NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 1, 2015

Jennifer and I went to buy a Christmas tree last night. About every three years we go and buy a new plastic one for the kids to destroy and the cat to try and drag down. They have some pretty impressive fake trees nowadays although I find that the price of them has risen considerably in the last three years. It was just under a $100 which I find outrageous. For that price they should come with the presents all wrapped and placed neatly underneath.

Among other things, the girls are handing in their Christmas lists. I am not quite sure why we do this to ourselves. For the most part, they are usually pretty unreasonable. One of the loveable money gulping machines never gets the concept of how much her list actually costs. Last year it was a whole page of electronics that totaled more than our entire budget for everyone.

I also noticed when I came home from work yesterday, our entire living room had changed into Santa’s play land. Upon further inspection I could not help but notice the strategic placement of mistletoe by my lovely wife in pretty much every spot I hang out. I think she is trying to tell me something.

So with Christmas music playing in the background, the smell of bacon cooking (Jennifer is making me breakfast), and our elf on the shelf “Snowflake” staring at me I bring you today’s position coach.

We have a nice six game slate and outside of a player to two, I see no need to spend up tonight. I think the mid-priced reliable guys are the way to go in cash games except for one guy I feel you have to pay for tonight; someone who we will get to later.

Point Guard

Brandon Knight left a bad taste in my mouth at the DFS player’s conference in NYC this year as he put up only 10.2 fantasy points and left me without a trip to the Playboy mansion. Since then he has been consistently putting up decent numbers. He is averaging over 21 points, five rebounds, four assists, and 35 fantasy ppg. Tonight, facing a Brooklyn defense allowing 22.7 ppg to the SG position (where he is actually starting) and the 24^th most fantasy points, I find the upside hard to pass on. A great play in any format.

The Pelicans are one point favorites tonight in a game with an expected point total of 201.5. The Pelicans are also allowing the most fantasy points in the NBA to the PG position and a whopping 26.3 ppg to boot. This makes Mike Conley almost impossible to pass up tonight. Conley has scored more than 30 fantasy points in six of the last eight games and should easily get all of that tonight. The price has risen on him a bit as of late but he is still a great buy tonight.

Over the last four games, Ish Smith has scored 45.8, 42.5, 37.8, and 31.2 fantasy points on FanDuel. His price is still fair across the industry and tonight he faces a Memphis team that allows 24.8 ppg to the PG position. Smith has played more than 30 minutes in seven straight and has three double-doubles over the last five. Kind of hard to ignore numbers like these.

The Phoenix Suns versus the Brooklyn Nets is slated to be the highest scoring game of the night with an expected point total of 206. The Suns are also allowing 25.2 ppg to point guards on the season which leads us to Jarrett Jack.who has been inconsistent on the season and comes with risk. He is, however, averaging over 28 fantasy ppg and certainly gets a great matchup tonight. He has eclipsed the 40 fantasy point mark three times in the last 10 games and certainly has a shot tonight.

I find all the value with the Sixers tonight hard to pass on. I also find it hard to pass on any team facing the Lakers. With the Lakers 1 ½ point favorites tonight I expect Philly to give them a run for their money. The guy I am using in cash games with Knight tonight is Isaiah Canaan. He has scored in the double-digits in five straight games and is averaging over 24 fantasy ppg over the last five. His price remains dirt cheap at $4,400 on FanDuel, a price I cannot pass up.

Shooting Guard

If you are going to spend up on shooting guards today then without a doubt Eric Bledsoe is the way to go. The Nets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg and 23.2 ppg to the two on the season. In five of the last 10 games Bledsoe has scored more than 40 fantasy points which, if you are good at math, is half the time. He scored 20 points, 11 assists, and five rebounds versus the Raptors on Sunday and is in a spot tonight to easily put up over 40 fantasy points. Expensive, but you should get what you pay for.

Zach LaVine has scored over 30 fantasy points in three straight games and has scored in the double-digits in 12 straight, putting up more than 20 three times. The Orlando Magic are allowing the 26^th most fantasy points to shooting guards and 20.5 ppg and in an expected close game (MIN -1.5) he is the guy I am running in my cash games. The price versus upside is hard to pass on.

