NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: November 3, 2015

One of the things I most enjoy each day is getting up and watching ESPN while I sip away at my coffee and pour over statistics, matchups, point totals, and, well, pretty much everything else that is involved in the process. At times, especially when the family starts to awaken, things can get a bit crazy. For instance, yesterday I was writing the intro for the NBA Position Coach while a three-year-old kept grabbing my coffee and running off, a cat kept jumping on my lap purring for attention, a pre-teen was in full meltdown mode over some sneakers or something, and just to put the proverbial cherry on top, the six-year-old spilled a pound of sugar on the kitchen floor. You ever tried to clean up sugar with a cat, four kids, and an over affectionate wife chasing you around?

Compared to my home life, daily fantasy sports is easy. But honestly, I wouldn’t give either up for the life of me.

Tonight’s slate has some great matchups to exploit and the best part is the pricing tonight is soft. So let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

The Denver Nuggets have the highest expected team total on the day which instantly should set a red flag off for any DFS player. With the PG position today full of value I find the best play today in cash games is Emmanuel Mudiay. In the three games he has played this season he has put up double-digit points twice, including a 17-point performance against the Rockets last Wednesday. Tonight he faces one of the worst defenses in the NBA (29^th versus the PG) in the Los Angeles Lakers. Just keep in mind Mudiay is a little turnover prone.

One of the things I look at each day is pace of game. The faster the pace, the faster the scoring. The New Orleans Pelicans move at a high pace, 105.4 to be exact. The problem is their offensive efficiency is low at 96.3. This means we have either a lot of turnovers, missed shots, or both. With that being said, tonight I am all over Jrue Holiday, he gets to face the Orlando Magic tonight in a game with a close line (-3 NO) and is coming off a 22-point performance against the Golden State Warriors.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of those teams whom you kind of get what you pay for. They move slow but play well offensively. Mike Conley has been playing well despite the 50-point blowout loss to Golden State Monday night. He has been putting up double-digit points almost nightly and near double-digits in assists. He should have a great game tonight against a Kings team that struggles to defend the PG position.

Elfrid Payton tonight gets the New Orleans Pelicans who are dead last in defense against the PG position. You add in a guy like Payton, who has double-double potential on a nightly basis, and you usually end up on the right side of the fence. He should easily get you around 30 fantasy points tonight.

The Chicago Bulls tonight are three-point favorites versus the Charlotte Hornets. As we know close lines suggest more playing time for starters and less for bench players. Common sense. Kemba Walker is likely to be one of the starters who are in the fight for most of the game tonight. I say the Hornets get their first win tonight and Walker puts up 20 points, eight rebounds, and six assists.

Also on a side note: Jordan Clarkson is listed as a PG on FanDuel even though he is a SG and makes a fine play versus the Nuggets who fail horribly at defending the SG position.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard and center position are the two I am spending up on tonight in cash games and if I am going to spend up I want a guy like Victor Oladipo. He has been an absolute beast, putting up double-digit points in all three games this season (17, 21, and 13), including a triple-double on Friday against OKC. He should easily get a double-double tonight versus a Pelicans team that is 25^th defending the SG position.

The other SG worth spending on tonight is Jimmy Butler facing the Charlotte Hornets who are equally miserable at defending the SG position coming in at 26^th. Tonight’s game is expected to be close one and with Butler averaging nearly 20 points per game it is hard to ignore him in cash games.

Although the matchup is not as favorable as the top two DeMar DeRozan is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game and over 20 ppg in real life. Tonight he faces a Dallas team in what is expected to be close with an O/U over 200.

If you feel like being a cheap skate like I often am then take a look at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He is dirt cheap and averaging almost 15 ppg and gives you double-double potential for a low price.

If you still want to go cheaper then how about Courtney Lee. Lee is averaging a hair over 10 ppg but that number is slightly askew if you consider the 50-point blowout loss the other night that is factored in. Prior to that Lee put up 15 points to the Nets on Halloween. Trick or treat? Remains to be seen.

Small Forward

I find the small forward position full of value tonight and that makes the decisions tough. One guy that was easy to pick was Marcus Morris. For some reason his price has not adjusted yet to his production and he remains dirt cheap despite putting up 58 points and 23 rebounds over his last three games.

