NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 22, 2015

So I was down yesterday with the flu. I can only assume I caught the same illness going around the NBA right now. More than likely as a direct result of playing DFS on daily basis. And they say that DFS is not contagious? So wrong.

So Christmas is this week. I will be running a FREE league on FanDuel on Christmas Day. It is going to be called the FantasyAlarm Christmas League. It will be a 20-man league with myself included. So the first 19 people to enter are in. The top three winners that are not me will win a FantasyAlarm T-shirt. So you have nothing to lose. I will be posting it around one hour before game time on the NBA Playbook Pro page, the Position Coach page, and the Optimal Lineups page. So good luck and keep an eye out.

Tonight is one of those slates that is really weird. We have tons of value plays all over the board on a night where we do not need them. No matter what combo you choose on this slate you can pretty much get whoever you want. So keep in mind that even though Jameer Nelson has a good matchup and is cheap will he still score more fantasy points than Kyle Lowry in a bad matchup? But take heart that his matchup is actually pretty good. I have been tinkering for about an hour now and I keep ending up with money left over in every lineup. So choose wisely.

If you ever have any questions hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry tonight is the best matchup in a bad game. The Raptors are hosting the Mavericks in what is slated to be a close one with Toronto being four-point favorites. The expected point total is not great (196), but neither are the other games. Lowry is averaging over 38 fantasy ppg and tonight faces a Dallas defense allowing 22.2 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to point guards. On a small slate I do not see any point guard scoring more fantasy points tonight than Lowry making him a MUST play.

At the moment, the next guy I plan on using tonight with Lowry is Reggie Jackson. No, the loveable chubby fellow with the incredible candy bar did not come out of retirement at his age and start a basketball career. This is a different one on the Pistons. Jackson tonight has a terrible matchup. The Heat are allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. So why take him? The reason is simple. He is the second-best PG on the board and has maybe the highest ceiling. Although we have value plays in great matchups even on their best nights hitting 30 fantasy points has been impossible or extremely limited. We know someone has to score.

The only favorable matchup the Pistons have in this game is at SF where Miami is allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg. I for one can tell you that Marcus Morris is dead to me. So he is a wash. Someone has to score and Jackson his hit the 50 fantasy point mark twice in the last three games. If I decide not to use him then I will plug in the next guy.

If you insist on saving at the PG position, even though I cannot imagine why you would, then of course the best value play is Jameer Nelson. The Lakers suck. I know it, you know it, and even the Lakers know it. Kobe Bryant would rather just watch at this point than handle the embarrassment on a nightly basis.  The Lakers are allowing a whopping 23.2 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to point guards. Nelson has hit the 30 fantasy point mark twice in the last six games while scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in the other four. He is safe, he should hit 30 tonight. I just do not know if that is enough.

Jordan Clarkson is the next-best value outside of Nelson. The thing is, even though Clarkson may give you a nice 25 fantasy points tonight that is about the most you can expect. He has not hit the 30 mark once in the last 10 games and I see nothing to suggest he will tonight by his record. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it is a duck. His matchup is enticing, however, with Denver allowing 23.2 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards. I am no fortune teller I just call it like I see it.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position tonight is thin. Thin enough to where it could accept food donations.

Lou Williams is my favorite play of the night at SG. He is easily scoring in the double-digits nightly and getting plenty of minutes with the Lakers having a limited selection of scorers. The Nuggets are allowing 21.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Williams is averaging over 28 fantasy ppg in the last six and should see all of that tonight.

Will Barton makes another fine play tonight with the Lakers allowing 23.3 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Barton has been on fire having scored over 40 and 50 fantasy points once in the last four games. He has huge upside in a game where Denver is only five-point favorites against a horrible Lakers team. This is like the Bad News Bears of basketball playing the Bad News Bears of basketball and with this game being the only game with an expected point total over 200 (203) you can expect heavy action tonight in it. Maybe even too much.

With little to pick from DeMar DeRozan has to be given some consideration. Once again we have a bad matchup on a slate full of them with Dallas allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards. DeRozan has scored easily over 30 fantasy ppg now in seven straight games hitting the 40 mark twice. This may be all you need to push you over the top tonight.

Small Forward

This position today is more boring than waiting in the Doctor’s office with nothing to read but all the health magazines on the coffee table in the waiting room. We have little to choose from as far as any fantasy expectations are concerned.

Matt Barnes is the must play and more than likely will be nearly 100 percent owned in cash games and for good reason. First off, his price is insanely low compared to recent production at $4,900 on FanDuel. In four of the last five games played, Barnes has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg. Tonight he is facing a Sixers team allowing 20.6 ppg and the 29^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. I am all in on him tonight guys.

Now here is something I call a little good fortune…maybe. Jeff Green is playing at PF even though FanDuel has him at SF, making tonight’s decision easy for me. The Sixers are allowing 24.6 ppg which is the highest in the NBA and the 29^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards as well. Green is the typical matchup-dependent play on a slate with a limited selection where he does provide the same value or more compared to most of his more expensive counterparts for much cheaper. In the last five games he has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg three times hitting 30 once, which I believe he will again tonight.

Danilo Gallinari actually scores higher in my model than Matt Barnes but is battling an ankle injury. He should play tonight as he practiced on Monday. But he is a GTD. Of the three Gallinari has the highest ceiling and should feast tonight facing a Lakers team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to small forwards and pretty much let everyone score. Just ask the guy selling hot dogs. I believe he has even hit a three versus the defensively incapable Lakers.

Power Forward

I see no need to chase value at the PF position tonight and I would not go lower than the three players below.

Kenneth Faried is the obvious choice that jumps out at you and for good reason. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of the last five and tonight faces the Los Angeles Losers...I mean...Lakers, who are allowing 20.4 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I have him locked and loaded in all my lineups.

Dirk Nowitzki is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and only once in the last ten games has he scored less than 25 fantasy ppg hitting the 30 mark four times and the 40 mark once. Although the Raptors are allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards they are allowing 21.6 ppg to them which makes Nowitzki a fine play on a small slate.

Chris Bosh has a great matchup tonight with Detroit allowing 20.1 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. With Bosh being the only favorable matchup defensively for Miami I expect him to get plenty of chances tonight. You could go cheaper even than these three but I see no reason to and I will not be, so I certainly will not recommend anyone else does. It is going to be a close grind tonight.

Center

Three guys. I am going to give three centers and as with some of the other positions after researching and common sense I see no need to look elsewhere.

Andre Drummond is the top option on the slate, bad matchup or not. I do not care if the Heat are allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to centers. I do not care they are only allowing a measly 18.6 ppg to centers. What I do care about is that these stats were not compiled playing Drummond every day. He scored 18 points and 20 rebounds versus Miami on 11-25-15 and I think he went easy on them. If you can afford him…play him.

Next up is Marc Gasol. He has two double-doubles in the last four games and tonight faces a Philly team allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers. In his last game he scored nearly 50 fantasy points versus an Indiana team that defends well. Can you imagine what he is going to do tonight versus the Sixers? They do not want to know.

If you want to save tonight and spend up elsewhere than Joffrey Lauvergne could not get a better matchup than the lowly Lakers. They are allowing a whopping 22.2 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to centers. He has scored over 25 fantasy ppg twice in the last four and for $3,900 on FanDuel he pretty much allows you to choose whoever you want above.

Well that is it for tonight guys. I wish I could have given you more plays but I am not going to force feed them to you. These are what they are, the plays I like. Good luck and I will be back tomorrow.

One more thing, remember to not overthink things tonight. On these small slates you do not look for who to play…you look for who to avoid.

As always if you need me send me message on Twitter @geraldcolvin73.