DFS NASCAR: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Track Breakdown

We’re back! After the last off-week of the season it’s time to delve into the data for Bristol for the second time this year. Saturday night’s race is the fourth left before the Chase and should show off the tight passing for which short tracks are known. As you will see, there are quite a few drivers (seven) with more than 100 laps led since the start of 2014 at the track known as Thunder Valley. Being able to move through the field is a key too this week with just eight drivers passing more than six people a race.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Key Drivers on Short Tracks

Drivers to watch this week:

Carl Edwards: Carl has absolutely dominated at Bristol Motor Speedway in the last five races, with two wins and four top-10 finishes not to mention the 514 laps led, 276 of which came at the April race this season. He has also been very good at the other short tracks (Martinsville and Richmond) in that same span. JGR has been crushing the competition most weeks and this week is likely not to be any different, at least with Edwards’ history at the track.

Joey Logano: Logano is the other driver with two wins in the last five tries at Bristol and has three top-10s. He may only be fifth in laps led with 268 but that’s still more than enough to get our attention. He has also racked up three wins, eight top-fives, 868 laps led, and five poles at all the short tracks since 2014 began. If he is on the pole for the night race, he is surefire roster lock in both formats. Typically though he is more of a GPP play than cash.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie Mac has been solid at Bristol with 168 laps led and an average finish of just one spot further back than he started. Four top-20s in five tries gives him the consistency we look for in lineups and his one top-10 gives upside. It has been a mostly middling season for the number 1 car so far but that could absolutely change in a hurry with Saturday’s race as he looks to keep his tentative spot in the Chase in tact.

Kyle Busch: It has been a rough few years at the second shortest track on the schedule but he does have a great history at the track. Busch is tied for the most wins, five, of any active driver at the track in his 22 races there but none have come since 2011. Since then he has really struggles and finished an average of 23 spots behind where he started, 4^th-27^th, but has led 273 laps, good for fourth on the list. He is an upside play if he can find his form from his first 13 races at Thunder Valley of his career.

Tony Stewart: Stewart has really found his groove of late in his final season and now comes to a track that he owns the best positional differential on in the field. His +23 mark in the category is a boon for points and gives him a great chance to finish in the top-10 no matter where he starts the day. The downside is he has not led a single lap here in the last three races he’s run and has only led 26 overall in the last 12 short track races total. Stewart is racing at the Tennessee track for the last time on Saturday and will be looking to put on a show for the fans one last time.