Welcome back from our week off for Father’s Day weekend, I hope you all enjoyed it. Now to this week’s venue, Sonoma Raceway. The venue is different than any other that gets used in the schedule as it’s a road course, and I know there is another road course on the schedule in Watkins Glenn, but that course is a much different kind of course than Sonoma is. The Napa Valley track, that sits on Sears Point, is a highly technical layout that uses 10 turns to keep speeds down and make it reasonably tough to pass in the race. Whereas Watkins Glenn is a more high-speed layout with fewer turns and far less elevation change.
Sonoma Raceway has multiple layouts, and a drag strip in the middle of it, but NASCAR uses a 1.99-mile layout for their races instead of the full 2.52-mile layout. The final turn of the NASCAR layout is a hairpin 180 degree turn that has allowed for late passes in the last few races as one driver doesn’t hit their braking mark and swings wide. With a 1.99-mile track and 110 laps in the race, there are 218.9 miles total in the race, so where does the 350 number in the race name come from? It’s for the amount of kilometers in the race. 350 Km multiplied by .621 (the amount of miles in a Km) gets you 217 miles, hence the number in the race.
With the short number of laps, and the reasonably tough passing conditions, the bonus points of laps led and position differential should be kept to a low level this week. Last year only one driver broke 60 points in the DK scoring system and only four broke 50 in the FD system.
The low-scoring being stated, only three of the last 10 winners have started in the top-five and six of the other seven have started in the double-digits, including one who started P30. However prior to this most recent 10-race sample, from June 2005 through June 1992 every winner came from the top-10 and five of the 14 won from the pole.
Track Breakdown
Last Four Races at Sonoma Raceway
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Kevin Harvick | 4 | 15 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 50 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
Clint Bowyer | 4 | 15.5 | 18.8 | 13.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Joey Logano | 4 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Denny Hamlin | 4 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 44 |
Kurt Busch | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
Jamie McMurray | 4 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Paul Menard | 4 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 11.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Brad Keselowski | 4 | 14.5 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 9 | 17.5 | 24.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
Kasey Kahne | 4 | 24 | 15.5 | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 18.5 | 9 | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 58 |
Ryan Newman | 4 | 15 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Chase Elliott | 2 | 12 | 17 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ryan Blaney | 2 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kyle Larson | 4 | 3.3 | 13 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 2.5 | 15.5 | 30.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 60 |
Michael McDowell | 4 | 21.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Aric Almirola | 3 | 27.7 | 22.7 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Austin Dillon | 4 | 26.5 | 20 | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Chris Buescher | 2 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 28.3 | 26.5 | 28.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Daniel Suarez | 1 | 11 | 21 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cole Whitt | 4 | 31.3 | 26.5 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Ragan | 4 | 24.5 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trevor Bayne | 3 | 28 | 27.3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 3 | 30 | 28.7 | 27.