NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 14, 2015

I cannot believe it is only 11 days until Christmas. Which leaves me with a tough decision to make. In the last week or so I have been fairly hot and have grown my bankroll to quite an extensive amount. Not filthy rich but enough to do my Christmas shopping. The problem lies in this, I like my bankroll. I like logging onto FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo and rejoicing in my victories. When you withdraw it you are down to little again and it makes you feel like you are under the eight ball all the time until you have grown that safety blanket again. So in the end I have decided to wait just a few more days to make the withdrawal just in case I go on a losing streak. Which happens to the best of us.

We have a nice slate tonight with a whole lot of value on it which usually leads to a fairly high score to cash out. Like I have said in previous articles on these bigger slates I play less. I prefer the four- to six-game slates. I find the less variance the easier it is to cash in 50/50s. Of course another expert will say the opposite. It’s all in our approach.

I completely faded the Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs game tonight. When setting up my model it was a bevy of ice cold blue marker. You have the two teams allowing the fewest fantasy ppg in the NBA playing each other in a game with the lowest expected point total of 187 with a huge point spread with the Spurs being 12.5-point favorites. I see negative, hell no, f**k that, absolutely not, and I will pass written all over this game. I am not saying a player or two is not lineup worthy, I am saying why bother with great options everywhere else?

Let’s cash some lineups together tonight.

Point Guard

I realize it is early but I can tell you without a doubt I am using Damian Lillard in my lineups tonight. Not only has he scored more than 20 points in three out of the last four games he also has scored more than 40 fantasy points in four of the last seven games with the other three games in the 30 fantasy point tier. He gets the fantasy goldmine New Orleans Pelicans who are allowing the most points in the NBA at 25.2 and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards. It is slated to be a close game with Portland being three-point favorites with a high 208.5 expected point total. This matchup has "winner" written all over it and you get a late bullet as well.

If you pass on Lillard then take a look at my man Reggie Jackson. I am not talking about the loveable baseball player with the delectable candy bar named after him who played for the Angels in the twilight of his career. I am talking about the point guard for the Detroit Pistons. For some reason his price does not go up. He is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg and tonight is facing a Clippers team allowing 21.8 ppg to point guards in what should be a close game (-1 LAC). For a guy who has scored 30 fantasy ppg or more in three straight his price is fair.

The Brooklyn Nets allow a ton fantasy points. The 24^th most to be exact. Tonight they are 2.5-point underdogs playing the Orlando Magic. The Nets are also allowing 22.1 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards opening the door for Elfrid Payton. In six out of the last seven games Payton has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg hitting the 40 mark once. He scores in the double digits most nights and had a double-double versus the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night.

The Grizzlies looked good last night. Really good. One guy who I expect to have his way with them tonight is John Wall. He has four double-doubles in the last five games and tonight gets a Memphis team allowing an incredible 24.9 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. In the last eight games Wall has scored 50 fantasy ppg or more five times. I know Grizzlies are tough but not tough enough to take down this Wall.

Here is some of that value tonight. Jameer Nelson scored 20 points versus the Timberwolves on Friday night scoring over 37 fantasy points. He is slated to start tonight facing a Houston team that usually helps rocket you up the cash line. Houston is allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg and 21.1 ppg to point guards on the season. This game has a high 208.5 expected point total and Nelson should see the minutes to exceed value for peanuts across the industry.

If you want other cheap options we usually have good old Patrick Beverley to fall back on when he is in a good matchup like tonight. The Nuggets are allowing a very high 23.7 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Beverley has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in six of the last nine. Typical stats for matchup dependent players like Beverley. For the price you should get an easy 20 tonight.

Shooting Guard

Ok, this one is easy tonight. Insert James Harden and start building the rest of your lineup. Sound familiar? It should because it is what I wrote on Saturday. The same goes for tonight. He is the biggest superstar on the board tonight, in my opinion, and one you should invest in. He is averaging over 47 fantasy ppg and should feast tonight facing a Denver team allowing the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Get Fozzy the Beard or get left behind.

I hate taking Wesley Matthews. He is the shooting guard version of Ersan Ilyasova as far as my recency bias goes. How about this one? The amazing thing is I wrote this Saturday as well and the same holds true tonight. He continues to light up the fantasy scoreboard on a nightly basis having scored 53, 26, 29, and 31 fantasy ppg on FanDuel in the last four. The Suns are allowing a high 23.3 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. This game has a high 209 expected point total and he will by my way of gaining some exposure to it.

The SG with the second highest ceiling in my opinion is actually a PG. Eric Bledsoe, even though I will always remember him as the guy who ruined my Patriots game experience by deciding to sit one out and give me a big fat zero, is a fantasy cash register at this position. He has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in three straight even hitting the 50 mark versus the Timberwolves on Sunday. His price is high but if you fade Harden you could get that 50 with Dallas allowing 22.1 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards.

The Brooklyn Nets are allowing the most points in the NBA to shooting guards at 24.1 and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to go with it. Victor Oladipo even though coming off the bench is playing major minutes. Prior to his last performance he scored more than 25 fantasy ppg eight straight games hitting the 30 mark three times and 40 mark twice. His price is low for these numbers and he has more than a favorable matchup.

You want a super cheap boom or bust play tonight. How about Courtney Lee? The Wizards are allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to shooting guards. Lee plays major minutes on a nightly basis and has shown that 30 fantasy ppg upside in the past. If you can think of a better matchup than this to take a shot then by all means take it.

Small Forward

Paul George is back at PF but still listed at SF, making him the SF with the highest ceiling and price on the slate. Recency bias will have a lot of people off of him for the price tonight and he makes a great GPP play. He is averaging over 27 ppg and tonight faces a Toronto team that allows 21.5 ppg to the power forward position. I cannot say for sure if I will have exposure to him myself with all the value at this position tonight but he does deserve serious consideration.

The guy who ranks highest in my model tonight at the SF position and with good merit is Danilo Gallinari. I have much love for the Italian Stallion and I am sure lots of it has to do with Italian Pride. I am half Italian, half Irish after all. Is it still politically correct to be proud to be Italian? I should check. Anyway, back to basketball.

Gallinari scores in the double-digits nightly and tonight gets a Rockets team allowing 21.0 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in three of four, hitting 39.4 on FanDuel on Friday night versus the Timberwolves playing 42 minutes. The price is right on this Italian icon and I will be using him myself in cash games tonight.

Depending on the status tonight of Tony Allen, which at this time he is still a GTD, I plan on using either Jeff Green or Matt Barnes tonight. They are both only $4,100 on FanDuel tonight and both put up monster games last night versus the Heat where Green scored 26 points and Barnes had a double-double scoring 37.6 fantasy points. They both score the same in my model but I am leaning toward Barnes who, in my opinion, has the higher upside.

In the hunt for late bullets so you feel better during the last game could trap you a Gary Gnu. Or, at the least for the low price of $5,300 on FanDuel an Al-Farouq Aminu.  With the Pelicans allowing a ton of fantasy points to even the guy selling popcorn, most of the Trail Blazers with any kind of scoring ability come into play tonight. Aminu gives you that 30 fantasy point upside in the right matchup for that 25 fantasy point upside price.

Power Forward

Draymond Green was fantasy gold last night and I see that…oh, this was also Saturday. He also is not playing tonight.

Blake Griffin is not only one of the most exciting players in the NBA to watch, but he is also consistent with his fantasy numbers. In his last two games he failed to meet fantasy expectations which could make his ownership low tonight with some of the other big guns on the slate. He has four double-doubles in the last five games and tonight faces a Pistons team allowing 21 ppg and the 21^st highest amount of fantasy ppg to power forwards.

Kenneth Faried looks pretty good for the price. He has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in three straight and tonight faces a Houston team allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to the power forward position. I see him scoring over 30 fantasy points tonight and I plan on having some exposure to him in one or more of my lineups.

Yes, I did not forget about Anthony Davis. The thing is, I really hate taking him. He will go five games where he scores 50 fantasy ppg or more so you start to get comfy with him and then…BANG! He’s dead, leaving you under 35 fantasy ppg two in a row for a huge price. He does, however, make a great late bullet tonight facing a Portland team allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the PF position. The question is, can I stomach the risk in cash games for the price?

I really love a few guys in the Phoenix-Dallas game tonight. One guy who I plan on using for sure is Jon Leuer. The Mavs are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Leuer has scored 25 fantasy ppg or close to it in four straight. With this game having the highest expected point total of the evening at 209 a few guys in this game cannot hurt.

Here is one to take at your own risk tonight. I can almost bet the house he will be very low owned. Taj Gibson scored the second highest at the PF position in my model for tonight. He is also like Kristaps Porzingis where if you look at his fantasy production he is great every other game. To prove my point, his fantasy numbers are as follows over the last six games: 22.2, 17.3, 27.1, 17.9, 24.6, and 12.2. By this theory he should net you over 20 fantasy points tonight for peanuts.

Center

Dwight Howard tonight scores the highest in my model for centers. He has a number of things going for him. I swear tonight is like a massive case of de-ja vu. This was also from Saturday. It is also true again tonight. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 21.4 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to centers and Howard had a nice bounce back performance in his last game scoring nearly 40 fantasy points. If you can afford him, play him.

The other big gun is Andre Drummond. I am not going to get crazy here describing how awesome Drummond is. He has the highest ceiling at the position tonight and the Clippers are allowing 20.7 ppg and more than their fair share of fantasy points to centers.

The guy I really like tonight and will be using in my cash games is Mason Plumlee. I will only use him in a great matchup like tonight. The Pelicans are allowing 21.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to centers opening the door for Plumlee to have that 25 fantasy point night for cheap.

Two other great cheap plays tonight are Nikola Jokic coming off of a 32 fantasy point performance versus the Timberwolves facing a Houston team that allows a ton of fantasy points to everyone and Alex Len who faces a Dallas team that is tough defensively but regardless someone has to score in this slated high-scoring affair.

Well that is all for tonight. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.

I will be posting another FantasyAlarm DFS Playbook PRO league tonight sometime around 4:30 pm EST.