NBA DFS Position Coach: March 15, 2016

So I went to New Jersey this weekend for a fantasy baseball live auction draft. My buddy Brian Ambos put this league together. It was a great time and I met a lot of good people. Plus, I got to hang with my boy Corey Parson aka the Fantasy Exec (SiriusXM and Scout Fantasy) who was our auctioneer. If you have never participated in a live auction draft I recommend you try it.

Yesterday I started shivering while I was shopping at BJ’s wholesale. As I walked past the deli section the horrible thought occurred to me that maybe I am getting sick. You see, this is a luxury I cannot afford. I have to run my bar, my EBay store, my marriage (kind of), and, of course, write this Position Coach article for you. The sad part is I was right. I spent the whole afternoon in bed yesterday and I still have a raging fever as I sit here writing this article. My eyes hurt, my head hurts, and sadly my wallet hurts as I have been absolutely getting killed lately in DFS NBA.

We have a nice six-game slate tonight, but for DFS purposes we really only have five. I see no need to attack any players in the Clippers-Spurs game tonight outside of GPP play with so many better options out there. We also do not have an overabundance of superstars to choose from which makes building a balanced lineup a little easier.

So with a throbbing head and a horrible regret for not checking my NFBC slow draft yesterday (Auto draft: Michael Cuddyer) I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Strategy

The point guard position offers little in the way of superstars tonight outside Isaiah Thomas, Chris Paul, and Kyle Lowry who I will have zero exposure to. I believe the way to go tonight is to spend in the middle of the pack for pricing at this position.

Core Players

In five out of his last seven games Emmanuel Mudiay has scored over 30 fantasy ppg including one 45.7 fantasy point performance versus the Nets on March 4. This game has the second highest expected point total of the evening at 211 with the Magic being five-point favorites so that means it should stay fairly close. The Magic are also allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to point guards and his price is only $6,100 on FanDuel. I already locked him into my lineup for tonight.

Ish Smith is in a spot to really shine tonight. The Sixers, much like the Grizzlies, are so depleted that the players are all playing heavy minutes right now which for DFS purposes is fantasy gold. The Nets are seven-point favorites tonight in a game with a nice 208.5 expected point total. The Nets are also allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Smith has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark versus the Wizards and Heat. He is fairly priced across the industry and ranks so close to Mudiay tonight it is scary.

Darren Collison is playing at the two tonight facing a Lakers team that allows the most fantasy ppg overall and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. I expect Rajon Rondo to feed the ball to him and DeMarcus Cousins all night tonight. This game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 217.5 and the Kings are only 2.5-point favorites. In Collison’s last three games he has scored 38, 25.4, and 25.9 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Cavaliers, Magic, and Jazz. Tonight he gets the LAKERS…come on.

Possible Value Plays

The Philadelphia 76ers tonight are a giant value pot. As earlier mentioned they are decimated with injuries right now opening the door for every warm body to play heavy minutes. Isaiah Canaan is starting in the two tonight facing a Nets team that is allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Canaan has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three out of his last four games and is the minimum to near minimum across the industry.

Shooting Guard

Strategy

The shooting guard slot is very thin tonight on FanDuel. When you remove J.J. Redick and Danny Green (as earlier mentioned this game is a complete fade) then take away Collison (in the PG slot on Fanduel) and \Canaan (also in PG slot on Fanduel) that leaves little to choose from. Then you see Monta Ellis and Gary Harris have putrid matchups. Who’s left? Not Wayne Ellington that is for sure and I am done taking a chance on Markel Brown. That only leaves five shooting guards to choose from. Thankfully FanDuel has Kobe Bryant in the SG slot still for some reason but that matters little because if you are dumb enough to take Kobe at 10:30 pm on FanDuel then you deserve to lose. I mean this in the nicest way possible, of course.

Core Players

I am loving me some Victor Oladipo tonight and I am not afraid to tell the world. Not only does he have the third highest usage rate among the huge selection of shooting guards on the slate (sarcasm) but he also has a sweet matchup with the Nuggets allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to the two. He is averaging well over 30 fantasy ppg in this last four games almost hitting the 40 mark (39.8 on FanDuel) versus a Warriors team that defends the two well. His price is $7K but with little to choose from and not a lot of superstars to pay up for, I see no reason why you do not spend up here.