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alex Bowman | 2 | 39.5 | 34 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erik Jones | 1 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ty Dillon | 1 | 35 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Justin Marks | 1 | 35 | 35 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tomy Drissi | 1 | 43 | 40 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bubba Wallace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Cook | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cody Ware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Parker Kligerman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
William Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | 0 | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
Kevin Harvick | 33 | 83% | 440 | 110.8 | 132 | 100 | 7.20 | 3.13 | 21.2 | 10.8 |
Kyle Busch | 5 | 67% | 440 | 96.8 | 118.2 | 60.4 | 1.30 | 1.38 | 21.4 | 36.4 |
Clint Bowyer | 8 | 49% | 335 | 79.8 | 112.3 | 25.3 | 1.70 | 0.56 | 32.5 | 54.5 |
Joey Logano | 4 | 63% | 440 | 87.9 | 99.7 | 76.1 | 4.50 | 0.19 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
Denny Hamlin | 17 | 62% | 440 | 90 | 122.3 | 63.2 | 0.30 | 2.75 | 32.3 | 26.8 |
Kurt Busch | 32 | 84% | 440 | 107.1 | 137.7 | 91.1 | -0.80 | 2.69 | 30.6 | 16 |
Jamie McMurray | 13 | 61% | 440 | 92.9 | 126 | 67 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 33.1 | 25.9 |
Paul Menard | 4 | 50% | 440 | 82 | 93.6 | 69.7 | 5.00 | 0.19 | 11.6 | 12.3 |
Brad Keselowski | 11 | 48% | 440 | 79.8 | 110.9 | 58.2 | -0.30 | 1.06 | 31.1 | 21.6 |
Martin Truex Jr | 39 | 57% | 337 | 92.6 | 124.5 | 58.1 | -15.80 | 1.56 | 31.9 | 34.5 |
Kasey Kahne | 18 | 59% | 439 | 85.9 | 97.8 | 59 | 12.20 | 0.00 | 11.9 | 26.9 |
Jimmie Johnson | 32 | 86% | 440 | 104.8 | 123.5 | 87.7 | 8.70 | 3.63 | 18.7 | 17.1 |
Ryan Newman | 3 | 69% | 440 | 84.6 | 92.1 | 70.7 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 7.5 | 13.9 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 34% | 220 | 76.9 | 86 | 67.7 | -2.50 | 0.00 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
Ryan Blaney | 2 | 41% | 220 | 75 | 86.8 | 63.2 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
Kyle Larson | 12 | 68% | 439 | 82.9 | 98.3 | 61.7 | -17.00 | 0.56 | 15.4 | 21.2 |
AJ Allmendinger | 28 | 63% | 420 | 94.1 | 108.2 | 64.6 | -28.30 | 3.75 | 14.1 | 29.5 |
Michael McDowell | 9 | 11% | 420 | 56.7 | 74.2 | 46.9 | -6.00 | 0.00 | 17.5 | 9.8 |
Aric Almirola | 1 | 14% | 330 | 63.3 | 73 | 55 | 6.40 | 0.00 | 9.7 | 8.3 |
Austin Dillon | 1 | 23% | 440 | 68.1 | 79.7 | 60.8 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 11.6 | 7.3 |
Chris Buescher | 2 | 25% | 220 | 58.9 | 74.4 | 43.3 | -2.00 | 0.50 | 15.5 | 15.6 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 0 | 10% | 359 | 51.2 | 58.9 | 37.7 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 7.7 | 13.5 |
Daniel Suarez | 1 | 25% | 110 | 66.2 | 66.2 | 66.2 | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Cole Whitt | 0 | 8% | 440 | 51.1 | 59.5 | 40.5 | 5.30 | 0.00 | 8.4 | 10.6 |
David Ragan | 1 | 13% | 406 | 46.6 | 74.2 | 34.5 | -10.00 | 0.00 | 27.6 | 12.1 |
Trevor Bayne | 1 | 5% | 329 | 49.9 | 52.8 | 47.7 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 0 | 4% | 329 | 42.8 | 46 | 39 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
Alex Bowman | 0 | 0% | 219 | 40.1 | 44.7 | 35.5 | 9.50 | 0.00 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
Erik Jones | 0 | 7% | 109 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Ty Dillon | 2 | 4% | 109 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Justin Marks | 0 | 0% | 109 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 35.2 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Tomy Drissi | 0 | 0% | 0 | 25.9 | 25.9 | 25.9 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Bubba Wallace | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Chris Cook | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Cody Ware | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
