NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 30, 2015

Have you ever had a really vivid dream? I had a dream that on Christmas while sitting down having my Christmas dinner I was having a heart attack. I was shivering, my hands were numb, I had pain shooting up my left arm, and my chest hurt so bad I could only take the shortest of breaths.

Next thing I know I am in Berkshire Medical Center lying down on a bed with tubes hooked up to me everywhere while a nurse injects morphine into my system to send me off into a slumber. All that I can think about as I am going to sleep is that I do not have my phone charger and when I wake up I will not be able to check and see how I am doing in the Santa Slam on FanDuel while at the same time wondering who is going to be able to take over my article while I am down.

It turns out this was not a dream. I did not have a heart attack, but I have a whole slew of other problems now to deal with I never thought of. It is not pretty but after a major surgery I will be back to 100 percent. I am not writing this for anyone to feel bad. I do not want sympathy. I want you to notice how much DFS means to me. How much I love doing all this. If anything wondering how my Christmas day lineup was doing kept me sane at a time when I thought I had everything to lose. After this I defy anyone to tell me that DFS is just about the “money”.

Today is a nice slate with little in the way of superstars and great mid-priced players in awesome matchups. This is actually the perfect slate if you are new to DFS as far as lineup construction goes. It is one of those nights where you could easily win everything with a lineup containing no players over the cost of $8,000. So with all that said it is nice to be back in the office and get this article to you.

If you ever have any questions hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

Chris Paul, with Blake Griffin being out, gets a huge boost. He has scored more than 20 points in five of the last seven games he has played while putting up more than 40 fantasy ppg on a nightly basis. Although the Hornets are allowing a low 18.9 ppg and the fifth fewest fantasy ppg with Griffin out the usage rate has to increase. The game is slated to be close with the Clippers being 1.5-point favorites and it also has a decent 203 expected point total. If you choose to spend at the point guard position tonight then this is the guy.

Ish Smith has been on fire in the last two games since getting the starting role. I mean the guy scored over 40 fantasy points versus the Jazz on Monday night and tonight he gets to face the Kings who are allowing a whopping 22.6 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. For the price, Smith is a great cash game and GPP play in a game with 210 expected point total.

Marcus Smart is starting to get some minutes but I cannot imagine on what planet Isaiah Thomas doesn’t continue to see most of the work. Here is the risk: if you are going to give Smart some minutes, there is no one better to let him play with than the lowly Lakers who are allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to point guards. You also need to take note of the blowout risk with the Celtics being 12.5-point favorites. Nonetheless, Thomas averages over 30 fantasy ppg and as long as he plays the minutes he should have no problem getting there. I just think a better play for GPP than cash.

Is anyone sick of playing the "Is Damian Lillard or Deron Williams going to play tonight game?" I mean really guys, enough is enough already. So here we go. J.J. Barea proved the other night he is one of those matchup-dependent players. To be honest he was on the bench for a reason right? Now you see why. In the right matchup he has already shown he can put up numbers. He put over 46 fantasy points versus Brooklyn and over 34 fantasy points versus Chicago prior to hitting the Milwaukee wall. Tonight he faces a Warriors team with Stephen Curry in serious doubt, who are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards. For his low price I will ride the Barea train tonight if he plays in cash and GPP.

I plan on having some heavy exposure tonight to the Philadelphia-Sacramento game. This is where I dust off the ring and entice "Golem," or Rajon Rondo, to come out of his cave. I had him in the timeout room for being a bad Golem and killing me with his foul troubles in his last game. The fact remains this game is going to be a high-scoring affair with Philadelphia allowing a ton of fantasy ppg to everyone. Rondo has the upside to get you to the 40 fantasy point mark and I see no reason as long as he behaves he will not tonight. It will be either him or Paul I spend up on.

Shooting Guard

If Stephen Curry does not play tonight then the top play at the shooting guard position is Klay Thompson. I do not know if you have been watching, but Thompson has been on fire lately. Over his last nine games he is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg. If you take that comparison versus his price at $7,200 on FanDuel he is quite a value. He also has scored over 50 fantasy points twice in the span which tells us he has huge upside. If no Curry, he is the top play, if Curry plays he drops to the bottom of my list of the mentioned players in this article due to Dallas allowing a low 19.7 ppg and the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Why go up against a tough defense when you have other options?

My absolute favorite play tonight in cash games is Evan Fournier. He has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in five straight hitting the 30 mark twice. Tonight he faces a Brooklyn team allowing the most points in the NBA to shooting guards at 24.4 and the 25^th most fantasy ppg. For his price I cannot imagine why you would not take him. Elfrid Payton is GTD and if he sits Fournier gets even a bigger boost.

The Wizards are a mess right now. Who better to take advantage of this mess than DeMar DeRozan? The Wizards are allowing 22.4 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. DeRozan has that nice 40 fantasy point upside something he has done three times in the last six games. If I do not use Thompson tonight with Fournier it will be DeRozan.

J.J. Redick was a big letdown in a great matchup versus Washington on Monday night. I had him in every lineup. Prior to this he scored over 20 fantasy ppg in four straight hitting the 30 mark once. With Griffin out you would expect to see his usage rate along with Paul’s go up. Well, tonight he gets another shot facing a Charlotte team allowing a whopping 23.4 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Get ready for the Chronicles of Redick.

It should come of little surprise that facing the Lakers that most of the Celtics are in play tonight. Why should Avery Bradley be any different? Bradley has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of the last four games hitting the 30 mark once. The Lakers are allowing 23.3 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and I expect him to punish them all night.

Small Forward

OK I am going to make your first pick at the small forward position easy today on FanDuel. Omri Casspi continues to produce while his price remains low. In the last three games he has scored 29.2, 32.5, and 40.7 fantasy ppg on FanDuel. His price is only $5,600 facing a Sixers team allowing the most ppg at 24 to power forwards (FanDuel has him at SF) and the second most fantasy ppg. On occasion he gives you that 17 fantasy point night but I cannot see that happening tonight in this game.

If you really want to get crazy you can even insert the actual small forward Rudy Gay into your lineup as well. Gay has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in six of the last 10 games hitting the 40 fantasy point mark once as well. He gives you double-double potential facing a Philadelphia team allowing 20.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards. He will have you so happy you will be singing in the rain. Which would be very Rudy.

Nicolas Batum (GTD – Toe) is averaging over 32 fantasy ppg. He has also put up more than 30 fantasy points in three straight games going over the 40 mark versus Memphis the day after Christmas. It is unclear if he is going to play but he has a great matchup facing a Clippers team allowing 22 ppg to shooting guards where he is playing right now.

Robert Covington I find very unpredictable and so do the numbers. One night he comes out and he is a semi-stud and then crickets. A complete lineup kill. If you are going to use him and try to take advantage of the nights where he goes off then tonight is that night. Covington has that 30 fantasy point ceiling at the 25 fantasy ppg price. Tonight he is facing a Kings team that is allowing the 21 ppg (second in the NBA) and the 25^th most fantasy ppg. I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair with most of the players being viable options tonight. Why not Covington? GPP only.

My model scored Andrew Wiggins higher than most tonight. He is playing at SG but FanDuel has him at SF which is to our benefit as more points are allowed to shooting guards than small forwards on average. It may seem crazy to take any player going up against a Utah team allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the SG position but when you factor in the 21.5 ppg allowed it gives him a boost. I will have some exposure to Wiggins tonight in some form as I suspect he will be low owned.

I also like Kawhi Leonard tonight and plan on pairing him with Casspi in my cash games. He has the highest ceiling of the above players and tonight is facing a Phoenix team in disarray that is allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. His price is high and so is his production. Just keep in mind San Antonio is 14.5 point-favorites so he could sit on the bench the whole fourth quarter.

Power Forward

In the last five games Nerlens Noel has scored more than 33 fantasy points three times. Tonight he gets the Kings who are allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg in what should as previously mentioned be a high-scoring affair. He scored higher than any other power forward in my model tonight and if Okafor sits tonight then Noel becomes a must play. Fire up the Carols because the holidays are not over.

Draymond Green (GTD – Ankle) is the other guy I really like on the Golden State side tonight facing the Mavericks. This game has the highest expected point total of the evening and Dallas is allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. He has had three double-doubles and a triple-double in the last seven games while scoring over 50 fantasy points twice and over 60 once. If he plays I am all in.

You know how I love the late bullet. I search for it. I just found C.J. McCollum’s price a bit high with all the options at the SG position tonight which led me to the Denver side and Kenneth Faried. The Trail Blazers are allowing over 20 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Faried has scored over 30 fantasy points twice and 40 once in the last six games. Denver is slated to play from behind but the line is not terrible with Portland being seven-point favorites. It will be him or Noel. I am on the ropes. If Green sits, problem solved.

Luis Scola is one of those players that always gets me. I mean, the last time I played him he gave me seven fantasy points. Seven. Since then he has put up 25 fantasy ppg in three straight going over the 35 mark once. His price is low and he is facing a Wizards team allowing 20.5 ppg to power forwards which is not low by NBA standards. With my recency bias towards him I have a hard time giving him the ok for cash games but he appears to be on track.

My man Jared Sullinger could not be in a better position to have a huge bounce back game than tonight. The Lakers suck. Yes, I said that. They are allowing 21.8 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers. The problem is Kelly Olynyk is getting better and better so Sully is finding himself in a bit of a time share. If he is going to have one of those 30 fantasy point nights tonight is certainly a viable one to take a stab at. He has done it twice in the last five games he played.

Center

In five of the last six games Nikola Vucevic has scored over 40 fantasy points. Tonight he is facing a Brooklyn team allowing 22 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to centers. His price is high but with Boogie always being a risk Vucevic has the most upside on the slate. He is sitting in my cash game lineup right now and it will take a lot to remove him.

Kelly Olynyk reminds me of a giant Ninja Turtle in a bad 1980’s basketball movie. Well, he has been coming out of his shell as of late scoring more than 20 fantasy ppg in three of four going over 30 once. His price is low and he is averaging over 25 minutes per game over the last four. When I build my GPP lineup later Olynyk will be included for tonight.

I like both Ian Mahinmi and Mason Plumlee the same tonight even though Mahinmi actually three points higher in my model.

Mahinmi gets the Bulls who are allowing 20.7 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to centers. He is scoring easily over 20 fantasy ppg on most nights and in the better matchups like this he tends to get closer to 30. I am not sure I am using him but the numbers do not lie.

Plumlee has a great matchup and becomes another possible late bullet if you want one. The Nuggets are allowing 20.2 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to centers. He has scored over 30 fantasy points twice in the last four games and I can see it happening again tonight. Depending on Greens status at the PF position tonight I may move off of Vucevic for Plumlee. But unlikely.

If you really want to take a huge risk than Joffrey Lauvergne can save you a ton. His price is the near minimum and tonight he is facing a Denver team allowing 22.5 ppg (the highest in the NBA) and the 26^th most fantasy ppg as well. He has scored over 24 fantasy points in two straight games and has a chance again tonight.