The other fellow who I will be using tonight along with LaVine in my cash games is Eric Gordon. I believe in the jinx so I am probably killing myself tonight by typing this but I have had great luck with Gordon. I used him five times this season and got more than 30 fantasy ppg four times with the other being 20.6 versus the Clippers in a GPP lineup on Friday night. He is averaging 26 fantasy ppg and tonight faces the Grizzlies who are allowing 21 ppg to shooting guards. For the low price of $5,600 and a chance of getting a plus 30 score tonight I am on him faster than Dee…Gordon.

Tonight’s slate offers little in the way of super value plays. Depending on what you consider value. I consider anytime I get more than 25 fantasy ppg out of a player under $6,000 decent value. We have people who do math to determine what true value is and what is not but I have my own system. When building a lineup I write each player down and what I hope to get out of them for the night. I try to build a lineup that totals around 350 points on FanDuel. More often than not I hit 300. So, why fix what is not broken.

Joe Johnson gets you more exposure tonight to the Suns / Nets game with the highest expected point total of the evening. The Suns are slight favorites in what should be a close game which eliminates the blowout factor getting the most minutes out of the starters. Johnson is scoring into the double-digits most nights and has scored 17 twice in the last four games. We do have some slight risk here as he has put up a few stinkers but tonight facing a 27^th ranked Phoenix defense versus the SG position he is a viable option for sure.

I am not going to lie, I kind of like C.J. McCollum tonight as a GPP play. He has a horrible matchup versus the Nuggets that are allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is also in this matchup way too high. He is averaging almost 30 fantasy ppg and can go off on any night. I am just not sure if I like him because I find myself searching too hard for a fifth guy to write about or if I am actually going to use him.

Small Forward

With very little in the way of superstars tonight we lucked out that one of the two on the slate happened to fall in the best matchup ever. The Washington Wizards are allowing the most fantasy ppg on the season in the NBA to small forwards. They also are allowing an incredible 25.4 ppg as well. I would take a scrub bench player against a defense like this. So this left little doubt in my mind that LeBron James would be the guy I built my cash game lineup around tonight. Every lineup actually. He has consistently gotten it done year after year and is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg this one. He has seven double-doubles this season so far and has scored more than 30 points five times. He is more overdue for a triple-double than the Sixers are for a win, which they are getting tonight. As pretentious as his moniker is tonight he is the king on the slate.

Getting back to the Sixer / Lakers game tonight the other guy I am pairing with James tonight is Robert Covington. In the last three games his scores on FanDuel are 39.8, 57.9, and 34.4. His price is low for these scores at $6,400 on FanDuel. You add in the matchup tonight facing the Lakers who are allowing over 20 ppg to the SF position and Covington will be the new crowned prince. There can be only one king.

Although the price is a little high in my opinion Andrew Wiggins is in a good spot on small slate. In the last ten games Wiggins has only scored less than 25 fantasy points once (24.3 versus ATL on 11/25). I know for his price that is not good but for a bottom line 24.3 if he was to put up a stinker is a good stinker at least. He is averaging over 29 fantasy ppg and has that high 30 point upside facing a Magic team in the bottom half defensively versus the SF position.

There is very little I like on the Washington side of things tonight but one guy I go to the well with quite often for his low price is Otto Porter. He is building an army to dethrone the king tonight and forever claim the Ottoman Empire. As of late he has been a bit of a letdown so fate is against him. He does have timing on his side with Cleveland allowing nearly 20 ppg to small forwards. So with his fantasy ppg averaging over 23 and his price low at $5,400 on FanDuel Porter will lead his battalion into battle.

I really searched for a viable cheap cash game punt play but the truth is at the time of writing I see little. One guy who does have some upside for cheap though is T.J. Warren. The Brooklyn Nets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Warren has scored 40.2 and 36.2 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last two games. His price is only $4,400 and I see no reason if he gets the minutes why he will not have another great night tonight. I may end up swapping out Covington later for him in my cash game lineups.

