As delicious as the Meatloaf has been the past three days, the leftovers are officially cleared out with a surprising day across the Association yesterday. Not one higher-ranked team won the first game of the Conference Semifinals, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have lost both home games to begin the series.

The Cavaliers somehow crushed our first quarter pick of Indiana +3.5, as the Cavaliers outscored the Indiana Pacers by 17 points. Yet they somehow managed to lose the game, and it appears as though Donovan Mitchell will be unable to get past the second round once again.

The Golden State Warriors gave the Minnesota Timberwolves the little brother treatment, as big brother bullied them the entire game. Anthony Edwards had only 1 point after 29 minutes of the game, and Minnesota only scored 31 in the first half! That is over 2.25 quarters of basketball that Edwards was held in check, and he was the Timberwolves' leading scorer!

Needless to say, the Timberwolves team total of over 108.5 was not achieved, nor was the same game parlay requiring the Timberwolves to win. As devastating as yesterday was, a bettor is always focused on the day at hand.

 

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/7

After spitting the bad taste of yesterday’s bets out, we return in our quest for at least Meatloaf, but preferably a sweep. Today’s first NBA best bet looks to start the night in the right direction.

Knicks vs Celtics Prediction: Kristaps Porzingis Under 16.5 Points (-114 on FanDuel) *BET OF THE NIGHT 

The Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks at TD Garden, with a 7:30 PM ET tipoff. It has become a crucial game for the Celtics, who are down 0 - 1 against their rival. The centers for both teams were lackluster, as Mitchell Robinson was fouled the moment he had the ball but was unable to make his free throws (3 of 10). And Karl-Anthony Towns only scored 14 points despite playing 31 minutes. To his credit, he did record 13 rebounds, which is a good rebounding performance. Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford combined for seven points, which is quite terrible, and makes Robinson and Towns’ stats look otherworldly. 

The Knicks won game one with a ferocious come-from-behind second half. Kristaps Porzingis was only able to play 13 minutes in that match and has been severely limited over the past two weeks. In the Celtics' last three games, he has played minute totals of 13, 21, and 22. 

He has been dealing with an illness that has really brought down his performance, but he is listed as probable tonight. Although he averaged 19.5 points per game in the regular season, his point line is set at 16.5 today, and the under is the suggested wager. Porzingis is not himself and will not be the offensive focal point for the Celtics.

Porzingis could be limited in minutes once again, but Horford did play 34 minutes in game one. It may not be a concern as Horford has played 30 or more minutes in all but game one against the Orlando Magic, often between 33 - 35 minutes. Porzingis is a great three-point scorer, and Boston demonstrated their commitment to the three with 19 of their 20 third-quarter attempts coming from behind the arc. That is the only real threat to this best bet, and it seems unlikely that he would immediately return to his pre-illness form.

Put a unit on Porzingis to score less than 16.5 points on FanDuel. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will have much better offensive performances, and will have a desire to keep the ball in their hands after a letdown in the second half. For those new to FanDuel, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer.

 

 

 

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: DEN +9.0  (+100 on BET365)

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets at the Paycom Center with a 9:30 PM ET tip-off time. The Thunder looked great in game one, but the Nuggets looked better. Propelled by Nikola Jokic’s 42-point, 22-rebound game, Denver was able to win game one. The question becomes, can they do it again?

The sportsbooks do not believe so. The spread was at -11.5 in favor of Oklahoma, but the money rushed in on a ridiculously high spread, and has forced it down to -10.0. Denver’s teased up spread of +9.0 was +120, but has moved to +100 on Bet365. Still, at even odds, it is worth a risk to tease up the spread.

This column accurately predicted the upset win for Denver in game one, and there is still a hunch that they could win game two. However, taking a huge spread after the Nuggets proved capable of winning is the wise move. The Nuggets have lost by more than 9 points just once in their last twelve games. 

This is a championship team peaking at the right moment. Although the national media is focused on the Interstate 95 battle between New York and Boston, the Denver Nuggets are quietly setting themselves up for a return to the NBA Finals. This match ultimately comes down to the frontcourt, and the Nuggets have the better frontcourt. That is no fault of the Thunder, as  Jokic and Aaron Gordon are better than any frontcourt in the Association.

Denver will control the rebounding of this match, and thus control the spread. Put a unit on this plus odd best bet at Bet365, and make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this column.

 

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/7

The last NBA best bet today is a player prop from a proven playoff scorer.

Prediction: Jamal Murray Over 20.5 Points (-105 on BETMGM) 

Jamal Murray had a dismal scoring night in game one, successfully making just 6 of 16 field goals. Most of those came in the first quarter, too. Despite that, he earned 21 points in game one, but it could have been much more due to the fact he played 44 minutes. 

Nikola Jokic was an unstoppable force, though, and Murray became a passer, playmaker, and rebounder. Tonight, he should resort back to being an elite scorer. Although he played more minutes than anyone on the court in game one, he knows when he must step up his performance. 

Murray has scored 21 or more points in six of his eight playoff matches this postseason. It’s ludicrous that his line is set at 20.5 in a game in which he will be asked to attempt more field goals. Put a unit on this near-even best bet at BETMGM, and for new customers, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer for up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

 

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise

 

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