How about the Super Bowl? An amazing game going down to the last few seconds of overtime. The better team came out on top, and the Kansas City Chiefs fulfilled their destiny by becoming a dynasty. 

Now it’s time for Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets to fulfill its destiny and get to forty units gained on the season. Starting today, the NBA will take center stage in the sports entertainment world. There are ten games today, one nationally televised, with the Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz on NBATV beginning at 9:00 PM ET. There is a game which features two of the most bet on players for this column, the San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors, and yes there will be a prop bet on one of our favorites. 

The two worst rebounding teams in the league square off in the Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks. The bookies have wisely not given many rebounding props, but there is a point prop worth a wager. The best Eastern versus Western Conference game today is the Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, and it is in this match the Bet of the Night takes place.

 

Expert NBA Best Bet Today, 2/12

Jamal Murray Player Props: Over 2.5 Threes Made (-110 at BetMGM)

Jamal Murray has been on a hot streak of cashing the over on his three points made, as well as his assists. He has been very active with the ball in his hands and been a large part of the Nuggets success this month. Tonight, the Denver Nuggets play at the Fiserv Forum against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Bucks are third in the Eastern Conference and the Nuggets tied for second in the Western Conference. It should be a battle with a mere one point spread and 231.5 point total. This is a game Jamal Murray will be asked to score points in addition to being the leader of the offense. 

The Bucks have a large front court and if Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing defense with tenacity, it becomes difficult for guards to score. Not to worry as Murray has the range to keep up with the best scorers in this league. He has made ninety-six three point attempts this season and has a three point percentage of 41.2% from behind the arc. 

Murray has covered this prop in three of his last four games, and has thirty-five three point attempts in his last four games. Milwaukee allows the second most points to opposing point guards, allows over twelve three point attempts made per game, and does not have the defensive back court to keep Murray contained. 

Murray over 22.5 points is on the radar, but has been juiced up to -165 on some sportsbooks. The angle on his threes made seems to be the better play at near even odds. Trust the NBA Champion to deliver from behind the arc against Damian Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks.

 

NBA Predictions & Player Props Today, 2/12

Luka Doncic Player Props: Over 31.5 Points (-160 at BetMGM)

Luka Doncic has been a man on fire lately. He is averaging 34.5 points per game which is the second most in the Association. The Mavericks have won four in a row and are only one game back from fifth place. Doncic has been a major catalyst to his team’s recent success and the Dallas Mavericks host the Washington Wizards tonight. 

The Wizards have lost six in a row, while the Mavericks have won four in a row. Both of these teams allow the most rebounds to opposing teams, but it’s the point line we are interested in tonight. The Mavericks beefed up around the trade deadline by adding Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington, and this has improved their thin front court already. 

Meanwhile, Doncic has been scoring regardless of the front court, if Kyrie Irving is playing, or the opponent across from him. He has covered this prop in four of his five games this month (the only one he didn’t was the blowout win versus the Philadelphia 76ers), and he has thirty-two or more points in nine of his last eleven games. Doncic could be the points champion this year, as he currently has 1,553 points, third most in the NBA. 

To win the title of scoring champion, he cannot let up and continue to outpace Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Part of doing that is destroying the team that allows the tenth most points to opposing point guards, and Doncic should put on a show tonight. Put the unit on the Slovenian tonight. 

 

Victor Wembanyama Player Props: Under 10.5 Rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)

Victor Wembanyama is back on the column after disappointing us Saturday, and not allowing ‘Meat Loaf’ for the day. Something appears to be up with his rebounding effort and he did not have any until the second quarter of the last game. Wembanyama has had a combined five rebounds in the past two games, and it is not certain if Head Coach Greg Popovich is utilizing him differently, there is a small injury affecting Wembanyama, or if he is simply experiencing fatigue approaching the All-Star break. 

Tonight is the Spurs' fourth road game in six days, and they have not won the three previous games. The rookie could simply be tired, as that is going to happen to anyone, much less someone who is 7’ 4”. His rebounding average has dipped to an even ten per game on the season, and his rebounding line is still at 10.5 across most sportsbooks. The Spurs play the Toronto Raptors tonight, and the Raptors have been improving their rebounding. The return of Jakob Poeltl has helped immensely, but Scottie Barnes is also back to a double-double machine. 

Barnes was an automatic bet for his under, but has covered in back-to-back games, and tonight we will be watching his effort to see if Barnes can be a reliable bet. Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets has taken the over and under on Wembanyama’s rebounding and point line and tonight is a night we ride the under at positive odds. 

 

Thanks for reading. Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs across multiple sports. 

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise