NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: March 14

Despite nine games on the docket Monday, I had a hard time finding guys I really wanted to play. The guys I like I tend to really like, but after that I kind of had the DFS equivalent of writer’s block. When I get in those situations I try to go back to the basics: players facing fast-paced teams and studs who should give me something, even if the value isn’t fantastic. When in doubt, target the Rockets, and the Suns.

Point Guard

Ray McCallum played 27 minutes off the bench in his Memphis debut, and it is likely only a matter of time before he starts getting more minutes than Briante Weber. McCallum had 13 points, four rebounds, two assists and two steals in that game, and he has a great matchup against the Rockets Monday. I don’t see how you can pass up that kind of value.

Kyle Lowry is averaging 25.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists in three games against the Bulls this season, and he had at least 22 points and eight assists in each of those games. Lowry is just as safe as the top point guards Monday, even if his ceiling isn’t quite as high.

No team has allowed as many fantasy points to opposing point guards as the Phoenix Suns, and Ricky Rubio has three double-doubles in his last four games. He will be an excellent value if he can get another double-double Monday.

Goran Dragic is averaging 17.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists in four games with Dwyane Wade out. Dragic is a nice mid-priced option if Wade sits.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler is averaging 34.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists in six games with Derrick Rose out this season, and he would be a great DFS play with Rose out. E’Twaun Moore is not nearly as exciting for fantasy, but he should start at point guard if Rose sits, and his price is relatively low. Moore topped 17 points in two of the last four games Rose has missed.

The Suns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, and Zach LaVine is averaging 19.5 points per game against them this season. LaVine is averaging 17.5 ppg in March.

If you are looking for somebody who falls between Jimmy Butler and Zach LaVine, you can’t go wrong with Klay Thompson. The Pelicans are fifth in the NBA in opponent’s three-point percentage, and Thompson has made at least three threes in each of his last four games.

Small Forward

It feels like shooting guard and small forward have flip-flopped Monday. Usually at shooting guard I either go cheap or play James Harden. Instead, shooting guard feels pretty diverse, while small forward features four cheap options and Kevin Durant.

Dwyane Wade did not play Saturday with a bruised right thigh, leading Joe Johnson and Justise Winslow to each play 43 minutes. Johnson has a lot more upside, but Winslow will likely provide better bang for the buck. Both are playable if Wade sits Monday.

Lance Stephenson is probably about due to fall on his face, but it would be really impressive if he managed to do that against a Rockets team that has allowed more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than any team in the NBA. Stephenson has at least 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists in three of his last four games, and he just needs to hit those benchmarks to be worth his price Monday.

Kevin Durant is averaging 30.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists over his last 10 games. I would probably rather spend up at another position, but if you want to go big at small forward, I like Durant over LeBron James or Gordon Hayward.

Mike Dunleavy is a game-time decision, and while the Bulls have a bunch of small forward options, including moving Jimmy Butler or Nikola Mirotic there, I suspect Doug McDermott will get most of the minutes. McDermott has proven he can make a bunch of threes if he gets 30 minutes or more, but he is more of a GPP play even though his price makes him tempting for cash games.

Power Forward

Much like small forward, I’m probably not breaking the bank at power forward. Much like small forward, if I am paying up, I’m going all the way to the top. Anthony Davis has at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in five consecutive games, and he had 26 points and 15 rebounds in his last matchup with the Warriors. Go big or go home.

Taj Gibson, Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic should all see increased minutes with Pau Gasol out Monday. Gibson is by far the safest play, but Portis and Mirotic have intriguing upside, especially for GPP lineups. Portis is a nice value on FanDuel, while Gibson’s DraftKings price is hard to pass up.

JaMychal Green came crashing back down to earth against the Hawks Saturday, but I like his chances to bounce back Monday. Houston’s defensive deficiencies have been well documented, and Green should play plenty of minutes if Zach Randolph is out again.

Much like small forward, I’m probably not breaking the bank at power forward. Much like small forward, if I am paying up, I’m going all the way to the top. Anthony Davis has at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in five consecutive games, and he had 26 points and 15 rebounds in his last matchup with the Warriors. Go big or go home.

Center

I usually need a pretty good reason to play a center other than the one facing the Bulls, and I don’t see a good reason Monday. Jonas Valanciunas has four double-doubles in his last five games, including 20 points and 10 rebounds against the Heat Saturday. He had 25 points and 12 rebounds in his last game against the Bulls, and he should dominate inside Monday, especially with Pau Gasol out. If you need a much cheaper option, Bismack Biyombo is averaging 7.2 rebounds over his last 10 games and the Bulls are allowing the second-most opponent’s rebounds this season.

Nikola Jokic laid another egg Saturday following a string of very good play, and the only thing that made it different from the other times it has happened this season is he wasn’t in any of my DFS lineups. That could change Monday. Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne are both game-time decisions, and Jokic would almost have to play 30 minutes if those guys sit. I won’t pretend this isn’t risky, but I will feel much better about taking the risk if Nurkic and Lauvergne sit.

The Memphis Grizzlies are seventh in opponent’s rebounds and 10^th in opponent’s blocks since the All-Star break. Those numbers could bode well for Dwight Howard, who had at least 12 points and 14 rebounds in two of his three games against the Grizzlies, all before the All-Star break.