Oh how close we were to another sweep yesterday. Alas, Kevin Durant made one last field goal, and in the process went over his point total. Domantas Sabonis earned 14 rebounds, covering the hook by exactly 0.5. That is how dialed in the sportsbooks are. One field goal, and one rebound over the betting line– Impressive. 

Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets did win the John Collins rebounding line, with plenty of room to spare. Today is a new day, and the last day of the betting week. Three Meat Loaf days and a sweep is a good week, but a sweep today would be a great week– and that is the goal. 



JALEN DUREN OVER 11.5 REBOUNDS (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Welcome back Jalen Duren, and at even odds too. The young man was on a hot streak prior to the All-Star break, then his rebounding became inconsistent. Duren and the Detroit Pistons host the New Orleans Pelicans at Little Caesars Arena. This is the first game today, beginning at 3:00 PM ET, and the Pelicans are expected to dominate. There is a -12.5 spread in favor of the visiting team, but that has little to do with Duren’s rebounding line.

Duren has averaged 11.9 rebounds per game this season, and has double-digit rebounds in eight games in March. He will be matched up against the veteran Jonas Valanciunas who is a fantastic rebounder for the first quarter. Valanciunas has played 10 games this month, but played over 21 minutes in just two of those games. He will likely play around 20 this game, leaving the potential for 28 minutes that Duren plays against back up Larry Nance Jr.

The Pelicans are also without Brandon Ingram and his 5.1 rebounds per game. That may not seem like a lot, but he is a 6’ 8” forward, who helped block out. Those vacated rebounds could go to Duren, who will be the tallest player on the floor when Valanciunas is out. Although he is listed as questionable, he took the last game off and has a favorable matchup against New Orleans.

The Pelicans give up the 10th-most rebounds to opposing centers, and if Duren plays 27 or more minutes he should earn his average against a less-than-average rebounding front-court. If he does not play, it’s a push and we get our money back.



Damian Lillard has been cooking lately with three straight games with over 30 points. While everyone is discussing how few whistles have been called since the All-Star break, and the lack of points due to it, Lillard has been scoring more. He has six games with 28 or more points this month. He has missed only two of 51 free throws this March, and made 41 three-point attempts as well. Doc Rivers is getting the most out of Lillard, and making Milwaukee’s success more about Lillard’s efficiency than about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s strength.

The Thunder are a middle of the pack defense against point guards, and allow an average of 112.9 points per game. Lillard is averaging 24.6 points per game, and he has covered this prop in three of his last four home games. Lillard will not be able to take his foot off of the gas with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming into town. It could be a showdown of elite guards, but Lillard will have to score for the Bucks to win this game. As it currently sits Milwaukee is 2.5 point favorites.

PASCAL SIAKAM OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What more can be said about this bet? It has been as reliable as a basketball bouncing. It has been successful the last four times mentioned in this column. Siakam has eight or more rebounds in six straight games, and eight of his last 10 games. That is an 80% success rate which is rare to find in the betting world.

Yet the sportsbooks do not move off of the line, in fact they gave us near even odds today! Yeah he has a tougher game against the Lakers, but not that much tougher. Anthony Davis picks and chooses the games he wants to play at his best, and the Lakers are not playing great basketball. In addition to that, the Pacers offense is starting to go through Siakam.

He has 50 points, 10 assists, and 24 rebounds in his last two games. Head Coach Rick Carlisle is utilizing Siakam to exploit mismatches in opponents. Try to put a big on him and he moves his game out, if a team uses a smaller forward he uses his length with rebounding and put backs. This has become more evident this month, and Siakam is playing more minutes. He has 27 minutes or more in every game this month but two, and one of those games was four seconds short of 27 minutes. 

The Lakers do have size, but they are lazy at times. If the Lakers attempt to play with the pace of the Pacers (pun intended), there will be several missed field goal attempts – which in turn will lead to more rebounding opportunities. This is another reason Siakam has been rebounding so well, teams are forced to play at the Pacers speed and it creates a larger volume of field goal attempts. Yet the sportsbooks are not picking up on it. Advantage Fantasy Alarm. Trust Siakam to play 30+ minutes in the first of back-to-back games in Los Angeles, and deliver his fifth straight win for this column.


Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise.