NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 15, 2016

Nice nine-game slate and my day has been crazy as is all my Fridays. I have bank deposits, errands, payroll to do, etc. It is not easy running a bar and doing all the work I do elsewhere. So being it is already almost 4 pm EST I will cut this short. Just be weary of value tonight. Plenty of options outside of it. Why take the risk in cash games?

So with a nice slate ahead of us I bring you the position coach article.

Point Guard

Even though we have the usual “what ifs” to contend with tonight on the slate I will be avoiding all the “value” on the board and spending up at the point guard position.

Prior to his last game, Isaiah Thomas had back-to-back games where he scored over 50 fantasy ppg while scoring more than 25 ppg in three straight. The Suns are allowing the most ppg to point guards on the season at 24.9 and the second most fantasy ppg while surrendering 27.2 ppg over the last five. I love a night where I get to use Celtics in my cash games and Thomas was in like Flynn.

The other guy tonight I currently have paired with Thomas in my cash game lineup for FanDuel is Damian Lillard. Since his return he has been on fire, scoring over 45 fantasy ppg in three straight while scoring over 60 fantasy points versus the Warriors on Jan. 8 with two double-doubles. The Brooklyn Nets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to point guards and I fully plan on riding the Lillard Train until it derails.  

In his last 10 games, Kemba Walker has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg six times, even hitting the 60 mark once versus the lowly Lakers. Tonight Walker gets to face the Pelicans in a slated close game where New Orleans is 2.5-point favorites with a decent 202 expected point total. The Pelicans are allowing 23.5 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season and I fully expect Kemba to "walker" all over them.

For some reason it always makes me chuckle just a little inside when I think of the name Ricky Rubio. Maybe I am twisted but his name sounds like a 1970’s porno star. I can picture him with a thick moustache and hairy chest asking the housewife next door if she would like to play some basketball.

The first thing that grabbed me when doing my research was that the Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing an incredible 30.4 ppg to point guards over the last five games. They also are allowing 23.2 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season as well. Rubio has 40 fantasy point upside and has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last 10 games. With better options for just a few dollars more Rubio should be low owned and is a great GPP play tonight. Bwa-Chica-Waa-Waa.

Deron Williams is about as cheap as I go tonight and I more than likely will not go this cheap. In his last game versus a tough Cavaliers defense he had a double-double posting 16 points and 10 assists while racking up over 30 fantasy points. He is in a great spot tonight to do that again with Chicago allowing 23.4 ppg to point guards over the last five games and the third most fantasy ppg on the season. His price is only $6,100 on FanDuel which is a decent price if you get over 30 fantasy points, which I believe he will come close to.

Shooting Guard

While I am spending up tonight at the point guard position I plan on going cheap at the SG position to free up some cash for later roster spots.

Kent Bazemore is actually playing at SF even though FanDuel has him at SG. He is a typical matchup-dependent play who you only touch when things line up in his favor like tonight. The Hawks-Bucks game has a high 208.5 expected point total with Atlanta only being favored by four. Milwaukee is also allowing 21.6 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to small forwards and 23.3 ppg over the last five. His price is only $5,700 and I am locking him in for 30 fantasy points tonight.

One could make a strong argument to stack three Celtics tonight. Avery Bradley is one of the three. His performance since returning from injury has not been anything to write home about, but time has shown he has 30 fantasy point upside. If he is going to have a great game I cannot think of a better team to have it against than the Suns who are allowing 24 ppg to shooting guards over the last five and the third most fantasy ppg on the season. I am still on the ropes if I am using him in my cash games but at the moment I am leading more towards GPP due to inconsistency and a airly deep Celtics bench.

Eric Gordon will not score over 40 fantasy points again tonight like he did against the Kings on Wednesday night. He played over 40 minutes in that game with Tyreke Evans leaving the game injured. His status is still in question for tonight even though Evans said he plans on playing. If Evans sits then Gordon becomes a must play tonight, facing a Charlotte team that is allowing 22.5 ppg on the season to shooting guards. If Evans does play then Gordon is more of a GPP play. If not, he is cash game viable.

The other guy I have in my cash game lineup tonight with Bazemore is J.R. Smith. First off, he is a great late bullet which I always look for. Second, he has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in two of his last five games. Tonight Smith faces a Rockets team allowing 21 ppg and the fourth most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. The Cavaliers played a tough game last night versus the Spurs so they could have slightly tired legs, but that is not scaring me off Smith tonight.

Even though a lot of people are going to be on Dwyane Wade tonight being he has a great matchup I much prefer in GPP play to ride the crazy train. Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden, is one of the most stressful players in the NBA to take in DFS. When he is hot he is unstoppable. When he is not, you pay a fortune to get 35 fantasy points. Of this my friends…I am not a fan. He has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games, but when I pay the $9,800 price tag on FanDuel I want 50 fantasy points. Pure and simple. He does make a great late bullet tonight in GPP play even though the Cavaliers are allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards.

Small Forward

Much like the point guard position I plan on spending up at small forward tonight. I am avoiding the extreme value here tonight as well.

The last time LeBron James played back-to-back games was Dec. 28 and 29 versus the Suns and the Nuggets. In both of those games James played around 35 minutes. In his last five games he is averaging over 48 fantasy ppg with three double-doubles. He is also averaging over 44 fantasy ppg on the season and is facing a Rockets team allowing 21.2 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards. The King should reign supreme and show the world tonight why he wears the crown. As pretentious as I find him.

