NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 20, 2016

Do you remember this line from yesterday? “Well, without jinxing myself I believe I have passed through my first losing streak of the season.” The funny thing about this particular line is the moment it passed from my fingertips to my keyboard I knew I would be losing last night. I was thinking about how if I did lose, I would write about it today while writing it. That is how sure I was in this kick in the pants from the DFS gods.

You have to learn from your mistakes. I decided at 6 p.m. that I really had to have Karl-Anthony Towns in my cash game lineup. So I dropped Nikola Jokic and upgraded to Towns. The problem is, in the process I ended up with Dion Waiters (who was not in my article yesterday for a reason) and Markieff Morris. Now add in the “value” play of Tyler Johnson and you got squat. Or at least I did. The cash out in the two 50/50’s I played in was 251.6 and 260.4. I scored 234.8. Ouch.

One of the things I do daily is break down my lineup and see what the hell happened. It usually makes me feel better, sort of, because many times like last night I find, for the most part, it was random things I could not predict that sunk me. For instance, Tyler Johnson had two personal fouls in under three minutes and Markieff Morris was injured and had to come out of the game early. Over 80 percent of my fellow competitors had Tyler Johnson so he was a wash. The difference maker was the Morris injury and the dud of a pick in Dion Waiters.

Learn from your mistakes right? The truth is I knew the moment I put Waiters in last night I had a position I felt anything but safe with. It was either him or Devin Booker and Waiters had been playing decent minutes and putting up over 20 fantasy ppg in the last three. He also was facing a Nuggets team allowing the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards, all this was enticing. On the other side of the coin, Booker had been atrocious as of late. So even though Booker scored 32 points while playing 40 minutes last night, and Waiters went to lunch, I still feel I made the right decision on this one. More often than not, this is a numbers game and more often than not, they work. It just did not for me last night.

With a new evening and huge 11-game slate ahead of us, I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

I am not sure right now exactly how I am going tonight yet at the point guard position. There are several viable options and some value as well tonight.

It is not easy living with an addiction on your back. For some it is heroin, for some it is crack, for Gollum it is his precious triple-double and tonight the Lakers will pay. Far too long has he waited in the dark for that moment to take advantage of horrible defenses.

Rajon Rondo scored higher than any point guard in my model tonight and for good reason. The Kings-Lakers game has the highest expected point total on the evening at 215 and the Kings are only 6.5-point favorites.

Rondo has failed to hit 40 fantasy points now in his last five games but has had four double-doubles in the last nine. Gollum is way overdue for a breakout game and I cannot imagine a better team to do it against than the Lakers who are allowing 23.7 ppg, the most fantasy ppg, and an incredible 27.4 ppg over the last five to the point guard position. He is cash game and GPP viable tonight on such a huge slate.

If you want to spend up even more then it is hard to resist Stephen Curry tonight. Curry is averaging over 50 fantasy ppg over the last four and tonight gets the Bulls in the game with the second highest expected point total of the evening at 214.5 with the Warriors being only 6.5-point favorites. The Bulls are allowing 20.2 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards while surrendering 22.9 ppg over the last five. If you are going to spend up for Curry this is the game.

The guy I currently have in my cash game lineup is Kemba Walker. Walker has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games and easily scores in the double-digits on a nightly basis. The last time he faced the Thunder he scored over 50 fantasy points and with them allowing 23 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season I see no reason why he shouldn’t feast again tonight.

Ish Smith continues to get it done on a nightly basis. In five of his last 10 games he has scored over 40 fantasy points. His price is starting to rise but for his upside he is still a bargain. The Magic are allowing 20.7 ppg, the 21^st most fantasy ppg, and 23.1 ppg over the last five to point guards. Smith is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg a number I suspect will keep rising.

Looking for a bit of value tonight? Donald Sloan is actually playing fairly well for a backup point guard. In his last three games he has scored 36.3, 23.8, and 29.6 fantasy points on FanDuel averaging around 30 minutes of play. The Cavaliers are allowing 21.4 ppg, the 20^th most fantasy ppg, and 23.5 ppg to point guards over the last five. For the low price of $4,400 on FanDuel he could free up some cash to get some big guns in later while netting you near the 30 mark.

If you want to go even cheaper, here is a guy tonight for a stars and scrubs GPP only. Patrick Beverley is questionable for tonight with a sprained ankle. If he does not play then Ty Lawson could be a tremendous source of value if he gets the minutes. He scored over 20 fantasy points in 30 minutes versus the Lakers which, to be honest, is far from a plus but he is the minimum to near minimum across the industry. If you can get 20 fantasy points tonight out of him then you got a deal. The Pistons are allowing the most ppg in the NBA over the last five to the point guard position at 27.9 ppg and 21.9 ppg on the season which at least provides a glimmer of hope for a big game.

Shooting Guard

Lou Williams is the first guy I inserted in my cash game lineup for tonight. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine of his last 10 games going over 30 five times hitting 40 and 50 once. He is consistent and that is what I am looking for from the SG spot tonight. Not only do I get that from Williams, but I also get upside as his game log shows. The Kings are allowing 23.6 ppg (highest in NBA), the second most fantasy ppg, and 26.4 ppg over the last five to shooting guards. The Lakers seem to be pretty banged up and Kobe is always a step away from coming out of the game so Williams usually gets tons of minutes. I am all in on sweet Lou tonight.

I am not very religious but on occasion I will go see the Pope. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or KCP, is a guy I will play in the right matchup. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg seven times in the last 10 games going over the 30 mark on three occasions. He is playing heavy minutes and the Rockets are allowing 21.7 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to shooting guards. It is not Sunday but sometimes you just have to have some faith. I like him better for GPP than cash but is certainly worthy of cash game consideration.

This next pick is half numbers and half gut instinct. I really feel as though Cleveland tonight is going to come quite pissed and destroy the Nets. I am sure they have been joking all day about how they just need to “take it out” on someone. They will imagine each Net is Stephen Curry and proceed to put in work.

J.R. Smith has shown us that big game upside scoring over 30 fantasy points twice in the last 10 games versus the Wizards and Timberwolves on Jan. 6, and Jan. 8. The Nets are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season and 20.8 ppg over the last five. For the price I feel like I am getting a bargain here across the industry and he is currently in my early cash game lineup.

If I was to use a value play tonight at the point guard position to save money and wanted to get sneaky the guy I would use is Jimmy Butler. He is the top option at SG tonight and has the highest ceiling next to James Harden with a great floor of around 35 fantasy ppg. Everyone will shy away because Klay Thompson is a notoriously stiff defender but the truth is over the last five games the Warriors are allowing 23.7 ppg to shooting guards. Butler can give you 45 fantasy points tonight and with all the other big guns on the slate with better matchups for far less money he should be forgotten making him an excellent GPP play.

Evan Fournier is a little risky but in a spot like most matchup dependent players to give you great return for a low price across the industry. The Sixers are horrible defenders allowing 21.5 ppg on the season and 21.8 ppg over the last five to shooting guards. He is 100 percent the definition of a boom or bust play. He could get you 30 fantasy points but he also could get you seven.

Small Forward

If you are going to spend up at the small forward position, LeBron James is the way to go. He is, after all, no matter how pretentious I think it is the King. He has been quiet failing to score 40 fantasy points in three straight games. The Nets are allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and James should tune up on them tonight. Just keep in mind Cleveland is 12.5-point favorites so if it gets out of hand he may sit.

Marcus Morris, much like his brother, has been dead to me most of the season. Whenever I take either of them they burn me. Morris has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in two straight even scoring over 35 fantasy points versus the Warriors on Jan. 16. The Rockets are allowing 21.3 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to small forwards so the matchup is right. He still makes me nervous so he will be reserved for GPP play only.

Rudy Gay who fails on most nights to make me sing in the rain is currently sitting in my first small forward slot on FanDuel. I plan on having at least two or three players at the minimum in this Kings-Lakers game tonight. The last time Gay faced the Lakers he scored 35 fantasy points and as long as he gets hot I see no reason he shouldn’t hit 35 again tonight. The Lakers are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season making the matchup right.

I am looking for that guy to pair with Gay tonight in a good matchup who I can count on to get me 25 fantasy points to pair with the 35 I am hoping to snag from Gay. Tobias Harris certainly fits the mold and is the guy chilling with Gay in SF slot two on FanDuel. Harris is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg three times in the last ten. The Sixers are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to small forwards on the season and a whopping 24.9 ppg over the last five. Do what you want but I really cannot resist this tonight when you factor in his two double-doubles in the last four games.

Harrison Barnes minutes are increasing. He is up to around 30 per game and back to starting. Tonight he faces a Bulls team allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to small forwards in a game with a high expected point total. He is averaging over 20 fantasy ppg in limited play thus far for the low price of $4,700 on FanDuel. I would not have a problem using him tonight in cash or GPP play.

Power Forward

Both Draymond Green and Pau Gasol are tied for the top spots at the power forward position tonight (Gasol is in the four on FanDuel).

Green is the guy currently sitting in my cash game lineup like most nights he plays and I do not see myself moving off of him. He is one of the few players in the NBA I almost expect a triple-double out of. The Bulls are allowing 21.5 ppg over the last five to power forwards and Green is capable of dropping 50 fantasy points.

Gasol with Joakim Noah out is playing around 35 minutes per game right now up from around 30. He is averaging well over 40 fantasy ppg over the last three facing a Warriors team allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to centers. The matchup could be sweeter but the minutes alone are worth the price tag for this star.

With Larry Nance out tonight Julius Randle should get plenty of minutes facing a Kings team allowing the third most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. Randle has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in five straight getting close to 30 on two occasions. For the low price in a great matchup he is a great play in cash games or GPP play.

Ersan Ilyasova has a few things going for him tonight that I like. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last five games and tonight faces the Rockets who are allowing the most fantasy ppg to power forwards on the season. You add in his low price tag industry wide and he almost seems like must play tonight. I will have exposure to him in either cash or GPP play.

Boom or bust GPP play? Aaron Gordon has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in three out of the last four games. The Sixers are allowing 23.1 ppg and the most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards. The question is minutes? Will they be there? As long as they are you will get some value here, if they are not…you get squat.

Center

I see no way to go cheap right now at center and still stay alive in cash games. I believe the amount of points scored by some of the centers tonight could leave you in the dust so I will use one of the following in cash and GPP play.

My favorite guy tonight is Rudy Gobert. The Knicks are allowing 37.4 ppg to centers over the last five games and Gobert has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in back-to-back games. His price is still fair at $7,500 on FanDuel and he gets my current early cash game lineup call.

DeMarcus Cousins is on fire right now. He has scored over 50 fantasy ppg five times going over the 60 mark twice in his last seven games while posting seven straight double-doubles. His price is high but he is facing the Lakers tonight which makes him really hard to pass on.

Andre Drummond has a price tag now under $9,000. He is averaging a touch over 40 fantasy ppg in his last two and with the Rockets defense running in the middle-of-the-road he should hit the 40 mark tonight no problem. He just seems like a deal considering the upside he has shown us in the past.

Good Luck tonight!