Sunday will be the last race at a short track for a while. August 20 to be exact which means it’s open asphalt and fast speeds from next week on out. In the meantime let’s look at the data that will help us figure out who’s worth playing and who isn’t for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway.
| Avg | Avg | High | Low | Avg | Points | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Laps Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Diff. | Points | Pts/Race |
| Kyle Busch | 12.7 | 7.1 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 940 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 101.6 | 5.60 | 235.00 | 11.19 |
| Tony Stewart | 17.5 | 12.7 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 26 | 950 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 101.0 | 4.83 | 237.50 | 7.20 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 16.8 | 13.2 | 33 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 501 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 95.3 | 3.56 | 125.25 | 3.80 |
| Kevin Harvick | 15.0 | 10.8 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 987 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 110.5 | 4.17 | 246.75 | 8.23 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 12.8 | 16.7 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 417 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 97.7 | -3.88 | 104.25 | 3.72 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.8 | 10.8 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 1,404 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 86.4 | 0.01 | 351.00 | 18.47 |
| Matt Kenseth | 18.9 | 15.5 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 755 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 108.0 | 3.37 | 188.75 | 5.90 |
| Kurt Busch | 18.1 | 16.5 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 748 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 103.4 | 1.57 | 187.00 | 6.23 |
| Clint Bowyer | 13.0 | 11.3 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 348 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 90.0 | 1.70 | 87.00 | 4.35 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.6 | 11.5 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 454 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 88.9 | 1.10 | 113.50 | 4.05 |
| Joey Logano | 11.4 | 13.8 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 165 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 116.8 | -2.39 | 41.25 | 2.95 |
| Carl Edwards | 13.2 | 14.0 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 488 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 80.4 | -0.80 | 122.00 | 5.30 |
| Kasey Kahne | 14.3 | 17.3 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 281 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 85.2 | -2.95 | 70.25 | 2.93 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8.8 | 16.2 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 648 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 122.7 | -7.43 | 162.00 | 12.46 |
| Jamie McMurray | 21.8 | 20.3 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 41 | 4 | 100.6 | 1.53 | 7.25 | 0.28 |
| David Ragan | 23.4 | 22.2 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 57.5 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Greg Biffle | 19.8 | 17.7 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 77 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 64.6 | 2.13 | 19.25 | 0.71 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 16.0 | 22.0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 75.2 | -5.95 | 12.00 | 0.60 |
| Aric Almirola | 21.3 | 16.4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 79.0 | 4.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 24.4 | 23.7 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 65.6 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.06 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 18.0 | 19.7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 75.2 | -1.71 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| Casey Mears | 22.8 | 24.4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 61.4 | -1.62 | 1.50 | 0.06 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.7 | 22.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 56.2 | -3.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Larson | 8.0 | 12.8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 85.1 | -4.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 30.8 | 29.1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 4 | 40.0 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 24.8 | 25.5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 57.4 | -0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 19.9 | 25.0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 1 | 55.0 | -5.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 27.8 | 28.2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 38 | 0 | 50.7 | -0.38 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| Chase Elliott | 16.0 | 16.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 76.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Austin Dillon | 21.8 | 25.3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 | 0 | 62.0 | -3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 30.9 | 38.6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 9 | 31.5 | -7.70 | 0.25 | 0.03 |
| Brian Scott | 17.0 | 22.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 63.0 | -5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 31.0 | 23.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 24 | 0 | 57.2 | 7.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 32.0 | 36.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 43 | 1 | 41.6 | -4.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 36.6 | 37.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 41 | 1 | 37.9 | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Wise | 32.9 | 37.4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 42 | 4 | 34.3 | -4.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 35.0 | 36.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 37 | 0 | 34.1 | -1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 42.0 | 40.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 26.3 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Ellis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buesher | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on Short Tracks
| Avg | Avg | High | Low | Avg | Points | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Laps Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Diff. | Points | Pts/Race |
| Joey Logano | 3.90 | 10.50 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 868 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 109.3 | -6.60 | 217.00 | 15.50 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8.40 | 15.57 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 897 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 103.5 | -7.17 | 224.25 | 16.02 |
| Kurt Busch | 14.40 | 15.43 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 545 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 98.2 | -1.03 | 136.25 | 9.73 |
| Carl Edwards | 10.10 | 12.21 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 527 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 95.1 | -2.11 | 131.75 | 9.41 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 20.40 | 13.29 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 90.9 | 7.11 | 27.75 | 1.98 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7.00 | 15.21 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 757 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 99.4 | -8.21 | 189.25 | 13.52 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.50 | 14.64 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 656 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 99.6 | -7.14 | 164.00 | 14.91 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.30 | 16.86 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 262 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 89.8 | -7.56 | 65.50 | 4.68 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 12.90 | 13.86 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 340 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 96.0 | -0.96 | 85.00 | 6.07 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.80 | 14.43 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 607 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 108.5 | -2.63 | 151.75 | 10.84 |
| Jamie McMurray | 13.50 | 15.07 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 246 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 95.2 | -1.57 | 61.50 | 4.39 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.70 | 12.00 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 85.8 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.04 |
| Clint Bowyer | 18.90 | 15.64 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 2 | 81.7 | 3.26 | 13.50 | 0.96 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.80 | 18.29 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 2 | 73.9 | 5.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tony Stewart | 17.30 | 17.27 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 76.6 | 0.03 | 6.50 | 0.59 |
Denny Hamlin-At $10,400 this is the most expensive Denny has been all season but it’s with good reason, as R.I.R. is his home track and one on which he has had a very good history. Hamlin has led by far the most laps, 1,404, in his 19 races there more than any other active driver on the track. He does however have just two wins at the track with a few other drivers having equaled that total and surpassing it.
Matt Kenseth-Last week was an odd week for him as he led 142 laps and registered 26 fastest laps but only managed 23 points due to a terrible 36th place finish. He is one of the top short track drivers in Sprint Cup and with is performances can justify the price tag, and Sunday could be his first win of the season if he can avoid the issues that plagued him at Bristol a week ago.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Jr. is my favorite pick of the week this week given his price tag and the consistently good performances he lays down at Richmond. Aside from the first few weeks of the season, he has been in the $9,000-range and has been very productive at the value point. Dale is an elite driver at a discounted price and that makes him a high value play.
Tony Stewart- Smoke returns at Richmond. That’s the headline this week as he missed the first 10 races of the season due to a back injury. He has been very good at Richmond in the past but the last few races haven’t been kind to him. Stewart and his team picked this race to return because of his comfortableness on the track (3 wins and 11 top-5’s) and the slower speeds. He may be a tad rusty however, so he is a GPP-only play this week.
Kyle Larson-Larson has only raced at Richmond four times heading into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 but in those four races he has finished between 11th and 16th each time. He also had his best race of the year at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago. This price is about where he should sit but it would be nice to see just a little more value here.
Clint Bowyer-Fresh off his best race of the season he heads to another track that has been good to him in the past. He has 12 top-10 finishes in 20 races at the track and has led nearly 350 laps in that span. He is more suited for GPP lineups than cash given his recent boom or bust performances of 38, 24, 4, and 64 points in the last four races respectively but does offer the potential upside to make him a good play.
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