Parker Kligerman | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | |
William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 Races at Sonoma
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Kyle Busch | 10 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 16.3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 110 |
Clint Bowyer | 10 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 82 |
Kurt Busch | 10 | 8.7 | 11 | 11.8 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 137 |
Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 140 |
Kevin Harvick | 10 | 17.6 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 55 |
Kasey Kahne | 10 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 11 | 15.5 | 21.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 92 |
Denny Hamlin | 10 | 13.7 | 17.4 | 21.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 89 |
Joey Logano | 9 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 |
Jamie McMurray | 10 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 12 |
Brad Keselowski | 8 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
Paul Menard | 10 | 18.4 | 20.6 | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Ryan Newman | 10 | 13.4 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
AJ Allmendinger | 9 | 11.7 | 19.3 | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
Chase Elliott | 2 | 12 | 17 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
Kyle Busch | 44 | 57% | 1072 | 90.8 | 147.6 | 38 | -2.60 | 2.75 | 109.6 |
Clint Bowyer | 42 | 61% | 1002 | 93.1 | 142.8 | 25.3 | 4.10 | 2.05 | 117.5 |
Kurt Busch | 75 | 75% | 1106 | 107 | 142.6 | 82.5 | -3.10 | 3.43 | 60.1 |
Jimmie Johnson | 82 | 85% | 1107 | 109 | 148 | 87.7 | 4.30 | 3.50 | 60.3 |
Kevin Harvick | 41 | 67% | 1107 | 94.8 | 132 | 59.8 | 4.80 | 1.38 | 72.2 |
Kasey Kahne | 48 | 66% | 1105 | 91.9 | 132.4 | 52 | 1.40 | 1.03 | 80.4 |
Martin Truex Jr | 79 | 59% | 960 | 93 | 144 | 53.6 | -10.30 | 2.30 | 90.4 |
Denny Hamlin | 42 | 47% | 1075 | 83.3 | 122.3 | 48.1 | -7.40 | 2.23 | 74.2 |
Joey Logano | 11 | 58% | 993 | 83.6 | 99.7 | 46.3 | -0.70 | 0.50 | 53.4 |
Jamie McMurray | 21 | 46% | 1107 | 86 | 126 | 67 | -1.20 | 0.30 | 59 |
Brad Keselowski | 19 | 51% | 874 | 78.8 | 110.9 | 50 | 0.40 | 0.75 | 60.9 |
Paul Menard | 5 | 26% | 1106 | 69.2 | 93.6 | 42.4 | 1.10 | 0.08 | 51.2 |
Ryan Newman | 10 | 54% | 1107 | 81.8 | 94.8 | 65.2 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 29.6 |
AJ Allmendinger | 36 | 50% | 974 | 84.9 | 108.2 | 39 | -10.70 | 1.67 | 69.2 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 34% | 220 | 76.9 | 86 | 67.7 | -2.50 | 0.00 | 18.3 |
Momentum
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
Kevin Harvick | 5 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 123 |
Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | 106.7 |
Kyle Busch | 5 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -7.4 | 114.7 |
Clint Bowyer | 5 | 18.8 | 8.4 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8.8 | 100.7 |
Brad Keselowski | 5 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.4 | 104.9 |
Kyle Larson | 5 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.4 | 103.2 |
Kurt Busch | 5 | 8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -0.6 | 96.7 |
Denny Hamlin | 5 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4.6 | 92.1 |
Joey Logano | 5 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2.6 | 90.6 |
Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 20 | 15 | 12.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7.8 | 82.9 |
Paul Menard | 5 | 16 | 18.6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 74.5 |
Daniel Suarez | 5 | 14.2 | 19 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5.8 | 73 |
Ryan Blaney | 5 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -12.2 | 100.8 |
