NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 3, 2015

I love food. I was driving home yesterday with a bag from Burger King and all that I could smell in my car was my bacon-double cheeseburger. I can only eat half of it but in the end it costs me less than $2 for lunch.

I always talk with my wife about how much I would love to write about food. The problem is I am a numbers guy. I apply DFS player strategies throughout my life. So in the end my food review would sound a lot like this.

If you are going to eat one cheeseburger today than it has to be a bacon-double cheeseburger. Not only is the bun light but the hamburger is packed with over 10 grams of protein which should provide a grown man with roughly 12 percent of his daily protein needs. I find the biggest upside in this selection is the warm delicious slightly crisp bacon accented with two pickles and just the right amount of ketchup and mustard. If you are looking for value today at lunchtime then for under $2 at Burger King I am all in on this American classic.

You see, DFS is in me. It is pretty much my identity as of late. Everybody in my home town now asks when I see them how my fantasy teams are doing first.

I love tonight’s slate. The biggest reason is my Celtics are the team that lights up my model today in doing my research. So tonight my wife Jennifer will just have to accept that with four Celtics in my cash game lineup we will be watching the game.

If you ever have any question hit me up on Twitter @geraldcolvin73. Just ask some of our other subscribers, I will help you. Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

The Celtics are two-point favorites tonight versus the Kings in a game with an expected point total of 215. This is the highest of the evening with the next highest coming in at 201.5. That, my friends, is a huge difference. So as you might guess the guy I am using tonight in my cash game lineup is my favorite PG Isaiah Thomas. The Kings are allowing 22.2 ppg to point guards and Thomas is averaging over 20 ppg and has scored over 30 fantasy points in four straight. I expect Thomas to have a huge night in this shootout.

Kyle Lowry scored 31 points, five rebounds, and five assists last night for what I would call a pretty good evening for fantasy owners. He was reportedly feeling under the weather but certainly showed up. Tonight he is facing a Nuggets team allowing 24.1 ppg to the PG position and the 28^th most fantasy ppg. He has eclipsed the 40 fantasy point mark now five times in the last 10 games and is a great play anywhere you can afford him. Just keep in mind he played last night and the Raptors are the largest favorite on the board at 10.5 which means he could play reduced minutes if not get the night off entirely. We will get back to that.

You didn’t think for a minute with all that juice available I wasn’t going to get "Golem," or Rajon Rondo, in the fray. Rondo is continuing to make everyone who had lost faith in his abilities pay. In fact just in the last five games he has three double-doubles and is coming off a 21-point performance versus the Mavericks on Monday night. He is averaging over 12 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds per game and all that keeps him from being the top dog on the slate is the Celtics allowing the fewest fantasy ppg to the PG position in the NBA. All that aside I find him pretty much unstoppable right now.

George Hill has many things going for him and in my research deserves the three spot today. He is playing in a game tonight with the second highest expected point total of the night at 201.5 and faces a Portland team allowing 22.2 ppg to point guards. Prior to the stinker he put up last night versus the Clippers he was on a scoring roll averaging more than 25 fantasy ppg over the previous three. For the low price I see serious 30 fantasy point upside, something he has not done since Nov. 9 versus Orlando when he put up over 40. He is the guy I am pairing tonight with Thomas in cash games.

Finally, Russell Westbrook gets mentioned. He is a viable option in any matchup. He is averaging more than 27 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds per game and has a way of dismantling whoever is defending him. With Miami allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the PG position and a low 17.5 ppg he is best left for GPP play at the price. You will get 47 to 50 fantasy points from him but you pay up for Westbrook hoping for that 60 mark which has a small shot if any tonight.

So with the Toronto game having blowout potential Cory Joseph becomes a great punt play. He has played more than 30 minutes in three straight games and has scored more than 20 fantasy points in all three. With the Nuggets allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg and 24.1 ppg to point guards he could feast for the low price of $4,400 on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

Avery Bradley has scored more than 30 fantasy points in three out of the last six games. Bradley is scoring in the double-digits nightly and should have no problem keeping that up tonight with the Kings allowing 24.2 ppg and the 29^th most fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. For the price I find him impossible to pass on. Yes, I am using him in cash games.

If you want to spend up tonight at the SG position then take a look at DeMar DeRozan. Not only is he averaging more than 30 fantasy ppg he is also averaging 21 ppg to go with it. In the last 10 games he has scored more than 40 fantasy points three times and facing a Nuggets team allowing the most fantasy points to shooting guards in the NBA I say tonight is No. 4. If you can afford him.

Monta Ellis had an off night Wednesday night scoring only 10 points with four rebounds and one assist to just get over the 20 fantasy point mark. Prior to last night he had scored more than 30 fantasy points in four out of the eight previous games. If you want to target players outside of the Boston-Sacramento game then the Pacers are a great place to look being two-point favorites in what is supposed to be a high-scoring affair. With the Nuggets allowing 23 ppg to shooting guards Ellis is a great place to look and makes a great cash and GPP play tonight.

Dwyane Wade certainly has to be considered on this slate. The Thunder are two-point favorites in a game with an expected total just over 200. In his last game versus the Celtics, Wade lit it up scoring 30 points with four rebounds, four assists, and five steals for a stellar fantasy performance. In fact, he has scored over 40 fantasy points twice in the last five games. With the Thunder allowing 21.3 ppg to the SG position Wade could have a great game but better reserved in GPP play.