Power Forward

The top option at PF tonight without a doubt in my opinion if you want to spend is Kevin Love. The Wizards are everything but magic allowing 21.9 ppg to power forwards. He is averaging almost 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 38 fantasy ppg and should have no problem dominating tonight. He is a great play in any format. At some point by the time my cash game lineup is done I plan on finding a way to get him in.

If you do not want to pay for Love, even though in the end we all do then take a look at Zach Randolph. Even though some sites has his status as out unless there is something I am missing he played on Sunday night and made an immediate impact putting up over 30 fantasy points with a double-double. When healthy you can count on Randolph to provide you with decent fantasy numbers and tonight he gets the Pelicans who are allowing 20.3 ppg to power forwards.

About the only Laker I am willing to use tonight is Julius Randle. The rookie has been impressive in my opinion and clearly has a future in the NBA. He is averaging over 11 points and eight rebounds per game and has three double-doubles in the last five games. His price is low on FanDuel at $5,900 and tonight he faces a Sixers team allowing the 27^th most fantasy points to the PF position and just to make it sweeter they are averaging 23 ppg as well.

You want to save money how about Jerami Grant. In my opinion because the Sixers are so bad they often fall under the radar to DFS players. Grant has averaged 28 fantasy ppg over the last two and tonight he faces a Lakers team allowing the 25^th most fantasy points to the PF position on the season. For the low price of $4,800 on FanDuel I find him almost irresistible.

The next three guys are all just outside of what I like in cash game play but worthy of notation tonight. Anthony Davis I just simply refuse to play in any cash games. The paper cash is made out of is stronger than Davis who leaves the game often. But in GPP he always makes a fine play that should be low owned. The Grizzlies are allowing the 24^th most fantasy points to the PF position but are allowing the fewest ppg at 16. These reverse numbers drive me crazy and make for a highly unpredictable outcome. I would only use him in GPP.

Aaron Gordon and Tristan Thompson both rank equally in my cost versus value meter tonight.  Gordon has the upside to give you over 20 fantasy points for the low price of $4,000 on FanDuel. The problem is he also has the downside to give you 10 points as well. Thompson is consistent and tonight with the Bulls being 9 ½ point favorites he might see some extra minutes. If you were going to use one of the two in a cash game Thompson gets the edge consistency wise but his price is reflective at $5,600.

Center

The New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the most fantasy points to centers in the NBA. So Marc Gasol is a good place to start. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and gives you double-double potential nightly. This game is going to be a back and forth affair and Gasol should be an active participant who finds himself right in the middle of the action. He could have his best night of the season tonight.

My cash game lineup tonight is going to be Sixers heavy. The funny thing is one of the first things I did after putting in the king was insert Jahlil Okafor. Not only is he one of my favorite rookies to watch next to Kristaps Porzingis my little elven buddy but he also dominates on the court. He is averaging over 17 points, eight rebounds, and 30 fantasy ppg. He has six double-doubles this season with several near misses and should get all of that and more tonight facing the Lakers who allowing the 28^th most fantasy points and 21.3 ppg to centers. All in here 100-percent on Okafor.

You drive down the fancy dirt driveway to the beautiful entry gate. The security guy approaches your window to ascertain your business. You roll down your window and get the smell of a fresh cut grass and horse manure as it flows in with the warm breeze. The sign above the gate reads, “Green Acres”. You politely look up at the guard and say, “Is ZaZa here?”

ZaZa Pachulia continues to be an absolute monster on the court for the price. He has four double-doubles in the last five games and is averaging over 10 points and nine rebounds per game. In five of the last seven games he has scored more than 30 fantasy points and should easily do it again tonight facing a Portland team allowing the 24^th most fantasy points to centers and 21.5ppg. Not to mention you get a late bullet.

You want a boom or bust play tonight? How about Alex Len. He is slated to start and his price is the minimum on FanDuel at $3,500. The Nets are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy points to centers and 21.2 ppg to compliment it. If he gets the minutes he could give you 20 fantasy points which is a huge score for the price. The problem is you might get seven points. I am going to run him in a stars and scrubs GPP tonight.

Well that is all for tonight. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73