Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets delivers its first sweep in over a month. It happened on a day with a bonus bet, so a true four-bet sweep over the sportsbooks took place. Two plus-odd wagers, one on New Orleans (who absolutely destroyed the Heat) and the other on James Harden, who earned his last assist in the final seconds of his playing time. 

Pascal Siakam doubled his required rebounds, as ‘the well’ delivered again. Victor Wembanyama stacked more units, and cleared his rebounding line in the third quarter. Yesterday was a day that fully restores confidence… but yesterday's success has nothing to do with today’s bets.

Today there are eight games in the Association, beginning at 1 PM ET with a ‘subway special’ as the Brooklyn Nets play the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. It ends with a Northwest Division rivalry as the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers collide at 10:00 PM ET. It is the games in-between that have Fantasy Alarm’s attention though. Yesterday was a day thinking about the over, today we live in the land down under with three player props… two at plus odds. 



If you are going to bet against the best rebounder of the past two years, there better be good data to support it. That is just the case as Domantas Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings play the Orlando Magic at the Kia Center. D. Sabonis is the leading rebounder and has been on a tear this month. This March he has recorded 181 rebounds in eleven games, an average of 16.45 per game. That is truly remarkable. 

Tonight against the Magic, it could be a different story. Although he has only recorded less than 14 rebounds once this month, the Magic are tough rebounders. Orlando allows the fewest rebounds to opposing teams this season with 48.1 per game. They have held opponents to an incredibly low 40.3 per game in their last three games. The Magic are even tougher at home allowing only 45.7 rebounds per game. 

The odds on Sabonis' under 13.5 rebounds were +130 last night, moved to +115/+110, and are now even and negative on some sportsbooks. The sharks have moved in, and it would be wise for you too as well. The Magic have won five in a row, and are only three games from second place in the Eastern Conference. 

Sabonis will be bodied, boxed out, and defended on every field goal attempt. The Magic will look to control the pace of the game, limiting his rebounding opportunities. Look for the rare under to come through on D. Sabonis’ rebounds tonight.


KEVIN DURANT UNDER 23.5 POINTS (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kevin Durant has been playing several minutes, in fact he has played over thirty-four minutes in every game this month (11). The odd part is in those 11 games he has only attempted over 20 field goal attempts twice. He has not scored over 23 points in five straight games, and that should continue tonight. The math is simply not adding up even against the San Antonio Spurs who are not a great defensive team.

The Spurs do allow 119.4 points per game, but the Phoenix Suns only score 117.1 points per game. K. Durant does not have more than six assists this month, and it’s not like he is giving up the ball for teammates to score more. He is just watching Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Grayson Allen score more since the All-Star break. 

Booker is set to be the highest scorer with a 25.5-point line, while Bradley Beal has a point line of 16.5. They could score over that if they have the ball in their hands throughout the game. Durant has experienced one of his healthiest seasons, and this has led to a high minute count. If Phoenix is winning in a blowout against the Spurs (who are playing the second of back-to-back games), Durant could sit out the fourth quarter. This would be another scenario that this bet would cash.

There are several scenarios for the under to be successful and as long as Durant does not earn double-digit free throw points, this should be a successful plus odds prop.

JOHN COLLINS UNDER 9.5 REBOUNDS (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The final under for the day comes in the Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets game, beginning at 8:00 PM ET. John Collins is experiencing a good statistical season, and has been the consistent player on a team plagued by injuries this season. However, John Collins recently sustained an injury himself, in the most famous was it or was it not a dunk of all time… Anthony Edwards posterized him earlier this week. 

Collins received a facial contusion and his minutes have been restricted since then. He has played less than 24 minutes in his last two games. Collins does have a favorable match against the Rockets, but the Rockets have been playing extremely well lately. Houston has the longest winning streak in the Western Conference with seven. They have allowed the tenth fewest rebounds over their last three games, with a 49.3 per game. The Rockets are only two games out of the play-in after many counted them out.

Collins has only covered this game three times this month, and he is listed as questionable tonight but expected to play. If his minutes are restricted it is almost guaranteed to be under. If he plays less than 30 minutes there is also a good chance this bet is successful. Also, if he gets his average this bet is successful, as he averages 8.5 per game. Utah could be blown out by the third quarter and the Jazz could bench him the remainder of the game. There are a few scenarios to which this bet can be successful, and we look for Houston to control the boards tonight.


Thanks for reading my NBA best bets today! Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise.