NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 21, 2016

My DFS game has suffered lately. It took me a bit but I believe I found the bug in my model that has been causing my DFS action to suffer. I made a few tweaks in it about nine days ago and these tweaks changed my outcomes drastically. Prior to the tweaks going through my FanDuel history I was cashing my 50/50’s at around a 75-percent cash rate and tournaments about 30 percent. Since the tweak I made I have cashed twice in the last nine days. That is a huge difference. I guess the old saying is true, “don’t fix what isn’t broken.”

So I lost 90 percent of my bankroll in the last nine days but the good news is that I still have 10 percent left to build on. So with a new day upon me and hopefully the ship heading in the right direction now, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

When you’re trapped in addiction it consumes your thoughts. Your mind plays tricks on you and you imagine better days when you had your “precious” drug of choice. Gollum thinks back to his finer games often. The games where he achieved his precious triple-double.

The last time Rajon Rondo faced the Atlanta Hawks was on Nov. 18, 2015. In this game he had 12 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists. He also had seven turnovers which leaves a lot to be desired. The Hawks-Kings game tonight has a huge 218.5 expected point total with the Kings only being one-point favorites. It is clear this is the game to attack tonight and I plan on having at least two players from each team in my lineup. Rondo has had three double-doubles in the last four games while averaging over 35 fantasy ppg. We do have better matchups DVP wise on the board tonight but Rondo still gets my call and is in my early cash game lineup.

In a perfect world you would be crafty enough to get both Rondo and Chris Paul in your lineup although it is not necessary. With Blake Griffin out, Paul continues to benefit along with J.J. Redick making both of them hard to not play on most nights. Cleveland is a tough team defensively but has troubles defending the point guard position, allowing 21.3 ppg on the season. Paul has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over 50 twice and 60 once. His price is the only reason he comes in below Rondo today in my model. I am not sure right now exactly how, but I will have exposure to him tonight in some fashion.

Mike Conley, which I am more than positive puts a smile on both Mark Kaplan’s and Ronnie Shelton’s faces, is back in action. Speaking of Kaplan, if you happen to follow me on Twitter you would have seen a pretty funny photo of Kaplan at a Grizzlies game dressed in what looks like either an Elvis suit or human cannonball outfit. I prefer to think Elvis as I find that funnier. Oh, back to Conley.

Monday night versus the Pelicans, Conley returned to action with a double-double posting 15 points and 10 assists in 27 minutes scoring over 30 fantasy points. Tonight he gets the Nuggets who are allowing 23.1 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season for the low price of $6,600 on FanDuel. I really see no way to fit Paul and Rondo in cash games and still be happy, so Conley is a fine option to pair with either.

Jrue Holiday has been on quite a tear this season quietly coming off the bench. He plays heavy minutes and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games including firing off back-to-back games putting up over 35 fantasy points. Although the Pistons are allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg on the season to the point guard position they are allowing 22 ppg as well. On a small slate for a decent price Holiday is both cash game and GPP viable.

Another guy I like tonight if I need to lock up a consistent 25 fantasy point performance is Jeff Teague. Although his upside is the mid-to-high 20 fantasy point range so is his floor. Some of the other positions tonight will leave you deciding whether to spend up or go bargain basement and locking in 25 fantasy points from Teague and saving money to spend elsewhere is better than getting 35 fantasy points out of a more expensive point guard and losing 20 points at another position like small forward for example. If this happens what did you gain? Teague has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven straight and with the Kings allowing 22.9 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards he is a great way to tap into that high 218.5 expected point total while saving money.

The Spurs-Suns game tonight is a huge question mark. The Suns are horribly beat up right now which is something I will get more into later in this article. Tony Parker has been ruled out for tonight in this expected blowout with the Spurs being 14-point favorites. The problem is, it is a late game which is always a pain in the ass in the NBA for DFS purposes. With the Spurs facing Phoenix they could just decide to unload their bench tonight and rest their starters. Either way you can expect most of them to sit a lot tonight leaving the majority GPP plays only.

If Patty Mills gets the start tonight at the point guard position, he becomes an enormous source of salary relief for the minimum across the industry. The most minutes he has played all season is 28 twice versus a healthier Suns team on Nov. 23 and the Bucks on January 4 in which he scored in double-digits both games. If you can grab 20 fantasy points tonight out of Mills for the price it sure could go far in loading up elsewhere. Keep an eye on this game as it could open up other huge values plays.

Shooting Guard

We have little in the way of stars tonight to choose from at the shooting guard position on top of it being very thin.

The first guy I plugged into my early cash game lineup is actually playing SF but FanDuel is nice enough to have him at SG. Kent Bazemore has seen a decrease in price lately with a few bad performances versus the Magic and Bucks where he failed to reach the 15 fantasy point mark combined. Ouch. Outside of this he has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10 games scoring over 30 fantasy points three times, one of them being last night versus Portland. Tonight he gets the Kings who are allowing 20.6 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season which is always a nice bonus.

He has decided with fortune in his favor he that will stick around this planet for a spell and continue to wreak havoc until it no longer excites him. He also does not like movies with too many sequels. This may not be a real movie but the "Chronicles of J.J. Redick" will continue as long as Blake Griffin, who is getting closer to return, is sidelined. In the last two games played, Redick has scored 30.6 and 43.2 fantasy points on FanDuel facing the Kings and Rockets. Tonight he gets a tough matchup with Cleveland allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but as long as the shot attempts stay he will produce.

If you want to save a few bucks on Redick you can pivot to Jamal Crawford for $4,400 on FanDuel who has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in five straight. I would use either in cash games but prefer Redick for the upside.

KCP, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who because of my “fat guy syndrome” makes me think of fried chicken, is tearing it up lately for a decent price of $5,900 on FanDuel. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games and tonight gets a sweet defensive matchup with the Pelicans allowing 21.1 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. He doesn’t get you a ton of rebounds and assists but he does have the ability to drop 25 points on a bad defense.

The Grizzlies are a great source of salary relief today with great matchups versus a defensively inept Nuggets team. The last time Tony Allen faced the Nuggets he scored over 30 fantasy points. He is playing at SF right now but FanDuel has him at SG. The Nuggets are just over the defensive hump allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and Allen is getting plenty of minutes. As of late he has been a huge letdown but for $4,400 on FanDuel tonight he could be that GPP play that separates you from the pack. Or, you could get 15 fantasy points. Risk versus reward in its truest form here.

You will see a few Suns in a horrible matchup versus the Spurs tonight in this article. With the Spurs being such heavy favorites, even if they do not rest their starters they will more than likely play reduced minutes. With a ton of injuries on the team, the starters for Phoenix right now are playing around 40 minutes per game. Devin Booker is a guy in one of these bad matchups tonight with San Antonio allowing the second fewest ppg at 17.1 and the fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards. The last time Booker played the Spurs he had 10 fantasy points in 24 minutes. If he can get you 25 fantasy points tonight versus what I am assuming will be the Spurs bench in 40 minutes of play then it appears we got a bargain. Booker has scored over 20 fantasy ppg five times in the last 10 going over the 30 mark three times. Do not expect him to drop 30 tonight but you never know. GPP only.

Small Forward

Our choices at small forward tonight are like a menu from a gluten-free, vegan, Ethiopian restaurant in the sense that there is nothing I really like, but will be forced to eat out of starvation.

The guy I currently have in my early cash game lineup is Danilo Gallinari. I am trying to regain my bankroll so consistency is the key tonight in my cash games. The truth is, when your bankroll gets low you have to play a low bankroll strategy and not a high bankroll strategy. I will give you an example. If I was at full bankroll tonight I would use a guy like Devin Booker in my lineup or a Patty Mills if he starts for cash games. Not having the luxury of taking a little extra risk forces myself anyhow to play it “safe.” This is where Gallinari comes in. In the last nine games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg eight times going over 40 twice. His floor is 30 and his ceiling is 40. When constructing my lineups I always use the floor not the ceiling when trying to reach 300 points. The Grizzlies are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season which is the best DVP matchup for the night for the Nuggets and injury or foul trouble aside I should be able to rely on that 30 tonight.

The other top dog tonight at small forward to pay up for is Rudy Gay. He has been on fire lately scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games. On a slate with little to choose from at this position, the only thing that is keeping him out of my early cash game lineups is I do not want to overexpose myself to the Kings' side of the game tonight. By rule of thumb I do not like to use more than two players from one team in one lineup. If I end up moving off of Rondo tonight I will insert Gay.

Marcus Morris, who I wrote about yesterday but yet again was afraid to be burned so I faded him, continues to impress. He has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in three straight while getting plenty of minutes. Outside Kawhi Leonard and Gallinari tonight none of the DVP matchups are all that enticing which leads us back to that whole bad menu thing. I would certainly rather use a Morris versus the Pelicans over a P.J. Tucker facing the Spurs. Or would I?

Phoenix has a chance tonight to be down to around nine healthy players. That spells minutes galore for the remaining lucky fellows who get to face the Spurs. One of the players in question tonight is T.J. Warren who is dealing with a knee injury. With Warren out Tucker who played a whopping 45 minutes versus the Pacers on Tuesday night scoring over 30 fantasy points becomes a great option. The last time Tucker faced the Spurs he scored 15.4 fantasy points on FanDuel in 25 minutes. It stands to reason in 40 minutes he will get you 25 right?

Power Forward

Paul Millsap was almost an instant add when I started building my early cash game lineup. In five of his last 10 games he has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg with the floor being around 38. The last time Millsap faced the Kings he scored 23 points with 16 rebounds on Nov. 18. A high expected point total facing a team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to power forwards drives this pick home facing boogie or no boogie.

Naturally, on a small slate with a limited amount of superstars Anthony Davis comes into play. The problem with Davis is he has not scored 50 fantasy points now in his last five games. He is averaging around 44 or so over the last four games and I believe I can get that from Millsap for much cheaper without worrying he will stub his toe and have to sit out the game. The Pistons are allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and providing he puts on his big boy pants tonight he should make a fine GPP play.

Ersan Ilyasova is a player who let me down so many times early in the season that I have been unable to muster the courage to play him. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg now in four of his last six games with one stinker and the other being a 27 fantasy point performance versus the Warriors on Jan. 16. The Pelicans are allowing 19.8 ppg (one of the higher on the slate) and the 20^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards and I declare him cash game safe tonight.

You want a super boom or bust tonight? The Suns are so banged up they signed a 10-day contract with Cory Jefferson on Wednesday. Tonight we have Markieff Morris (shoulder), Jon Leuer (back), and Mirza Teletovic (ankle) all in serious question. This does not leave much does it? The last time Jefferson played happened to be versus the Spurs on Dec. 30 where he scored eight fantasy points in eight minutes of play. His price is the minimum across the industry and if the other guys sit tonight he is a great GPP play for that stars and scrubs lineup where he should get plenty of minutes. You will have to check each site to see his availability.

Center

Much like yesterday I will only be using one of three centers tonight.

DeMarcus Cousins in the last 10 games has scored more than 50 fantasy points six times going over the 60 mark on three of these occasions. At the moment he is projected to start tonight at PF. I could go on and on but if you do not know how great Cousins is playing, then wait for baseball season. I currently have him in my early cash game lineup on FanDuel.

Andre Drummond is the other guy I would spend up on if not Cousins. Upside is high and the floor is more than acceptable. The Pelicans are allowing 21 ppg and the second most fantasy ppg to centers on the season and for almost $3,000 less than Cousins on FanDuel he may be the better cash game play tonight.

If Cousins starts at PF and Willie Cauley-Stein starts tonight at center on FanDuel I will be using him over Boogie. He scored over 20 fantasy points versus Utah on Jan. 14^th and put up over 30 fantasy points last night versus the lowly Lakers. The Hawks are allowing 21 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to centers making either of these guys who start in the center tonight a must play. On the other sites where Boogie is in the PF slot I would use both of them for sure tonight. Not to mention Cauley-Stein is the minimum across the industry.

Good luck tonight.