Kalshi Prediction Market NBA Picks Today: Best Predictions For Friday, 2/20

The NBA’s post-All-Star break action continues tonight, Friday, February 20, 2026, with a nine-game slate that offers several clear "mispriced" opportunities on the Kalshi prediction markets. With significant injury reports rolling in for the Jazz, Pelicans, and Cavaliers, the board is shifting rapidly. Using our advanced metrics and the latest rotation news, we’ve broken down the best ways to play today's board.

Beat the fast-paced basketball market using our Data Edge Picks and verified Expert Picks to navigate daily rotation changes. Find soft lines on player stats instantly with the Prop Finder and Odds Finder. Stay ahead of the books by tracking situational spots and streaks with our comprehensive Betting Trends.

Top Kalshi Prediction Market NBA Picks for Today

Cleveland Cavaliers to Win (at Charlotte Hornets) — Yes (69¢)

The Cavaliers enter the Spectrum Center looking to extend their dominant winning streak. Although Evan Mobley has been ruled out for tonight's contest, Cleveland’s rotation remains elite, led by the high-scoring duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. The Cavs have proven they can win without Mobley anchoring the paint, averaging 123 points over their last ten games. At 69¢, you are backing one of the hottest teams in the East against a Charlotte squad that lacks the defensive depth to slow down Cleveland's balanced offensive attack.

Best Value Plays on the Kalshi Prediction Market Board

Miami Heat to Win (at Atlanta Hawks) — Yes (58¢)

The narrative tonight in Atlanta is the long-awaited return of Tyler Herro. After missing a significant stretch, Herro is listed as probable and ready to rejoin a Heat squad currently fighting for playoff positioning. Atlanta is on a back-to-back and facing a Miami team that is finally nearing full strength. With Bam Adebayo dominating the glass and Herro providing much-needed spacing, the Heat at 58¢ represents a significant value gap against a tired Hawks defense that has struggled to maintain consistency.

High-Confidence NBA Predictions Based on Recent Performance

Memphis Grizzlies to Win (vs. Utah Jazz) — Yes (54¢)

The Utah Jazz are traveling to Memphis with a roster that has been completely gutted. Utah has officially ruled out Jaren Jackson (knee), Jusuf Nurkic (nose), and Keyonte George (ankle), while star forward Lauri Markkanen is currently questionable with an illness. Without their primary interior anchors and playmakers, the Jazz are extremely vulnerable. On the Memphis side, look for Ty Jerome to continue his incredible breakout season; Jerome has provided a massive scoring punch lately, averaging nearly 20 PPG to fill the backcourt void. His high-volume efficiency makes this 54¢ contract a high-confidence anchor.

Riskier Picks with High Upside Tonight

Milwaukee Bucks to Win (at New Orleans Pelicans) — Yes (40¢)

This is the ultimate "buy the dip" spot. The market has crashed on Milwaukee because Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Myles Turner (calf) are both out. However, the Pelicans are now officially without leading scorer Trey Murphy (shoulder). At 40¢, you are getting a Bucks team with a championship pedigree against a New Orleans squad missing its primary wing threat. Without Murphy to stretch the floor, the Pelicans' offense becomes much easier to contain, giving the Bucks a clear path to a high-value upset.

How to Approach Kalshi Prediction Markets for NBA Slates

• The "Questionable" Pivot: Always monitor status for players like Lauri Markkanen up until tip-off. If a "Questionable" star is eventually ruled out, the price of the opposing team (Memphis) will likely jump significantly before the market fully settles.
• Identify Breakout Fill-ins: The market often focuses on who is out, failing to account for players like Ty Jerome who have proven they can maintain a team's offensive floor during injury stretches.
• Fading Shorthanded Favorites: When a team like New Orleans loses its best shooter (Murphy), their win probability drops significantly. Taking the Bucks at 40¢ allows you to profit on the market's over-adjustment to Milwaukee's own injury report.