NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 26, 2016

Tonight we have a nice eight-game slate. Or do we? You see, looking over this slate I absolutely hate it. It is way too easy with all the value on the board tonight to almost get everyone you want in your lineup. Just to get my point across I currently am tinkering with a FanDuel lineup that has Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Paul George, and DeMarcus Cousins in it. I find this scary because it literally took me five minutes to make it. This tells me tonight we could have scores nearing 400 points in the lower entry giant GPP’s on FanDuel. Of course, this is all dependent on how well the limited superstars on the slate do. So for this reason I will be playing a little lighter tonight, around 60 percent of my usual bankroll.

My wife informed about 15 minutes ago I have a doctor’s appointment today at 1:30 pm. It is now almost 11 a.m. EST. This leaves little time for me to finish everything I have to do. For instance, I have already researched an NBA slate, did a bank deposit, inventory, shopping, and opening duties at my bar. After I write this article I have to rush to the doctors, go back to my bar and cook for our Dart League banquet tonight, go to my uncle Hank's wake, all while checking my phone to make sure my players are playing in DFS.  So being that as usual my life is crazy and I need 29 hours in a day to get everything done, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 2.5-point underdogs versus the New York Knicks in a game with a 215 expected point total tonight this makes Russell Westbrook almost impossible to pass on. He is averaging over 45 fantasy ppg on the season and has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in four of his last 10 games hitting the 60 mark once. The Knicks are allowing 21 ppg to point guards on the season and I see no other player at his position with a better chance to hit 60 fantasy points tonight. If by some chance Carmelo Anthony, who is listed as probable, does not play tonight then he is better for GPP play than cash games do the blowout risk.

If you decided you do not like the blowout risk if Melo does not play with Westbrook tonight then another great option is Damian Lillard. This is a great game to attack with the Kings taking a late double-overtime loss to the Hornets last night. Not to mention the high 215.5 expected point total to boot. The Kings are allowing 22.7 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to ppg, on fresh legs. Lillard has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games hitting 50 and 60 once, respectively, and should easily handle the tired Kings tonight. If I have to choose between Westbrook or Lillard I would go Lillard due to the low $8,800 price tag on FanDuel.

Ish Smith has scored over 40 fantasy ppg four times in his last 10 games. The Suns-Sixers game tonight is a bevy of salary relief and point guard is no exception. Smith still has a low price tag for a player with 40 fantasy point upside across the industry. The Suns are allowing 24.9 ppg (highest in NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and I would not be surprised if he returned 5X value tonight. I mean how often do you see Philadelphia as a three-point favorite?

Staying with the Suns-Sixers game, if you want to save tonight then Archie Goodwin is almost a must play. With the Suns all banged up Goodwin has a real chance to play 40 minutes tonight or close to it for the low price of $4,100 on FanDuel, and the minimum to near minimum industry wide. In the last two games he has scored over 60 fantasy points combined and faces a Sixers team allowing 20.4 ppg and the 17^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season tonight.

I think with all the value tonight on the board people will overlook Michael Carter-Williams. The Magic-Bucks game has the second lowest expected point total of the evening at 195.5 with the Bucks being 5.5-point favorites. MCW has scored over 30 fantasy ppg five times in the last 10 games going over 40 three times hitting 50 once. He plays heavy minutes on a nightly basis and tonight faces a Magic team that is anything but special allowing 20.7 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards. With all the value tonight I believe he will be overlooked and low owned making him a great GPP play.

Shooting Guard

C.J. McCollum in back-to-back games has posted the same numbers. He has scored 28 points with three rebounds and three assists for 36.1 fantasy points on FanDuel. McCollum is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg on the season facing a Kings team allowing 23.3 ppg (highest in NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. This makes him the guy to spend up on at this position if you are so inclined. I at this time am having trouble myself getting him into my lineup tonight. I am going cheap at shooting guard.

The guy I see no way you pass on is Devin Booker. Once again we have a player on a banged up team playing major minutes. Booker is averaging over 40 minutes per game in the last three scoring over 30 fantasy ppg twice. He is a player I only take in a good matchup which he has tonight with the Sixers allowing 21 ppg to shooting guards on the season and running in the bottom half in fantasy points allowed. For the price I have him locked in.

If I was to spend up tonight at the shooting guard position the other player I would be looking at is Khris Middleton. He is on a quite a tear right now scoring over 30 fantasy ppg in nine of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark twice with several games around 37. The Magic may be allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards, but most shooting guards are not Khris Middleton. I see no reason if you pay up you will be disappointed here tonight.

As much as I love the late bullet and to pick on teams facing the Lakers, when dealing with the Mavericks and Spurs it seems most nights in these types of matchups you see the starters show up in suits and eat nachos. Usually after lineup lock on FanDuel. For this reason the Dallas side of the Mavericks-Lakers game unless we get early confirmation, I am for the most part avoiding.

One guy who I am sure will play tonight, though, is Lou Williams for the Lakers. One thing I love about “Sweet Lou” is consistency. I believe I have previously stated he is that guy who always hovers around the same price ($5,500 - $6,000 on FanDuel) and always gets you at least 20 fantasy points. He actually has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in 10 straight games going over 30 three times hitting 50 once. In this span he has faced Utah twice and San Antonio once always being consistent. If you want a consistent late bullet to help you feel like you are still in it to the end tonight here is the guy.

Small Forward

The small forward position has some nice value along with a few superstars. Kevin Durant is, of course, the top option on the slate if you are going to spend up at SF. He has the highest ceiling scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games eclipsing the 50 mark twice. I have been unable to fit him in my lineup along with the other guys I have, but I would be lying if I didn’t tell you that I tried like hell. If you can afford him play him.

Although he is the second best option at SF tonight Paul George is the player I currently have in my early cash game lineup due to price. The matchup is not as great as I would like with the Clippers allowing the 17^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards but George is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg and has scored over 40 fantasy ppg four times in the last 10 games. He is one of three small forwards tonight who has a chance to put up 40 fantasy points and tonight you will need them.

Just in case you have missed it Chandler Parsons is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg in the last three games. If he does not get rested tonight (which I doubt he will) he will be facing the Lakers who are allowing 19.4 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards. This game has a decent 201.5 expected point total and if I gain any exposure tonight to this game it will be in the form of Parsons. The Mavs did have yesterday off so let’s hope they are let loose tonight. It will be a lot more fun.

It’s like beating a dead horse but the Suns-Sixers game is a lot the like the dollar menu at McDonalds in the sense that you can get two for the price of one, although neither are all that delicious. As a matter of fact, if I was to compare an NBA player to a McDouble then P.J. Tucker would be that guy. You see the McDouble needs that extra piece of cheese you get with the actual double-cheeseburger on the menu much like Tucker will never be Paul George. He is just simply lacking that extra piece of cheese. He is, however, playing tons of minutes with most of the team unable to play due to injury. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg now in eight of his last 10 games going over the 30 mark once. His price is only $4,500 facing a Sixers team allowing 21 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. These are all things that say he is a great play tonight in any format.

I really do not see the need, but in a stars and scrubs GPP tonight the guy I would use is Justise Winslow. He has been playing more than 30 minutes per game in the last three scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in each. The Nets are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards and as long as Winslow starts again tonight I can already tell you I have him in my GPP for $3,800 on FanDuel.

Power Forward

I will not be spending up in any fashion tonight at PF. I just do not see the upside in it tonight. We have several value plays all capable of eclipsing 30 fantasy points or at least getting close to it. The problem is we have too many of them.

If Ian Mahinmi sits, my favorite play tonight at the power forward position is Myles Turner. Talk about impressive, Turner has scored 26.8, 45.6, and 30.2 fantasy ppg in the last three facing the Suns, Warriors, and Kings. Tonight, if he plays he will be facing a Clippers team allowing 22.1 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. To be honest, I think he still gets minutes even if Mahinmi comes back. I mean the kid does look good.

One of the things that has driven me nuts this week is not being able to use both Willie Cauley-Stein and Boogie in the same lineup on FanDuel. Well in typical FanDuel fashion better late then never they fixed it. The problem is Boogie has been playing at PF, not center. So even though they fixed the situation they fixed it ass backwards. Great job!

Since getting the starting nod at center, Cauley-Stein has been a great addition. He is averaging well over 25 fantasy ppg in the last four and tonight faces a Portland team allowing 21.8 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. His price has risen slightly but for $4,300 on FanDuel he is hard to pass on.

Keeping with the cheap players who can give us 30 tonight Aaron Gordon could be worth a flyer. He has been starting lately and even off the bench he has managed to score more than 20 fantasy ppg in six of the last ten going over 30 once. He faces a Bucks team tonight that is allowing 19.3 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. Of the three I prefer him less than the two above but I will have exposure to him somewhere by night's end.

Just a quick note before I move on. If Carmelo Anthony (GTD – Knee) sits tonight, and at the moment he is listed as probable, then it is time to let the elves out of the cupboard to swarm the Thunder. Kristaps Porzingis is an up and down ride fantasy-wise. You never know if you are going to get 25 fantasy points or 40 fantasy points. The big problem is he puts up stinkers versus bad defenses and lights up tough defenses. If Melo sits, then I am on him tonight, otherwise I would not touch him with a 10-foot pole.

Earlier I mentioned having a lineup with Lillard, Westbrook, George, and DeMarcus Cousins. These two players below both have to start tonight for this GPP combo to work for me. They are Larry Nance and either Dwight Powell or Charlie Villanueva.

Nance would be facing a Dallas team allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards while whoever starts for Dallas (besides Dirk Nowitzki who is banged up) would be facing a Lakers team allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. The $4,200 for Nance and the $3,500 for the above mentioned players on FanDuel frees up just enough salary to get those four stars I mentioned along with some safer value plays above. Nance has shown 30 fantasy point upside and both Dallas backups have shown the ability to get you 25 when starting. This is a GPP only play.

Center

If you think you can cash tonight with 25 fantasy points out of your center then for the most part you can just send the people who hit 30 your money. I believe any of the three guys below will get to that 30 mark for you tonight.

DeMarcus Cousins is the guy to spend for tonight if you are going to. I see no way you pass on him. He has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in eight of his last 10 games going over the 60 mark four times and hitting 70 last night in a double overtime loss to the Hornets. He might have hit 80 fantasy points but he fouled out. The Trail Blazers are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Boogie should dance it up again tonight.

The next player who I believe will hit 30 fantasy points is Tyson Chandler. With the Suns decimated with injury Chandler is playing tons of minutes as well and has scored over 80 fantasy points in the last two games combined. The Sixers are allowing 20.7 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to centers on the season and I see no reason he does not get to 30 tonight.

Last but not least I have said in several articles one guy you can always count on for 30 fantasy points when he gets a favorable matchup is Mason Plumlee. He has hit the 30 mark four times in the last 10 games versus the Clippers, Lakers, Thunder, and Wizards. Get my point? The Kings are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to centers and Plumlee will have no problem returning at least 5X value tonight.

Good luck tonight.