game. The results are pretty crappy to be honest. He only scored over 20 fantasy ppg in one of them. But the one he did score them in was in a good matchup versus the Pelicans. Well, he has a good matchup again tonight with the Timberwolves allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Is he risky? Hell yeah he is. What Memphis player isn’t?

Shooting Guard

Strategy

Amazing how even on a nine-game slate this position is thin. Most of the better players have bad matchups and I see no need to spend a fortune at the two tonight outside of throwing out James Harden in a stars and scrubs GPP. I am actually going to go cheap myself at the two to spend up elsewhere.

Core Players

I am loving me some Victor Oladipo tonight and I am not afraid to tell the world. Remember this from yesterday? It rings true today. If you are going to spend up in any fashion tonight then Oladipo is the player to use. Orlando is banged up pretty good right now sliding a lot of the offense over to Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and himself. Oladipo now has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four out of his last five putting up over 40 versus the Nuggets last night. The Hornets defend the two well allowing the 11^th fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but I really doubt that matters.

Klay Thompson’s price is down to under $7K on FanDuel. I find that enormous value for a shooting guard who has been known to drop over 40 fantasy points when he gets hot. Tonight he gets the Knicks who are allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards in a game with a high 220 expected point total. He has the second highest usage rate among shooting guards on the slate next to Harden and has scored over 40 fantasy ppg three times in the last 10 games with two 30-point performances sprinkled in for good measure. I am not spending but if I was these two would make a great stack.

Avery Bradley is another decent option tonight. The Thunder are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards which is just favorable enough to consider and Bradley plays heavy minutes. He has managed to play over 35 minutes in seven of his last 10 games with mixed results fantasy production wise making him a better GPP play over cash. The last time he scored over 30 fantasy points in a game was versus the Timberwolves on Feb. 22 when he put up a score of 32.4 on FanDuel. His price is fair at $5,200 and he is without a doubt one of the better options at the two tonight.

Possible Value Plays

The player I really like tonight is J.J. Redick. You ever get the feeling that a player is due for a big game? Yeah, I do not have that feeling here but I do believe he is going to throw up over 25 fantasy points tonight for the low price of $4,800 on FanDuel. In Redick's last 10 games he has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in eight of them with most hovering around the 25 range. The Rockets defend the two horrible allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg and he is a great way to gain some cheap exposure to this high 214.5 expected point total.

If E’Twaun Moore starts again tonight at point guard then I am using him myself. His price has risen to $4,600 on FanDuel but I find that still a fair exchange. In each game he played 30 minutes or more he scored near or over 30 fantasy points. Ding, Ding! We have a winner. The Wizards who have questionable health issues are allowing the 15^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Not sure if he ends up in the two or not with Derrick Rose going through shoot around this morning.

As much as it pains me you have to at least take a look at Kyle Korver for the low price of $3,900 on FanDuel. Unpredictable is his history but as of late he has been pretty spot on for his price. In his last two games he has scored 31.3 and 20 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Grizzlies and Pacers. He plays 25-to-30 minutes per night and if he gets hot tonight he could make you very happy. Or, he could get you seven fantasy points. That is why he is so cheap.

Small Forward

Strategy

Is there ever a night where the small forward position does not feel thin and rocky? If the position gets any thinner Sally Struthers will be able to ask for money to feed it. Too tasteless? Regardless I am not messing around and taking any risks here tonight. With so many decent plays at the other positions tonight on the cheap it only seems logical to lock this weak one down. There are a few decent cheap options here but none without risk.

Core Players

Very rarely do I use Kevin Durant without Westbrook but tonight I am making that exception. First off, the Celtics do little to stop anyone from the forward position (19^th versus SF and 26^th versus PF) and second he has gone three straight games without scoring 50 fantasy points. Call me nuts but we have a Mike Trout after two weeks without a hit facing John Danks (who sucks) situation here. While most people are going to gravitate to LeBron James because his price is under $10K I believe for $500 more on FanDuel you are way better off with Durant. Prior to this three-game slide in fantasy production where he has only scored 32.7, 45.8, and 34.5 fantasy points on FanDuel he had seven straight games (I only went back 10 games) where he scored over 50 hitting the 60 mark versus the Bucks on March 6. All in on KD tonight.

The player I am pairing with him is Carmelo Anthony. Yup, I am loading the three. I really wanted to get some exposure to this late game between the Knicks and the Warriors but more from the Knicks side and Anthony seems like a nice way to do it. He has the third-highest usage rate on the slate among small forwards and has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in six out of his last 10 games. Keep in mind the Warriors are huge 15.5-point favorites so this could be a huge blowout and he sits down. But if the Knicks manage to stay in this you have a real shot at 50 fantasy points here tonight. I will say this and please take note. LeBron James is only $800 dollars more on FanDuel than Anthony. If something pops up later freeing up the $800 I do not have now I will move off of Anthony for LeBron in two seconds. But if not I am fine with Anthony and he is certainly more than likely going to produce more than the players below him which is the whole point of locking it down.

Evan Fournier for the price is about as great of a bargain as you will find at the three right now. His price on FanDuel is only $5,600 and he has been on fire scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last four. The matchup is also good with the Hornets allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to the three. Fournier is one of them Orlando players picking up the offense with so many injuries and as long as this continues he will remain a good play for the price.

Possible Value Plays

Otto Porter seems to be picking it up here and there and his price is dirt cheap at $4,500 on FanDuel. He has managed to score 34.9 and 26.7 fantasy points in his last two games and tonight faces a Bulls team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards. If you are looking to try and save at the three he is the best option under $5K playing in a game with a high 212.5 expected point total. If Wall sits tonight and Beal and he is left standing? Oh, boy. The Otto Pops could return to the Colvin house.

Thabo Sefolosha. Yup, I said that. This is a risky boom or bust play for that stars and scrubs GPP that should be low owned for a number of reasons. The matchup is horrible with Detroit allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards and this game has the lowest expected point total on the slate. All this moves DFS players off a player quickly. Then you add in the fact the player is Sefolosha who no one considers in a good matchup and you got a player who is less than two percent owned. Maybe less. In the last two games Sefolosha has scored 30.2 and 25 fantasy points. Will he do it again? Probably not. But, if you take him and he does? Well, let’s just say he is exactly what a stars and scrubs lineup should contain. Cheap players everyone hates that could surprise you.

Power Forward

Strategy

The power forward position feels like the Wal-Mart of positions. So much value everywhere but it is cheaply made and needs replacing often. You have decent plays at all price points here tonight and this is a great possible spot to nab another player for the stars and scrubs GPP tonight.

Core Players

The player I will be sure to throw in my stars and scrubs lineup tonight is Anthony Davis. He is the best option the Pelicans have and they use it. Although he is scary in a late game because anything could happen between now and tonight and he sits he remains the top option. He is back to scoring over 40 fantasy points nightly which for his price kind of sucks but what you are paying for with Davis is his upside. You want to hit him on that night when he drops 60 fantasy points like he did on March 9 versus the hornets. If he gets hot with little viable options for the Pelicans he can do this easily and all things certainly point to tonight having just a good a shot as any. I would not pay up for him in cash games but he is a must in GPP.

The player I could not wait to insert into my lineup for the price tonight was Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk is absolutely no jerk as he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight versus Detroit, Indiana, and Charlotte who all are less of defenders than the mighty Cavaliers but I am not deterred. He has been playing center and that is where it looks like he may start tonight. I have to tell you though that Cleveland is allowing the fewest fantasy ppg to the centers but most do not have the shot Dirk does.

The player I have paired with Dirk who I find an enormous value tonight is Serge Ibaka. Remember when he was over $6K? I do. His price is down to $5,400 on FanDuel facing a Celtics team that hands points over like candy at Halloween to power forwards to the tune of being 26^th in the league. Ibaka has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in two straight and I see no reason that does not hit 30 tonight in this one.

Aaron Gordon always lets me down when I take him and when I do not he goes off. For instance I jumped on him last night. He kind of stunk it up for his price. You need to get over 30 fantasy points out of him for his price to be worth it. The good news is he has done this six times in his last 10 games. He also is playing for a depleted offense facing a team allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Everything I see says he is going to have a good night and I will have exposure to him in one of my two lineups.

Possible Value Plays

OK, this section is going to be a bit crazy. We have a whole bunch of value here to go over and it is kind of a real pain in the ass. I really wish Memphis could just call “Mercy” and end their season. One thing you will always get out of Jerry Colvin (I love to speak about myself in third person) is thorough research. I have several forms of OCD. Trust me. This is one of them. Use these or not at your own risk but you should be aware they exist.

With Orlando hurting Jason Smith has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in two of his last three. He would benefit from the same matchup as Gordon and is the near minimum across the industry. Risky, but if Gordon gets into foul trouble than you strike gold. Truth be told he should play over 20 minutes anyway having done so in five out of the last six games. Stars and Scrubs here.

Willie Cauley-Stein who was a regular for a few days and then completely died off is back. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight and is seeing increased minutes with the Kings equally banged up as most. He is the near minimum as well across the industry and another candidate for that stars and scrubs.

Derrick Williams for the near minimum also has put together a run of four straight games scoring over 20 fantasy ppg. Tonight he would come off the bench to face the Warriors in what could be a better matchup with Golden State allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but he might be facing their bench as well. That changes things. Yup, you guessed it. Stars and Scrubs here.

Trying to hit on the Memphis side of things lately is task I keep striking out on. I am the Adam Dunn of selecting Memphis Grizzlies. It seems there is no rhyme or reason to it. So, with that being said check this out. Jarrell Martin for $3,900 on FanDuel has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in two of his last four while Alex Stepheson has scored 20 and 30 fantasy points respectively in the last two and is also the near minimum. Which one do you choose? Of the two I would use Stepheson which means Martin is probably gold. Memphis hates me. Perhaps to many Kaplan references pissed them off? Either way once again both are stars and scrubs worthy.

I hope you enjoyed my special stars and scrubs edition of the power forward section today.

Center

Strategy

I do not like to mess around at center. There are several decent plays but only two that grab me and that is all I will be using.

Core Players

I do not care about 5X value, 6X value, or any of that versus price when it comes to DeMarcus Cousins. When you hear people say things like, “I will not roster Boogie because at his price he has to net 70 fantasy points to achieve value, blah, blah, blah”.

Total crap I say and ignorance. The whole reason a player like Boogie is so expensive is because of the simple fact the word 70 fantasy points and Boogie can be in the same sentence. Would you say 70 fantasy points and Andrew Bogut? No, and that is why Bogut is $4,800 and Boogie is an enormous $11,100. Do you take him at that salary in cash games, why not? If the slate offers enough decent value at other positions to allow it. What I am trying to say here is in GPP if Boogie goes off tonight and scores 60 or 70 fantasy points facing a Pelicans team allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to centers and you follow the advice of these “value mongers” than you are already done. The same goes for cash games. It may seem difficult but the longer you do this the easier it becomes to fit a Boogie in your lineup. Playing DFS is like anything else in life. The longer you do it the better you become and the easier you sniff out the bullshit.

Either you spend up for Boogie or go cheap. That is how I feel most nights.

The player I absolutely love tonight is Enes Kanter. I am just curious? How many straight games of scoring over 30 fantasy ppg does it take to consider a player cash game relevant? Because Kanter has done it in five out of his last six games and guess what? The other one he scored 26.4 fantasy points. The Thunder finally appreciate him It seems and tonight he gets a great matchup facing a Celtics team allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers. For his price of $5,200 on FanDuel he is my top choice tonight.

Possible Value Plays

If you wanted to save a few bucks and I am even considering doing this myself right now to upgrade from Anthony to James at the three then Steven Adams might be a decent play. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four out of his last five with two of them hitting the 25 mark. You have to consider this. If he puts up 25 fantasy points tonight and Kanter puts up 30 for $900 more who is the better play? Considering I need $800 to pair James and Durant together it may be a good move. Adams is better suited for GPP plays. Plus truth be told I still love me some Melo in the late game to make it interesting.

I cannot believe I got this done today again. I feel like total poop…still. Good luck tonight.

GO DODGERS!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.