Aric Almirola | 5 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 89.7 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 13.8 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 89.2 |
Points Changes at Sonoma in 2017
Draft Kings
17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
Brad Keselowski | 67.75 | 39.46 | 28.3 |
Jimmie Johnson | 53.50 | 33.83 | 19.7 |
Denny Hamlin | 55.25 | 40.81 | 14.4 |
Kurt Busch | 50.00 | 36.74 | 13.3 |
Ryan Newman | 34.00 | 22.06 | 11.9 |
Paul Menard | 37.00 | 27.21 | 9.8 |
Michael McDowell | 33.00 | 24.98 | 8.0 |
Clint Bowyer | 54.50 | 46.71 | 7.8 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 25.00 | 21.79 | 3.2 |
Cole Whitt | 31.00 | 28.25 | 2.8 |
Chase Elliott | 38.00 | 36.79 | 1.2 |
Jamie McMurray | 27.25 | 26.21 | 1.0 |
Ty Dillon | 24.00 | 24.24 | -0.2 |
Austin Dillon | 27.50 | 28.17 | -0.7 |
Erik Jones | 24.00 | 26.9 | -2.9 |
Kevin Harvick | 65.50 | 68.57 | -3.1 |
Daniel Suarez | 23.50 | 26.71 | -3.2 |
Trevor Bayne | 15.50 | 19.54 | -4.0 |
Joey Logano | 39.00 | 43.49 | -4.5 |
Ryan Blaney | 33.00 | 38.53 | -5.5 |
Kasey Kahne | 19.50 | 25.29 | -5.8 |
Chris Buescher | 17.00 | 24.45 | -7.5 |
David Ragan | 10.00 | 24.18 | -14.2 |
Kyle Busch | 38.75 | 66.93 | -28.2 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | -10.00 | 26.03 | -36.0 |
Kyle Larson | -2.75 | 42.15 | -44.9 |
AJ Allmendinger | -16.50 | 30.71 | -47.2 |
Martin Truex Jr | -12.75 | 42.62 | -55.4 |
AVG. +/- | 13.7 |
FanDuel
17 Race | 18 Season | FD Pts +/- | |
Driver | Total | Avg FD Pts. | Season AVG |
Brad Keselowski | 60.7 | 53.19 | 7.51 |
Kevin Harvick | 61.9 | 63.70 | -1.80 |
Michael McDowell | 39 | 40.81 | -1.81 |
Denny Hamlin | 54.1 | 57.33 | -3.23 |
Kurt Busch | 50 | 53.96 | -3.96 |
Ryan Newman | 39.5 | 44.15 | -4.65 |
Clint Bowyer | 56.5 | 61.55 | -5.05 |
Jimmie Johnson | 45.7 | 51.38 | -5.68 |
Paul Menard | 43 | 49.06 | -6.06 |
Ryan Blaney | 42 | 50.76 | -8.76 |
Jamie McMurray | 38.1 | 47.71 | -9.61 |
Chase Elliott | 44 | 53.93 | -9.93 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 31 | 43.30 | -12.30 |
Cole Whitt | 35 | 48.10 | -13.10 |
Daniel Suarez | 33.5 | 47.09 | -13.59 |
Austin Dillon | 34.5 | 49.77 | -15.27 |
Chris Buescher | 28.4 | 43.88 | -15.48 |
Kasey Kahne | 26.4 | 43.71 | -17.31 |
Ty Dillon | 27.4 | 45.11 | -17.71 |
Erik Jones | 29.4 | 48.09 | -18.69 |
Joey Logano | 43 | 61.93 | -18.93 |
Kyle Busch | 46.8 | 66.45 | -19.65 |
Trevor Bayne | 23.9 | 45.10 | -21.20 |
David Ragan | 19.4 | 46.16 | -26.76 |
Kyle Larson | 14.3 | 55.22 | -40.92 |
AJ Allmendinger | 1.8 | 50.59 | -48.79 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | -2 | 47.67 | -49.67 |
Martin Truex Jr | -1.9 | 55.59 | -57.49 |
AVG +/- | 16.96 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Driver Values
Draft Kings
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Justin Marks | 8.03 | 37 | Cody Ware | 2.00 |
2 | Kyle Busch | 5.98 | 36 | Ryan Newman | 3.02 |
3 | Kevin Harvick | 5.86 | 35 | Jamie McMurray | 3.45 |
4 | Cole Whitt | 5.33 | 34 | Trevor Bayne | 3.55 |
5 | Clint Bowyer | 5.02 | 33 | Daniel Suarez | 3.56 |
6 | Aric Almirola | 4.89 | 32 | Timmy Hill | 3.70 |
7 | Ryan Blaney | 4.59 | 31 | Erik Jones | 3.74 |
8 | Joey Logano | 4.58 | 30 | Bubba Wallace | 3.76 |
9 | Parker Kligerman | 4.49 | 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 3.77 |
10 | Denny Hamlin | 4.48 | 28 | Jimmie Johnson | 3.80 |
FanDuel
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
1 | Parker Kligerman | 11.18 | 38 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.63 |
2 | Cole Whitt | 9.62 | 37 | Brad Keselowski | 4.71 |
3 | Ross Chastain | 8.21 | 36 | Jamie McMurray | 4.97 |
4 | Trevor Bayne | 8.20 | 35 | Daniel Suarez | 5.01 |
5 | Gray Gaulding | 7.63 | 34 | Kevin Harvick | 5.06 |
6 | Matt DiBenedetto | 7.22 | 33 | Ryan Blaney | 5.08 |
7 | David Ragan | 7.21 | 32 | Jimmie Johnson | 5.09 |
8 | Aric Almirola | 6.93 | 31 | Kurt Busch | 5.09 |
9 | Austin Dillon | 6.82 | 30 | Denny Hamlin | 5.21 |