Rudy Gay, when I take him, usually finds a way to make me happy. The Grizzlies are ranked 25^th versus the SF position and Gay is averaging nearly 20 points and almost eight rebounds per game. He should have a monster game tonight and if you are going to pay up at this position he is the clear option.

Danilo Gallinari, 23, 10, and 15. That is how many points Gallinari has put up in his last three games. Tonight he is in a game with the highest expected point total of the night facing a Lakers team that has one hell of a time trying to stop small forwards. He is a great play in all formats.

Continuing on with value brings us to Luol Deng. I am not heavy on players in the Miami / Atlanta game but Deng jumps right out at me. He is in a great matchup facing the Hawks, who are ranked 23^rd versus the SF position. Just be advised he has had some hip issues which could limit minutes and he is no Russell Westbrook.

Here is a total boom or bust play. Let’s call it a hunch. Every night it seems there is that one guy. That one guy nobody is on who has the game of his life. Tonight P.J. Hairston faces the Chicago Bulls who are ranked 28^th versus the SF position. If he is ever going to have a big night, why not tonight? But, do so at your own risk. GPP play only.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis is the only real superstar on the board today. The problem is he is in a tough matchup. I am one of them guys who believes that even Nolan Ryan could have struck out most of the current Blue Jays roster despite the mighty bats. The same goes with offense versus defense. Although the Magic are ranked sixth versus the power forward position, most power forwards are not Anthony Davis. I am all in on him tonight in cash games. If he goes off and you do not have him, the point difference with all the value on the board today could sink you quicker than a giant ship hitting an iceberg.

Like I previously stated I am not big on either Atlanta Hawks or Miami Heat tonight. I just see many other better options except for the PF position. Paul Millsap averages nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Facing a Miami team that is ranked 25^th versus the PF position makes this gun hard to keep in the holster.

Marvin Williams is dirt cheap and averaging almost 13 points and nine rebounds per game. On FanDuel he is only $4,800 tonight which helps free up the extra cash to get Anthony Davis. I am using Williams in all my cash games.

I am that guy who likes to have at least a player or two in the late games. It just works that luck would have it tonight’s late game not only has the highest expected point total it is also expected to be close with Denver being the one-point favorite. Julius Randle is coming off a monster game, putting up 22 points and 15 rebounds versus the Spurs on Sunday night. Tonight facing a Denver team that is ranked 23^rd versus the PF position makes him more than a viable option in both cash games and GPP.

On the other side of the fence is Julius Randle's counterpart Kenneth Faried. Farried puts up near double-doubles on a nightly basis and faces a Lakers team that is probably better at knitting than defending the PF position. I expect Faried to have a big night tonight but he will be highly owned I suspect. I believe the options above can get you the same numbers or better with lower ownerships. Even Anthony Davis could be low owned with so many options on the slate doubtful, but you never know.

Center

I am not going to lie. It is not often that the center position is the one I build my lineup around but today I see no choice. All my selections today are ones that you have to spend up on which is highly unusual for this position. The guy you are going to want to pay for over anyone else today is Andre Drummond. He is averaging nearly 19 points and 17 rebounds per game and is absolutely on fire. I have him in all my cash games tonight and would not want to be the guy who fades him when he puts up 50 fantasy points facing a Pacers team that is ranked 26^th versus the center position.

If you are not the guy who wants to spend up on Drummond and save a few pennies then take a look at Nikola Vucevic. He is coming of a double-double versus the Bulls on Sunday night and is averaging 17 points per game. Tonight he gets a Pelicans team ranked 25^th versus the center position and should provide huge upside in a game with the second highest expected point total of the evening.

I am not a Gasol guy. Either of them. But tonight Marc Gasol is mighty hard to ignore. Over his last three games he has 40 points, 21 rebounds, and 12 assists. Tonight, they are facing the Kings who are dead last at defending against the center position. This means he should pad that total tonight and is a great option in all formats.

If you want to go bargain basement tonight then Zaza Pachulia is the man. He is averaging 10 points and 10 rebounds per game and is dirt cheap across the industry. Tonight he gets a great matchup facing a Raptors team that struggles to stop centers from scoring on them in what should be a close game with Dallas being the one-point underdogs.