DeMar DeRozan is a great play any night. Let’s face it. He is the next-best shooting guard next to James Harden in my opinion. Not only did he drop 63.5 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Heat on March 12 but he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in nine out of his last 10 games also hitting the 40 mark twice. The Bucks are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and if you do not spend up heavily at the three tonight you should at least grab DeRozan.

I actually find watching the Lakers rather enjoyable lately. Growing up in Southern California my father and I used to attend several games at the Forum when they played there. I have seen Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and the guy who has some of the best 80’s basketball cards…Kurt Rambis. I was at A.C. Green’s first game and attended more than one championship game in the glory days of the NBA. I was a die-hard Lakers fan up until about 10 years ago. Although I have never lost my love for the Dodgers I did, however, end up oddly enough a Celtics fan. My beloved Lakers’ bitter childhood rivals.

Jordan Clarkson has a great matchup tonight facing a Kings team allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Prior to the last game where he only played 22 minutes, he was playing well into the 30 minute range and should get back to that tonight. Clarkson has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in two out of his last four games including one stinker versus the Cavaliers on March 10 where he only put up 11.7 fantasy points on FanDuel. His price is back down to $5,700 and he is a great complimentary piece to add in with an Oladipo or DeRozan tonight. The only concern is Lou Williams return could continue to eat into Clarkson’s minutes if Williams gets hot.

Possible Value Plays

If you can believe it the value here lies with the Sixers. Nik Stauskus in his last game played 26 minutes scoring 25.4 fantasy points on FanDuel. The problem with Stauskus is he is scoring dependent. He may get an assist or two and a few rebounds but nothing fantasy worthy. If he comes out cold you are dead in the water but the minutes should be here tonight for him and he has a great matchup off the bench facing Brooklyn. For the minimum price if you wanted to take a stab at what should be a fairly low owned player then Stauskus could be your guy no matter how risky.

Small Forward

Strategy

Much like the shooting guard position we are thin at small forward as well tonight. You can’t take Kobe, you won’t take Luis Scola, Jakarr Sampson, James Johnson, or Luc Richard Mbah a Moute whose name I hope I never have to type again. You could take Kawhi Leonard but I see no reason to force a bad matchup in a game with the lowest expected point total. What does that leave? Well, read below.

Core Players

Realistically Kawhi Leonard has a better matchup than Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight but the truth is, if I am going to spend up I much prefer to do it on a player like the Greek God. Although Kawhi is the model of consistency I am the kind of guy who prefers upside. Something that Giannis has much more of than Kawhi. You see, Kawhi will get you 40 fantasy points but the Greek God could get you 60 fantasy points on FanDuel. Something he has done now four times in his last 10 games versus the Rockets (60.7), Timberwolves (61.8), Thunder (67.4), and Nets (71.2). The Raptors are allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but he is the Greek God after all.

Although I like Paul George he scares the crap out of me for his price. His game log is so up and down it makes a roller coaster at Six Flags look boring. If I am going to take a chance tonight at inconsistency then I much prefer to save and go Rudy Gay. Tonight he faces a Lakers team allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and the Kings have the highest expected team total on the slate at 110. He has put up two straight stinkers failing to score 20 fantasy points but I cannot think of a better team to turn it around against than the worst defense in the NBA. By the way, Gay is averaging 17.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, four assists, and 2.3 blocks per game versus the Lakers this season which equals more than 30 fantasy ppg.

In three out of his last four games Evan Turner has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg. The matchup tonight is tough one versus the Pacers who are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards but Brad Stevens seems to be committed to using him which means his minutes should stay where they are, around 30. His price is fair across the industry and bad matchup or not with little to choose from he is a viable option to pair with either of the two above.

Possible Value Plays

If you really want to save then you could use Hollis Thompson or Bojan Bogdanovic tonight. Of the two I prefer Bogdanovic with the Sixers allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards plus he has shown some 30 fantasy point upside in the past (versus the Lakers on March 1). I believe him to be the better GPP play of the two though because I find him more inconsistent than Thompson.

Thompson, like the rest of the team, should play heavy minutes tonight. The Nets are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Thompson has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in two of his last three well also showing some 30 fantasy point upside (versus the Heat on March 4). Keep in mind that much like Bojan he can hand you a stinker with a smile on his face. Of course, that is what makes them value plays right?

Power Forward

Strategy

We have a lot of options tonight at this position and plenty in good matchups. In fact, out of 12 starting power forwards seven are good options tonight. That is where my job comes into play. Which are the best? That question will not be answered until later tonight but here is the players I like.

Core Players

Donald Sloan, Wayne Ellington, and Bojan Bogdanovic. That is the other starting players on the Nets besides Brook Lopez. That is why Thaddeus Young is such an awesome play tonight. Not only does he face a Sixers team allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards but he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in two straight including a 37.8 fantasy point night on FanDuel versus the same Sixers. And I already named his shooting competition on the floor. His price is $7,000 on FanDuel which I find a bit high myself but regardless he is the top play and is cash game and GPP viable tonight.

Myles Turner is back to the guy that had all of us running to our waiver wires in leagues to grab. Half of which have since dropped him. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight including a 30 spot versus the Hawks in his last game. His price is only $5,000 on FanDuel and he is facing my beloved Celtics who defend the frontcourt terribly allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Turner should have a free for all tonight and I will have exposure to him somewhere.

Aaron Gordon’s price has also risen. It is up to $6,700 on FanDuel. The funny thing is we all bitched about the pricing including myself and they are fixing it. But, $6,700 for Gordon is a bit high (I am probably only saying this because if he was a few hundred cheaper I could get him into my current lineup). I just think he is more of a $6,200 player. Anyhow, Gordon is facing a Denver team allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three out of his last four games including a 40 spot versus the Warriors.

Julius Randle should continue to see a healthy workload tonight facing a Kings team allowing the 29^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Much like most of the Lakers starters he played limited minute’s last game but should be back to full action tonight. Randle has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three out of his last five games and should hit that mark again tonight.

Possible Value Plays

Did you know Carl Landry has the second highest usage rate among power forwards on the slate? I find this almost as amazing as Shelvin Mack’s. Who, by the way, I have been telling you all to grab and play in DFS now for quite some time. Check my older articles if you do not believe me. These usage rates, although not the only source of research, are a useful tool. When a guy has a high usage rate it tells you he has a chance. And on most nights that is all we can ask for. The Nets are allowing the 19^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Landry has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three out of his last four games just missing the 30 mark in two of them (28.4 and 28.7 fantasy points on FanDuel). His price is only $4,400 and I am going to call it, he gets that 30 burger tonight.

Center

Strategy

Much like the power forward position I find the center position equally stacked. I expect most people to jump on Brook Lopez and by no means is he a bad play but if I am going to spend up I want to shoot for the upside. I would fit some key players in the other positions first where you do not have as many options and determine which center to use tonight by how much money you have left. I find the two and the three the essential positions to lock down tonight before spending up on centers or power forwards for they both offer greater value.

Core Players

I knew the minute I looked at the slate and saw the Kings playing the Lakers in the late game I was going to make sure to find a way to play DeMarcus Cousins. Although I do not find him necessary to win tonight and his price is surely high I cannot think of a better team to use him against. The Lakers are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to centers and Boogie has the ability to drop 70 fantasy points on a great night. I am banking on tonight being that night hopefully allowing me to boogie all the way to the bank.

The center I find to be the greatest value on the slate tonight is Ian Mahinmi. The Celtics like previously mentioned guard the frontcourt horribly allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers. Mahinmi has a low price of only $5,100 on FanDuel and he is a player who could easily grab you over 30 fantasy points tonight. Something he has done in the past where he scored 32.3 fantasy points on FanDuel versus the Hornets on March 4.

Possible Value Plays

Jonas Valaciunas left Monday’s game with an injury to his left hand. If he does not play tonight this opens the door for Bismack Biyombo. In the last 10 games he has only played over 25 minutes in three of them. The thing is he produced quite well scoring 27.7, 24.5, and 25.2 while playing 29 minutes once and 26 minutes twice. This tells me you have a real shot at 30 fantasy points here if he plays 30 minutes tonight. His price is the near minimum across the industry and he would get a great matchup facing a Milwaukee team that allows the 20^th most fantasy ppg to centers. I may even move off of Boogie for him. May.

I cannot believe I got this done today. I feel like total poop. Good luck tonight.

GO DODGERS!

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.