Wednesday's NBA slate tips off with three 7 p.m. ET games and runs through Thunder vs. Mavericks at 9:30 p.m., and our NBA best bets include three sides, a same-game parlay and a full card of player props.

Injuries are shaping tonight's board in a big way. Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards as he prepares for knee surgery that could sideline him up to two months, Houston will play without Alperen Sengun, and Detroit is still missing All-NBA center Jalen Duren. Those absences have moved spreads and opened up new roles, and that's exactly where we're looking for value in our NBA picks today.

We're backing a Philadelphia team the market keeps moving toward, a Hawks team at home against a winless Miami squad, and a Mavericks team getting nearly a touchdown against Oklahoma City. On the prop side, we're targeting players stepping into bigger roles, from Naz Reid in Charlotte to Ayo Dosunmu in Minnesota. New to Rebet Sportsbook? You can grab $100 in bonus bets when you sign up and put it to work on tonight's NBA predictions.

 

 

 

NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/28

Our NBA best bets for Wednesday are the 76ers -3.5 in Indiana, the Hawks -2.5 against Miami and the Mavericks +6.5 against Oklahoma City, plus a 76ers same-game parlay at +340. On the prop side, we're featuring Joel Embiid Over 22.5 points and Naz Reid Over 17.5 points, with more player props listed below.

Injury news is driving several of Wednesday's numbers, so check the final reports and shop around before you bet. Here's our full breakdown of today's NBA best bets.

76ers vs. Pacers Prediction: Wednesday, 10/28

  • Pick: 76ers -3.5 (alt line)

Philadelphia opened as a 1.5-point favorite in Indianapolis, and the market has pushed the line all the way to -5.5, with roughly 81% of the public on the Sixers. Taking the alternate -3.5 gives us two extra points of cushion on a team the market clearly believes in.

The 76ers are 3-1 and have multiple ways to close games, with Joel Embiid in the post, Tyrese Maxey's speed, Jaylen Brown's midrange game and LeBron James running pick-and-roll. Philadelphia has also won its last five meetings with Indiana.

Indiana is also banged up. Starting center Ivica Zubac is out, and Tyrese Haliburton is questionable, which would leave the Pacers without their top interior defender and possibly their lead playmaker. Without Zubac, Indiana has no one with the size to handle Embiid in the post, and if Haliburton sits or is limited, the Pacers lose the engine of an offense that has averaged 116.5 points per game. We like Philadelphia's healthier roster and late-game shot creation to make the difference in a game with a total around 236.5. 76ers -3.5 is our first of Wednesday's NBA best bets.

76ers vs. Pacers Same Game Parlay: Wednesday, 10/28

If you like Philadelphia to cover, this parlay builds on the same logic. When the 76ers win by four or more, it's usually because their stars carried the load, and this ticket ties the spread to the three players most likely to make that happen.

Embiid is the anchor, and Ivica Zubac's absence makes his leg even more attractive. He's scored 24 and 28 points in his last two games and is making 7.3 free throws per game, so 20 points is a lower bar than his player prop. Maxey gives Philadelphia speed in a game with a total around 236.5, and LeBron's 12 rebounds plus assists leg rewards his role as a secondary playmaker running pick-and-roll.

Every leg points in the same direction: a fast game in which Philadelphia's top three players control the action. At +340, it's a higher-risk, higher-reward way to play the 76ers on Wednesday.

Heat vs. Hawks Prediction: Wednesday, 10/28

  • Pick: Hawks -2.5

Miami is 0-4 and still searching for answers even after adding Giannis Antetokounmpo. Their perimeter defense has been a problem from the opener, when Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball combined for 14 three-pointers.

Atlanta is 2-2, with both losses coming against an unbeaten Houston team, and the Hawks have a deep, balanced rotation that includes Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker Dyson Daniels and Aaron Wiggins, who has been one of the league's best bench scorers to start the season.

At home and laying only 2.5 points, we'll back the healthier, more cohesive team. Hawks -2.5 is our pick.

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction: Wednesday, 10/28

  • Pick: Mavericks +6.5

Oklahoma City is elite defensively, and Thunder games have averaged just 212 total points this season. That low-scoring profile makes every point on the spread more valuable, and +6.5 gives Dallas plenty of room.

The bigger story is who Oklahoma City won't have. The Thunder were already without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace for extended stretches, and now Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are also out Wednesday. That's four rotation regulars, including two of the league's best defenders in Holmgren and Caruso, and even an unbeaten 4-0 record can't hide how thin the rotation has become around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Dallas, meanwhile, has its franchise player back and playing like one of the 10 best players in the league. Cooper Flagg missed one game after spraining his left shoulder in Indiana, then returned Monday in Miami and took over: 29 points, a career-high-tying 11 assists, six rebounds, five steals and three blocks in 40 minutes. He scored 12 of his points in the fourth quarter and sealed the 113-109 win by blocking Andrew Wiggins' go-ahead three with 31 seconds left.

Head coach Dusty May came away convinced the playmaking is just getting started, saying Flagg is "gonna have some 15, 20 assist games." The Mavericks assisted on 31 of their 43 baskets in Miami, and with Kyrie Irving, P.J. Washington and Walter Clayton all contributing, Dallas finally has the healthier, deeper roster in this matchup.

The line sits between +5.5 and +6.5 across most books, so grab the 6.5 if you can find it. Mavericks +6.5 rounds out the sides among our NBA best bets.

 

 

Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/28

Joel Embiid Over 22.5 Points: Embiid has scored 24 and 28 points in his last two games after a 13-point opener, and he's averaging 21.7 points this season. He's made 7.3 free throws per game, including 12-of-14 against Milwaukee on Saturday, which gives him one of the highest scoring floors in the league.

Indiana will be without starting center Ivica Zubac, and Tyrese Haliburton is questionable. With no true center to match up with Embiid and a total around 236.5, he should have plenty of chances to work in the post and get to the line.

Naz Reid Over 17.5 Points: Reid has scored 20, 17, 23 and 18 points in his four games with Charlotte, averaging 19.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in 30.8 minutes. He's shooting 41.2% from three on more than eight attempts per game.

Detroit is without center Jalen Duren, so Reid should have room to work inside and pull the Pistons' backup bigs out to the perimeter.

More player props we like on Wednesday's slate:

  • Fred VanVleet Over 6.5 Assists: VanVleet is averaging 7.0 assists with just two turnovers in three games, including 11 on opening night, and Alperen Sengun's absence removes a center who has been averaging 7.0 assists per game.
  • Moussa Diabate Over 9.5 Rebounds: Diabate is averaging 9.5 rebounds and grabbed 17 in 35 minutes Monday, and Detroit is missing Jalen Duren on the glass.
  • Ayo Dosunmu Over 16.5 Points: Dosunmu moves into the starting lineup with Anthony Edwards out and averaged 21.8 points in last season's first-round series when Edwards missed time.

 

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Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new NBA best bets, picks and predictions all season long.