NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 18, 2015

The NBA slate pretty well divided Monday, with six afternoon games and four evening games for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. My preference, if you can get your lineups in early enough, is to play a full day slate, since it provides the most options and flexibility. I have tried to select players from both the afternoon and evening games for every position, but be sure to play close attention to which teams play when. No matter which slate you play, the best bet is probably to go stars and scrubs. I want at least one stud point guard in every lineup, and I like a lot of the expensive centers, as well. You should be able to save money at just about every position, especially shooting guard.

Point Guard

I wish I could play five point guards in my fantasy lineups Monday. I like a lot of the studs, but there are some very nice, cheap plays as well. Your best bet may be to pair one of the studs with one of the cheap plays, especially if you intend to spend up at center or shooting guard.

The Rockets are last in the NBA in opponent’s steals and assists. Chris Paul is third and seventh in those categories, respectively. It also doesn’t hurt the Rockets played Sunday while the Clippers were off.

Chris Paul’s fantasy prospects would be even brighter if Patrick Beverley is out or limited. Beverley was available for Sunday’s game but did not play, and he is questionable. Ty Lawson had 12 points and five assists Sunday, and could be useful if you need a cheap point guard Monday.

The Trail Blazers are third in the NBA in opponent’s points over the last 10 games. They face the Wizards Monday, and with Bradley Beal playing limited minutes and Otto Porter Jr. questionable, John Wall is the only sure thing for a team that should score a lot of points.

As much as I love Chris Paul and John Wall, Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas offer similar upside at a slightly cheaper price. Lowry has an excellent shot at his fourth double-double of the month against a Brooklyn team that has allowed the third-most assists in the NBA. Thomas on the other hand faces the Mavericks, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Thomas has scored at least 30 points in three of his last five games.

Elfrid Payton hasn’t played more than 24 minutes in a game since December 26, but that will likely change Monday. Payton should return to the starting lineup with Victor Oladipo out, and I expect the points and assists to return along with the minutes. Payton is extremely cheap, especially on FantasyFeud, and he is a great player to pair with John Wall or Chris Paul.

Jeremy Lamb has missed two consecutive games, and Jeremy Lin has an excellent shot to play at least 30 minutes if Lamb is out again. Lin has scored at least 12 points in nine of his last 11 games.

Shooting Guard

As is often the case, I am probably either paying for James Harden or going cheap at shooting guard. Harden is always a DFS consideration, but his matchup with the Clippers Monday seems particularly favorable. Only the Trail Blazers and Celtics have allowed more free throw attempts than the Clippers this season, and no player has as many free throw attempts per game as James Harden. Harden is averaging 32.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 12.0 free throw attempts in two games against the Clippers this season.

The other main beneficiary from Victor Oladipo’s absence is Evan Fournier. Fournier scored at least 18 points in both of the games Oladipo has missed this season, and he is an excellent play despite a tough matchup with the Hawks.

Garrett Temple has played at least 28 minutes in 15 consecutive games, scoring at least 10 points in 10 of those games. Temple is a strong cash game play, especially if Otto Porter sits for the third straight game.

Arron Afflalo has averaged 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against the 76ers this season, and he would likely get more shots if Carmelo Anthony is out or limited. Afflalo has at least 11 points in four consecutive games.

C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe are better for fantasy when Damian Lilliard is out, but they have been pretty good since Lillard returned, too. Crabbe especially is pretty cheap for somebody averaging 11.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.4 steals in January. The Wizards have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, McCollum could be an especially useful alternative for fantasy players who want to pay for a shooting guard without breaking the bank on James Harden.

Small Forward

Opponents are shooting 43.6 percent from beyond the arc against the Trail Blazers over the last 10 games, and Jared Dudley has made 1.8 threes per game in January. Dudley is averaging nearly 33 minutes per game this month, making him a relatively safe DFS play Monday.

If Otto Porter is out, his absence may be felt the most on the defensive end. The Wizards don’t really have anybody who can match up with Al-Farouq Aminu. Look for Aminu to bounce back after a poor game against the 76ers Saturday.
The Bulls have struggled against small forwards in general—and Marcus Morris in particular—this season. Morris has at least 12 points, four rebounds and five assists in each of his last two games, and he could easily make it three in-a-row against the Bulls.

I am a bit concerned Carmelo Anthony will return but play limited minutes, but if he is active he will probably be in at least one of my lineups. Philadelphia has struggled to defend post-ups, and Carmelo has a 44.9 Effective Field Goal Percentage in post-ups this season.

Power Forward

As they did the first time injured his shoulder, Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis stand to see increased minutes with Joakim Noah out. Portis is a nice value on FanDuel and FantasyFeud, and he will save you money you can spend on point guards or a center. Gibson is the safer play, but does not have the tournament upside of Portis.

Only the Nuggets get blocked more often than the 76ers, and Kristaps Porzingis is averaging nearly two blocks per game. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards, and Porzingis could benefit if Carmelo is out, as well.

Tristan Thompson is sixth in offensive rebounds this season, and the Golden State Warriors have allowed the second-most offensive rebounds in the NBA.  Thompson played 27 minutes against Golden State on Christmas Day, and he could play even more Monday. I especially like his price on DraftKings.

Paul Millsap is often my go-to when I have money to spend at power forward and nobody to spend it on. Draymond Green and Anthony Davis are tempting, but Millsap is safer, cheaper, is playing at home and he has the better matchup.

Center

Andre Drummond is averaging 20.5 points and 15.8 rebounds per 36 minutes against the Bulls this season. If he comes close to those numbers Monday, you will wish you had him in your DFS lineups. The Bulls have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

The Rockets have allowed the second-highest opponents’ shooting percentage inside of six feet, which is, of course, where DeAndre Jordan does most of his damage. DeAndre is averaging 14.0 points, 14.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks with Blake Griffin out, and is worth playing despite his high price tag.

The Celtics have allowed the third-most opponent’s rebounds this season, and Zaza Pachulia is accounting for 41.5 percent of Dallas’s rebounds when he is on the floor. Pachulia has played well lately, averaging 12.3 rebounds per game over his last 10 games.

In his lone game against the Nets this season, Jonas Valanciunas had 22 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. Given how little effort Brook Lopez gives on the defensive end, a repeat performance would not be surprising.

Finally, if you are playing the early slate and cannot afford Andre Drummond, Marcin Gortat is a reasonable alternative. Portland does not really have anybody to bang with Gortat inside, and Gortat could easily collect his 19^th double-double of the season.