Paul George used to be extremely expensive. Now he is just expensive. His price on FanDuel is down to $8,800. I don’t know about you but considering he has the ability to explode for 50 fantasy points I find this a deal too hard to pass on tonight. In his last eight games he has scored over 40 fantasy ppg six times going over 50 once versus Washington -- who he is playing tonight. It also helps that the Wizards are allowing 24.5 ppg over the last five to small forwards and the second most fantasy ppg on the season. I have George in my cash game lineup tonight and it will take a hell of a lot to remove him I can tell you that.

Even though he is playing at SG, FanDuel has him at SF, which is advantageous. Khris Middleton, in his last 10 games, has scored over 30 fantasy ppg six times going over the 40 mark three of them. Over the last five games the Hawks are allowing a whopping 24 ppg to shooting guards and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg on the season. His price is fair and I see no reason he doesn’t give you 30 fantasy points tonight.

Four times in the last six games, Jae Crowder has scored more than 30 fantasy points. He has become a huge part of the offense as of late for the Celtics and I cannot imagine that does not continue tonight. The Suns are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to small forwards and the way things have been as of late I see no reason why he will not take advantage of it.

Going back to the Pacers with Rodney Stuckey out C.J. Miles remains in a great spot to get some extra playing time. In the last four, Miles is suffering from the same syndrome Kristaps Porzingis did for a spell where he put up decent numbers every other game. So if you believe in that sort of thing, in his last four games on FanDuel Miles has scored 27.4, 17.8, 34.6, and 19.4 fantasy points. If you believe this insanity can continue he should score 30 fantasy points tonight. If you believe?

In the middle of writing this article Otto Porter was ruled out for tonight making Kelly Oubre a great boom or bust play. His price is the minimum across the industry and the last time he started he scored over 25 fantasy points. How and if I use him remains to be seen.

Power Forward

As impossible as this sounds, I plan on figuring out by night's end if at all possible how to get Anthony Davis in my lineups somewhere but it appears unlikely with Lillard, Thomas, and George already in there. The Hornets are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg and Davis is averaging over 40 fantasy ppg on the season. In his last game versus the Kings he score 24 points and 10 rebounds and should dominate again tonight. He has 50 fantasy point upside but comes with risk. He is Anthony Davis.

Looking for another late bullet? With Kyrie Irving back and the Cavaliers offense firing smoothly Kevin Love has seemed to depreciate as far as his price is concerned. Love is averaging over 34 fantasy ppg in his last four and tonight faces a Rockets team allowing the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to power forwards on the season. For the low price of $7,400 I already have him in my cash game lineup. Just a quick note before taking him, the Rockets also are only allowing 17.3 ppg to power forwards over the last five which is down from 23.1 ppg on the season.

Dear FanDuel,

I have been playing in the center position for quite some time now. Some writer for FantasyAlarm named Jerry Colvin, who I find rather insane and full of cartoon references, does keep raising an interesting point. Why do you still have me here? Please fix this and place me in the proper playing spot.

Your friend,

Cody Zeller

Zeller is a cheap go-to guy I use to save a few bucks when his matchup is favorable. The Pelicans are allowing a really, really, high 25 ppg over the last five and the second most fantasy ppg on the season to centers. He tends to dominate in great matchups like versus Atlanta in his last game where he put up nearly 40 fantasy points. I am all in on him tonight in my cash games for peanuts.

I really hate to say this because he always burns me, but Dirk Nowitzki is in a spot to have a great game tonight. He is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg in his last three and tonight gets to face a Bulls team allowing 26 ppg to power forwards over the last five games and 21.2 ppg on the season.

Taj Gibson who I always avoid when he performs well and take when he stinks scores quite high in my model tonight and is a great source of salary relief. His price on FanDuel is only $4,700 and he has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games hitting the 30 and 40 mark once. The Mavericks are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and 21.7 ppg over the last five. A lot of how much value you get tonight out of Gibson will be determined by the status of Derrick Rose.

Center

Greg Monroe ranks as my top center on the board tonight even though I see no way I will be able to afford him in cash games and still get the other guys I want. He is averaging just under 40 fantasy ppg over his last three and tonight gets to beat up on a Hawks team allowing 21.2 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg on the season to centers while surrendering 23.8 ppg over the last five.

Although Monroe is the top dog, the guy I am using is Mason Plumlee. The Brooklyn Nets defensively, well, suck. They are allowing 22.7 ppg (the highest in the NBA) and the third most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. Over the last five games the Nets are allowing an incredible 25.9 ppg. and Plumlee has scored over 30 fantasy points four times in the last 10 games. I say he does it again tonight.

Amir Johnson is getting a ton of minutes and handing out a ton of fantasy ppg for near peanuts across the industry. Some sites have him for the minimum. His price has risen on FanDuel to $5,500 but I still find that a bargain. FanDuel has him at center even though he seems to have settled at PF. The Suns as stated are a mess making all the Celtics starters viable tonight. Johnson is no exception. If it helps he has scored over 25 fantasy ppg in seven straight going over 30 and 40 once.

Just something to keep an eye on. Whoever starts for Dallas tonight at center is in a great spot. Zaza Pachulia is banged up but did participate in shootaround with no setbacks. The Bulls are allowing 27.8 ppg to centers over the last five games and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season making whoever plays tonight cash game viable. The guys to watch for would be Salah Mejri or JaVale McGee. I will not pay for Pachulia tonight but I will pivot to any player who fills in for the minimum if it happens in cash games.