10 | Bubba Wallace | 6.67 | 29 | Clint Bowyer | 5.26 |
Drivers To Watch This Week:
Kevin Harvick: Harvick is still the most-expensive driver on the list this week, and for good reason given his season, but also his history at the track. In the last four races Harvick has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s with 50 laps led, third most in the field, and an impressive 83% top-15 rate. He is also one of three drivers with an average driver rating of over 100, and his 110.8 mark is the best in the field. Harvick in the last 10 races at Sonoma has six top-10s with an average PD of +4.8 which is pretty solid.
Kyle Busch: The only other driver with a win in the last four races, that’s in the field, is Kyle. He also has two top-fives, three top-10s, and 22 laps led. His five fastest laps isn’t much to speak of and neither is 67% top-15 rate but he does have a 96.8 average driver rating. Busch also has two wins, three top-fives, four top-10s and 110 laps led in the last 10 races at the track. You will find amongst the track data that consistency is hard to come by here with just five drivers in the field having two top-fives so Busch’s record here is about as good as it gets.
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer doesn’t have a win, but does have two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races, and if you go back to his last seven races, there are six top-10s in there including a win. In the last 10 races, his six top-fives and eight top-10s are the most in the field in that span. He may not run near the top of the pack (just 49% top-15 rate in the last four and 61% in the last 10) but his consistent finishes are the best of the pack. If you don’t mind not getting bonus points, Bowyer’s solid finishes every race are a sure fire way to improve the lineup.
Jimmie Johnson: It’s been a while since JJ has been mentioned in any of my write-ups and for good reason, he’s been bad this year. He has just one lap led on the year, and that came when he didn’t pit when everyone else did. So why is he in this section again? His history here is hard to pass up. Johnson has two top-10s and four top-15s in the last four races with 58 laps led, second in the field, and one of the best position differentials at +8.7 and 32 fastest laps which is tied for second as well. JJ has posted the best average finish of anyone in the last 10 races at P8, in fact it’s the only one in the top-10 on average. His 140 laps led are the class of the field and he’s yet to finish outside the top-15 in that span, with seven inside the top-10. This season hasn’t gone well but a trip back home might help settle things down, though he’s still a GPP-only play.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been an afterthought much of the season with his single-car team struggling to compete at most tracks, however his history here has been good even with down years at Hendrick taken into account. Kahne has three top-10s in the last four races, making him one of only four drivers to accomplish that, and he also has a sterling 12.20 position differential in that span. In the last 10 races he has a win, two top-fives, and six top-10s, and seven top-15s, with 41 laps led which is pretty solid from a guy that is usually a cheaper option.
AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger, usually a budget play each week, he sees a big bump in price this week in DK going from an average of $5,850 up to $8,000 this week and he up to $9,100 on Fanduel. Why? Because he has open-wheel experience and is usually good at the road courses. He’s led the most laps with 60 in the last four races and averages qualifying 2.5. He only has one top-15 finish in the last four races though with an average finish of 30.8 in that span. In the last 10 he has two top-10s and five top-15s but no additional laps led. That makes him squarely a GPP play in the hopes that his bugaboos have passed and he can finish near where he starts.