Meatloaf on back-to-back days. Sometimes leftovers are more delicious than the original dish. As Fantasy Alarm mentioned the Indiana Pacers had a great chance to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, and they did. They easily covered the +8.0 spread which was the lead best bet yesterday. They in part covered the spread due to Andrew Nembhard’s amazing offensive night, which was also predicted. He covered the 12.5 point line by 10 points and continued his incredible playoff production.

The Houston Rockets lost to the Golden State Warriors, in what was a defensive battle from both teams. The Warriors willed their way to another crucial victory, and surprisingly it was Buddy Hield who was the savior of their season. In the process the Rockets did not cover their -2.5 spread, which was the only loss yesterday. Just under a unit was won, and we look to add to the bankroll today.

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/5

The NBA has officially cleared the first round of the NBA playoffs. There are only eight teams remaining, four from each conference. Two first round matches start today and the first NBA best bet comes from the first match of the night.

Knicks vs Celtics Prediction: Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110 on BETMGM) *BET OF THE NIGHT 

The defending champion Boston Celtics are well rested for their rival, the New York Knicks. Game one begins at TD Garden in Boston and the arena will be rocking. The Celtics are -9.5 point favorites on the spread, and the total is set at 212.5 points, with -390 odds on their moneyline.

Although Jayson Tatum missed a game in the first round, he played well after returning, and should continue to be the best player on their team. He recorded eight or more rebounds in each of the four games he played against the Orlando Magic. He earned 14 in two matches, and has been aggressive in his pursuit of missed field goals.

Although Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are excellent rebounders for the Knicks, Tatum is the best rebounder for the Celtics. The total projects a low scoring game, implying several missed field goals. This should benefit this proposition with more rebounding opportunities for Tatum.

He averaged 8.7 rebounds per game in the season, and has averaged 11.25 rebounds per game during the playoffs. Trust him to get over 9.5 rebounds against a team that had to play six games to advance to the next round. Tatum is stronger than the Knicks backcourt, and big enough to bang with the Knicks’ frontcourt.

Put a unit on the plus odds prop at BETMGM, and remember to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for up to $1,500 in bonus bets. 

 

 

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points (-120 on Bet365 )

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should receive the NBA MVP trophy in this series, and he will be counted on to be an MVP if this series is to go the Oklahoma City Thunder’s way. Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite scorer and the Thunder will rely on him to remain one during this series against the Denver Nuggets.

Although some were critical of his performance in the first round, the truth is he was not needed to win games against the Memphis Grizzlies, until game four. In that match he scored 38 points making 13 of 24 field goal attempts, and was responsible for ending the Grizzlies season. However he wasn’t bad in the other games, in the four games of the first round his lowest point total was 15.

Gilgeous-Alexander has scored over 32.5 points in just one game of the 2025 playoffs. Yet the sportsbooks have his regular season average (32.7) set for his point proposition. The Nuggets were not the best defensive team in the regular season, but have improved since the removal of Michael Malone. 

The real question for this proposition’s success is how will the game be officiated? In the regular season Gilgeous-Alexander led the league in free throws made per game, 7.9. He averaged almost 11 free throws per game. He is averaging 8.8 free throws per game in the playoffs, and his free throw percentage is 90.9%, which is second best in the playoffs. 

Regardless of how the whistle blows, 33 points is a lot to ask for a player that will be double teamed, pressured, and if the playoff trend continues he will attempt less free throws. Put a unit on this NBA best bet at Bet365 and make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this article.

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/5

The last best bet of today could be considered a risk, but it is one with reasoning. And the return on investment is worth the risk

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction: Denver Moneyline (+330 on FanDuel) 

Just as we predicted the Indiana Pacers to have a great game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Nuggets will have a great game against the Thunder. The spread for Denver is currently  +9.5, which is one more point than the Pacers were given. This is a divisional battle and +9.5 seems ridiculous for how good the Nuggets have been offensively. To those that do not like the moneyline the spread seems like a safe wager with 57% of the money on the Nuggets to cover.

For those that do want to follow this best bet, there is logic behind this wager, Oklahoma City and Denver split 2 - 2 in the regular season. One of the Nuggets victories was at the Paycom Center, and they have proven they can beat the Thunder at their arena. One of the Thunder’s wins was the first game of the season, which is literally a full season away. The Nuggets basketball philosophy has changed, their depth has improved, and they are in a rhythm of playing every other day. The Thunder have not played since April 26th.

Another valid point is in Denver’s first win against the Thunder, Russell Westbrook was the leading scorer with 29 points. Nikola Jokic did have 20 rebounds and 16 assists in that match but Westbrook was the driving force. Westbrook is returning to an arena he knows well, and there is an argument to be made that his success while there is the reason the Thunder franchise were financially successful in their relocation.

Westbrook has already knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs while he was with the Houston Rockets in the 2020 playoffs. However all of those games took place in Florida, this will be his first game as an opponent in Oklahoma, and his first playoff game in general since the 2019 first round loss against the Portland Trail Blazers. He will be amped, and he will be an X-factor, as he has been throughout the 2025 playoffs. 

The Nuggets have a much more dominant front court that will be difficult to stop, and paired with Westbrook’s aggressive play could present issues for the Thunder’s defense. Put a unit on the Nuggets to keep their moment rolling as their starters didn’t play the second half of the fourth quarter. In fact Jokic played the least amount of minutes of the series, and game seven was an afternoon game.

For those new to FanDuel make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer to earn bonus bets.

 

 

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Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All NBA odds accurate at time of writing and NBA best bets today to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise

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