NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 7, 2015

I have a friends and family NFL league on Yahoo that I run. This season I had an opening so I let a guy in who I have been in a few leagues with and he seemed ok. I have to tell you, it has been a nightmare. The guy has done nothing but tell everyone what a fantasy guru he is and how bad of fantasy players we are. Even though he is out of it. He talks about how this little $100 league is nothing to him and how he runs “high stakes” leagues and he would show us if we played in them with him. The problem is, and this is just me being me, I hate that kind of stuff. It does not impress me. I believe when you are in a league, especially a “friends and family” league, you conduct yourself like a gentleman. You do not tell people how poor they are, how stupid they are, how bad of a league it is, and the guy just says nasty, nasty, nasty things, which you do not say to people. Just remember, fantasy sports is a gentlemen’s game. If you are a creep then find somewhere else to play.

Well I have not knocked it out of the park in the last few days I have managed to easily cash all my 50/50’s on FanDuel while getting crushed on DraftKings. Yahoo has been fairly kind while Aces has chewed me up and spit me out. Tonight is a big slate so remember the level of variance is higher also making the scores to cash rise slightly. Most experts play light on four-game slates like last night, but I prefer them and play my heaviest. I find more often than not on small slates guys try so hard to get someone low owned to separate themselves they forget the bread and butter. I mean Russell Westbrook on a four-game slate was only 30 percent owned in some tournaments I was in. That I find crazy. So remember, you cannot eat your pudding if you do not eat your meat.

Point Guard

Funny how my eyes always seem to spot the Lakers whenever I go over a schedule. The second I spotted the matchup I knew the one guy I was going to run in all my lineups tonight was Kyle Lowry. He has scored 154.8 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last three games. He is averaging over 22 ppg and 40 fantasy ppg on the season and should feast tonight facing a Lakers team allowing 24.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to point guards. The game does have a -13.5 TOR line so we do have blowout risk, a risk I am willing to take.

The other guy who will find himself sitting next to Lowry in my lineup is none other than my brother from another mother Isaiah Thomas. I may be reaching a bit as we have never met. He will, however, meet the Pelicans tonight who are allowing 25.1 ppg and the 29^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. He is red hot right now having scored more than 20 points in four out of the last five games while averaging more than 30 fantasy ppg in six straight with three going over the 40-point mark. All aboard the Thomas train!

The Chicago Bulls are six-point favorites in a game with an expected point total of 203 tonight. This is the second highest on the slate. Derrick Rose has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in five straight scoring over 30 on Saturday versus the Hornets. Rose is averaging over 13 points and six assists per game and is facing a Phoenix team allowing 24.7 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. He is a great mid-priced option if you find the top two not to your liking.

Jordan Clarkson is playing in the SG slot but as usual FanDuel has him in the PG slot. Most nights this bothers me as I often find I would rather have exposure to him in that position which always has less options. Tonight, however, I like him right where he is. His price is only $6,000 on FanDuel and tonight he is facing a tough Toronto team that is allowing 21 ppg to the SG position on the season. Clarkson has had two back-to-back games where he has failed to score 20 fantasy points and he should turn that around tonight on a Lakers team where someone has to score.

If you want to go bargain basement then Raymond Felton should be starting for Dallas tonight playing at SG. This is a huge advantage as the Knicks are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg and a whopping 22.4 ppg to shooting guards. His price is only $3,900 on FanDuel where he has scored a combined 53.1 fantasy points in the last two games.

Shooting Guard

With the Boston Celtics-New Orleans Pelicans having a close -1 NO line with the highest expected point total on the evening at 214 you can well imagine many players will float to the top in this game in my model. The guy who actually ranks highest at the SG position is Avery Bradley. The Pelicans are allowing 21 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and Bradley has become a key shooter in the Celtics offense. He scores easily in the double-digits and has scored more than 20 points in two of the last three games. I will not stack Celtics tonight but I will have either him or another Celtic to be named later in my lineup alongside Thomas.

The Washington Wizards are allowing the 21^st most fantasy points overall in the NBA this season. Surprisingly, though, in three of the five positions they are in the top 15 for fewest fantasy points allowed. That is this way because they give up a ton of fantasy points to the SG and SF position. So why not take advantage with one of the best shooting guards in the league Dwyane Wade? Wade is averaging over 18 points, four assists, and three rebounds per game this season. This is the average, his price is only $7,200 on FanDuel where he has scored 115.6 fantasy points in the last three games combined and should continue to dine fine tonight.

The thing I like about the Chicago Bulls is most nights you really only have three guys to choose from for offense that are fantasy viable. Jimmy Butler is certainly one of those three. Butler is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg and in eight out of the last nine games has scored more than 30 with a 40- and 50-point performance thrown in. His price is high but you usually get what you pay for out of Butler and should easily tonight facing a Phoenix team allowing 22.7 ppg to shooting guards.

O.J. Mayo is the starting PG for Milwaukee tonight facing a Portland team allowing 22 ppg to point guards for the low price of $4,100 FanDuel. He has scored over 25 fantasy point in two straight games starting and for the price I see little choice but to go back to that well again tonight. Depending on what big guys you want to fit in.

Eric Gordon is one of the most frustrating players to try and nail down a good performance out of. Simply because they are few and far between. He does have upside and is one of those guys you take a flyer on in the right matchup. He has scored more than 30 fantasy points three times in the last 10 games with three 20-point performances thrown in with four stinkers. The Celtics are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg and 22.2 ppg to shooting guards on the season and Gordon is in a great spot to get 30 again tonight for cheap.

Small Forward

The Spurs are heavy favorites tonight versus the Sixers. They are 12.5 point favorites to be exact. This game also has the lowest expected point total of the evening at 189.5. One thing it does have, however, is the player with the highest upside at the SF position tonight in Kawhi Leonard. The Sixers are allowing 21.7 ppg and the 29^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. They also are allowing the 25^th most fantasy points overall on the season. All this spells a huge night for Leonard, who in the last 10 games has scored more than 50 fantasy points twice with three hitting 40 and four out of the remaining five hitting at least 30. If you are willing to spend you could dominate the points at the SF position with this play. I am torn between him and another player to be named. But he is a great play in any format.

Al-Farouq Aminu who reminds me of a childhood show about a gnu named Gary was starting to worry me. He had several off games where he scored less than 20 fantasy points and some of it was inflicted on my bankroll. In the last two he has combined to score more than 50 fantasy points and faces the Bucks who are allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. For the low price of $5,400 you have a chance at 25 fantasy points with a low 30-point upside.

Khris Middleton actually scores exactly the same in my model tonight as Aminu and is basically the same player fantasy production wise. They both are inconsistent and are matchup dependent plays. Good defenses have the skill to shut them down, bad defenses don’t. The Trailblazers are allowing 23.1 ppg to small forwards and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg as well. I will use either him or Aminu in cash games or maybe both depending on what pops later for value.

Did you think the Lakers would escape another position? Of course not. This is one of those situations where I really do not like DeMarre Carroll but he has played so bad as of late it feels like this is the game for him to get back on track with. He has the ability to give you 34 fantasy points when he is on but 15 when he is off. If he cannot get on track tonight versus the Lakers he just should hang it up. GPP play only.

Want to go cheap and take a flyer. This is one of those plays that scares me but it actually scored the highest today in my model. Here is the thing, on Saturday night my model ranked Ben McLemore the highest overall and he scored 19 points with 9 rebounds for peanuts. I was too afraid to play him and passed. I will, however, listen tonight and in GPP use Justise Winslow. He should get plenty of minutes tonight if Luol Deng is out. Which at this time it appears he will be.  Winslow has shown 20 fantasy point upside and is in a great spot if he plays at SF tonight with Washington allowing 24.6 ppg (the highest in the NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards this season. For $3,600 you have to ask yourself, how brave am I? You could get eight points as well.

Power Forward

This position is loaded tonight so trying to get to the top of it was like looking for your wife when she wanders off at Wal Mart.

The top dog on the slate tonight, with Chris Paul more than likely not playing, is Blake Griffin. Not only is Griffin a beast play every night with no Paul it bumps him up that much more. In the last six games Griffin has scored more than 40 fantasy points four times hitting the 50 mark twice. He gets a tough matchup with Minnesota allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to the PF position but this scares me less than having an extra slice of bacon on my cheeseburger. I am all in on Griffin coming off a 28-point, 13-rebound performance.

Yes, finally. My man Sully. Jared Sullinger is still in the PF slot on FanDuel even though he has been playing center for quite a few games. Sully has had two double-doubles in the last five games and is averaging more than 27 fantasy ppg. Tonight facing a Pelicans team that is allowing 21.8 ppg and the most fantasy points on the season to centers, I am torn between him and Bradley.

The problem with NBA is stacking. It is like the Sith in Star Wars. There can be only two.

You cannot ignore Anthony Davis on any night. When I look at this Pelicans lineup I see a bunch of crap. Sorry to sound so crude but outside of Davis this team is horrible. This makes Davis that much better if you ask me. If he can manage to play a whole game (he’s been alright lately) you can count on getting what you pay for. If it helps, the Celtics are allowing 22.3 ppg to the PF position on the season and Davis has scored more than 50 fantasy ppg four days with four consecutive double-doubles. Griffin or Davis, you have to have one or the other tonight.

Luis Scola tonight is facing none other than the Lakers. This is always a key recipe for bad players to have good nights. Scola has 20 fantasy point upside and had done so on more than one occasion. The Lakers are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and for $4,200 Scola is worth a flyer in GPP play.

Jon Leuer should start tonight for Phoenix with Markieff Morris more than likely in the doghouse still. He has scored more than 30 fantasy points in both of the last two where he has played more than 30 minutes putting up more than 40 once. The Bulls defend the PF position well allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg but for the low price of $4,000 on FanDuel he becomes almost a must start.

Center

Greg Monroe tonight is facing a Portland team that is allowing the most points to centers in the NBA at 22.4 and the second most fantasy ppg along with it. He is averaging over 33 fantasy ppg and has three double-doubles in the last five games. If you want to spend this is the guy in cash and GPP.

Next up is the man about town Karl. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging over 14 points, nine rebounds, and 30 fantasy ppg. With the Clippers-Timberwolves game the second highest expected point total of the night at 203 it is good to have some exposure to it. Towns is also coming off a masterful 27-point performance where he put up 12 rebounds and over 40 fantasy points. His price is fair and he is a solid play tonight.

Time to look at some more cheapies.

Bismack Biyombo is cheap. $3,700 cheap on FanDuel tonight. Why? Well, you do not get much out of him most nights. In three out of four of the nights he has managed to get 30 minutes he scored more than 20 fantasy ppg with one going over 30. The Lakers are allowing 21.2 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to centers. I cannot think of a better time to give him a shot than this.

Alex Len, with Tyson Chandler out, is producing fairly well for peanuts. In both games he played more than 30 minutes he scored more than 25 fantasy points and should tonight facing a Bulls team allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to centers. Him or Biyombo are great for stars and scrubs GPP plays.

Well that is all for tonight. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.