NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 23, 2016

It is snowing and my power has flickered several times so I will keep the intro short. We have several canceled games and for some reason on FanDuel, the Knicks-Hornets game does not exist. So with the game absent it was excluded from my model. I did a quick check and the only guy I would use is Kristaps Porzingis or Spencer Hawes for some salary relief depending on the status of Cody Zeller.

So with snow falling and running late as usual, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

Anytime I see the Lakers are playing, a little happiness settles over me for I know I will have a few easy picks that day. The first guy I inserted into my early cash game lineup was Damian Lillard. Prior to Lillard’s last three games he put together a string of five games where he averaged over 50 fantasy ppg. His price is only $8,800 on FanDuel tonight which I feel is a real bargain facing a Lakers team allowing 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Keep in mind this game does have a blowout risk with Portland being 11-point favorites. I feel this line is a bit high and this game will stay closer but hey, I am not a Vegas oddsmaker.

I love food. I often tell my wife I want to start writing about it. You know what else I love? Chocolate. Not anything crazy, just a plain Hershey Bar once in awhile. When I was a kid, for 25-cents I used to buy Reggie bars.

Although he is not the guy who was known for his fights with Billy Martin, Reggie Jackson is the guy I am currently pairing with Lillard in my early cash game lineup. He burned me the last time I took him and I do not see this happening again. Prior to his stinker versus the Pelicans on Thursday night, Jackson was averaging over 35 fantasy ppg over the previous three. His price is down to $6,900 which is hard to pass on facing a Nuggets team allowing 23.1 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. I am counting on 35 tonight.

Kyrie Irving is much like Carmelo Anthony in the sense that although he has big games in good matchups, I just for some reason never use him. Tonight is another one of those nights. Although I will more than likely pass on him myself because my mind is set on my other two choices, if you wanted to look elsewhere this a great place to start. Irving has 40 fantasy point upside facing a Bulls team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. This game also has blowout risk with Cleveland being 10.5-point favorites, but I really feel the Cavaliers are going to show the world how good they are with a new coach, making Irving a fine play tonight.

The Bulls are in for a dogfight. They also just took a tough loss to the Celtics and are looking to rebound. Everyone is telling them they do not have a chance going into tonight’s game as heavy underdogs. Sometimes in sports a sure thing is not so sure. Derrick Rose gets the best DVP matchup tonight for the Bulls, facing a Cleveland team allowing 21.5 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Rose is coming off back-to-back games where he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg and I see no reason this will not happen again tonight.

The one thing I love about Jordan Clarkson is the consistency. He plays over 30 minutes per night on most nights, he usually gets you around 25 fantasy ppg with 30 point upside and his price is always around $5,800. If I was building a lineup where I needed to get a point guard tonight for under $6,000 then Clarkson facing a Portland team allowing 21.5 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season is the man.

Shooting Guard

I like quite a few options at shooting guard tonight but a lot of them depend on who plays and who sits. For the most part, I am going to exclude Phoenix players today because the whole starting lineup is questionable, doubtful, and all pretty much GTD’s. If it ends up being that several of the banged up Phoenix players sit then the remaining players all become value plays for the pure volume of minutes they will play.

Monta Ellis scores higher today in my model than any other shooting guard and for good reason. First off, the Pacers-Kings game has a huge 214.5 expected point total with Sacramento being three-point favorites. So we should have little blowout risk. Ellis is averaging almost 30 fantasy ppg over the last 10 games going over 30 on five occasions. The Kings are allowing 23.6 ppg (the most in the NBA) and the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and it is all about “Ellis Island” tonight.

Keep an eye on the George Hill situation, he should play tonight but if he does not, Joseph Young who is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg in the last three is a great value play for the minimum price across the industry.

I try to avoid writing about Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or KCP, due to my propensity for fried chicken. This goes back to the whole food thing and how my brain responds. You see, I already can taste them delicious herbs and spices. The sad part, the nearest KFC is almost an hour away.

It may not be Sunday but the Pope is a great option tonight. He is averaging over 24 fantasy ppg going over the 30 mark in three of his last six. The Nuggets are allowing 21.4 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and if you decide to shy away from Ellis then I believe this is the next best option.

If you really want to spend up tonight C.J. McCollum is a great option when facing the Lakers. McCollum plays heavy minutes and has that 40 fantasy point upside when he goes off. The way I see it, if a guy is going to have an explosive night it is going to be against the team allowing 23.2 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the fourth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards.

If you want to spend down big time in a GPP but still get some action versus the Lakers, then Allen Crabbe, who has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games going over the 30 mark once, is a decent punt play. If this game is a blowout he should see a few extra minutes off the bench, if not he still plays over 25 minutes most nights and should achieve value regardless for a low price across the industry.

In nine straight games Lou Williams has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg while going over 30 twice and 50 once. The Trail Blazers are on the bottom half of the grid defensively and are allowing 20.2 ppg to shooting guards on the season. This game has a nice 207 expected point total and Williams is a great way to get some exposure to it.

Small Forward

As with most nights LeBron James is the top play at the small forward position with the highest ceiling. He finally started to break out, scoring over 45 fantasy points versus the Clippers on Thursday night with a double-double. Tonight he gets the Bulls who are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards and with a new coach and a lot of media coverage tonight I love the King to reign supreme. Not sure if I am using him in my cash game or GPP lineup but he is fine for both.

Last night Paul George was the first guy I inserted into my lineup and the same goes tonight. He got me good last night putting up a stinker scoring less than 20 fantasy points versus the Warriors. I do not expect this to continue. In his last 10 games, George has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg five times and is averaging 38 fantasy ppg on the season. The Kings are allowing 20.5 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season. One thing life has taught me is superstars like this rarely give you back-to-back stinkers. Maybe he could become King George?

As usual on FanDuel Khris Middleton is at SF even though he is playing at SG. If you are looking to fade George and James tonight but still want to try to snag near 40 fantasy points this is the guy. The Pelicans are allowing 21.4 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and Middleton has scored more than 30 fantasy points in six straight averaging almost 37 during the span.

Shabazz Muhammad has played over 25 minutes per game in four straight, getting in over 30 twice. He also has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg six times in the last 10 games. If you are looking for a cheap boom or bust punt play for a GPP tonight than this is the guy. The Grizzlies are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and this gives you a reason to watch the game in the hopes of catching Mark Kaplan dressed like Elvis.

Power Forward

Which way I go at power forward tonight is relative to where the players are slotted on each site. On FanDuel tonight I am spending up for Anthony Davis. Usually I do not do this. Quite frankly, scares me. Tonight it just feels right though on FanDuel. He has scored exactly 47.4 fantasy points on FanDuel in back-to-back games and tonight is facing a Bucks team allowing 22.7 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. If he is going to have a good night this is the matchup.

Who I am using after Davis on FanDuel in the second power forward slot is an easy one. For the low price of $4,200 on FanDuel I will be rolling out Myles Turner. With Ian Mahinmi out Turner is playing around 30 minutes per game and taking full advantage of it scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in two of the last three. The Kings are allowing a ton of fantasy points to everyone and Turner should have another solid night tonight. I will be using either Turner or Hawes on Draft Kings.

Ersan Ilyasova was another culprit involved in the Detroit debacle the other night where both himself and Reggie Jackson failed to reach 20 fantasy points. It is a new day in DFS and for Ilysova and Detroit who I expect to come out hard tonight. The Nuggets are allowing 22.4 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and I see Ilysova putting up 30 fantasy points tonight, something he has done four times in the last seven games.

If Larry Nance Jr. is out tonight which seems likely than Julius Randle is a great play. With Nance out he is seeing an increase in minutes and averaging over 27 fantasy ppg. The Trailblazers are allowing 20.3 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards which is a nice matchup for a nice price across the industry.

Jabari Parker? I mean the kid is getting it done. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg six of his last seven games dropping over 30 fantasy points versus the Rockets last night. Tonight he gets the Pelicans and he deserves a serious look in GPP play.

Center

At the moment I am using three centers tonight and that is it. Well, four if you count Hawes on DraftKIngs.

On FanDuel tonight I will be using Willie Cauley-Stein. Since moving into the starting role at center Stein has been lights out averaging over 30 fantasy ppg in the last two. The Pacers are one of the better teams defensively but are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to the center position on the season. His price is low and I am all in.

On FanDuel if you want to spend up at center than DeMarcus Cousins is the man. He has scored over 50 fantasy points seven times in the last 10 games going over 60 three times. He is in the four now but FanDuel still has him in the five which sucks because it cancels out the Cauley-Stein-Cousins combo you can use on DraftKings. The matchup could be better with the Pacers allowing the 13^th fewest fantasy ppg to the small forward position on the season but I doubt they stop Boogie from dancing all over them.

Mason Plumlee is exactly the kind of player who has big games against weak defenses but struggles against tough ones. The Lakers are allowing 22.2 ppg (the second most in the NBA) and the most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. He is cheap and has 30 fantasy upside as well. Need I say more?

Good luck tonight.