The next guy actually ranks second in my model but I just cannot get myself to list him as two. Marco Belinelli is coming off of back-to-back stinkers scoring a total of 9.2 fantasy points over 37 minutes. That is the total for two games. Prior to this he was averaging well over 25 fantasy ppg over the previous five. His price is low due to this at $3,800 on FanDuel but he is risky. A better punt play.

Small Forward

The best guy to spend on at SF today is actually playing the PF position. Paul George has scored more than 40 fantasy points in four straight games with two of them hitting 50. In these four he scored more than 30 ppg with one double-double. With all the value across the board his price may be high but I am using George in all my cash game lineups tonight facing a Portland team allowing the 23^rd-most points to the PF position.

The other guy is Jae Crowder. He actually is the top player in my model today at the SF position. He has scored in the double-digits in four straight games while scoring 25 fantasy ppg. The Kings are allowing 20.9 ppg to the SF position and I expect Crowder to get me near 30 fantasy points for $5,000 on FanDuel tonight.

Kevin Durant has scored a 109.3 fantasy points on FanDuel over the last two games. This is one of those games that has reverse numbers at the SF position with the Heat allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the three but a low 18.1 ppg in real life. You just have to rely on what I am always saying. A superstar is a superstar because they get it done nightly despite the matchup. That certainly is Durant. If you like him he is a viable cash and GPP option tonight.

Rudy Gay is rumored to be the happiest guy on the court. Although I cannot back that fact up I can however tell you that the Celtics are allowing 20.3 ppg to small forwards and he has scored over 28 fantasy points in back-to-back games. I find his price high for the output but he could crack the 30 mark tonight but I expect high ownership with such a high expected point total. I would only use him in GPP lineups. I find more upside in the guys above.

The Utah-Orlando game is one of two games I am basically avoiding tonight for the most part with a 189.5 expected point total. One guy, however, who is in a great spot is Gordon Hayward. In four out of the last five games Hayward has scored more than 30 fantasy points passing the 40 mark once. He is averaging over 18 points and 28 fantasy ppg and should be low owned tonight. He could be used in cash or GPP depending on who you like better.

Omri Casspi if you are not happy with Gay is playing nearly 30 minutes per night right now and should see plenty of action tonight for the low price of $4,200 on FanDuel. You add in the small fact he is scoring more than 20 fantasy ppg and he sure seems like a real steal. Did I mention he has 30 fantasy point upside? Just ask the Bucks.

Power Forward

Did I mention how excited I am (or foolish) to have four Celtics in my lineup? Sully or Jared Sullinger is hands down my favorite player to watch in the NBA. Not only do I probably take him 80 percent of the time he plays but the Kings are also allowing the 25^th most fantasy points to centers (where Sully is playing tonight) on the season. Sully has been red hot averaging 33 fantasy ppg over the last four combined and should feast tonight in this shootout. I am all in like Flynn and I thank god Sully will smack down the Kings tonight.

Ok, so you hate the Celtics. You want other players to choose from right? Well, the guy I am pairing with Sullinger tonight in cash games is Chris Bosh. In the last six games he has three double-doubles and is averaging over 17 points and nine rebounds per game. The Thunder are allowing 23.3 ppg to the PF position and Bosh should get all of that plus some tonight.

I usually do not choose many players who play for the Jazz. I find that music not to my liking most nights. I do, however, like Derrick Favors. Not only is Favors averaging over 16 points and eight rebounds per game tonight he faces an Orlando team that has its issues defending the PF position allowing over 20 ppg. Favors is coming off a 23-point performance with 10 rebounds on Monday versus the Warriors (who always come out and play) where he put up over 40 fantasy points.

Looking to go cheap? Luis Scola is a great option tonight. The Nuggets are allowing 21.7 ppg to the PF position and for $4,300 on FanDuel Scola could get you 25 fantasy points tonight. If it helps he has scored 29 fantasy points on FanDuel twice in the last seven games. Keep in mind we have huge risk here as he may get you 25 points but he could get you 11. In a stars and scrubs GPP I will use him myself.

Center

We have great cheap options abroad in this position tonight to save on. With that said the top dog, without a doubt, if you can afford him is DeMarcus Cousins. I could get all crazy and tell you how awesome he is but if I need to tell you Cousins is a good play any night maybe you should Boogie to a different tune. Cousins is averaging over 46 fantasy ppg and should get all of that in this high-scoring shootout tonight. In a stars and scrubs GPP I will have him for sure.

The guy as of right now depending on what later value pops elsewhere (I cannot handle much more today at center) is Bismack Biyombo. Even though his name reminds me of a famous WWII German battleship the British sunk it is obvious he is settling into the starting role with Jonas Valaciunas out. He is averaging over 30 minutes most nights and scoring over 20 fantasy points for the low price of $3,900 on FanDuel. The Nuggets are allowing the second most fantasy points in the NBA versus the center position and I am counting on 25 from Biyombo tonight. He has hit 30 once.

Mason Plumlee continues to play solid basketball. He has had three double-doubles in the last five games while racking up the rebounds. He has scored more than 30 fantasy points in four out of his last seven games. In the last three he has had two duds and I expect him to have a great bounce back game tonight and provide that late bullet in you lineup.

Well that is it for tonight. Good luck.