Quick Summary of Today’s Top Underdog MLB Picks: 

The 2026 MLB season rolls on with the All-Star break in the rearview. It’s been an entertaining first half of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players to watch. Let’s now focus on the Sunday, August 16th slate of games with our top Underdog MLB Picks. We’ll break down a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy today’s action. 
 

 
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Sunday, 8/16

Tarik Skubal MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 7.5 Strikeouts

Tarik Skubal has had mixed results since being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He allowed two runs over six solid innings against the Cubs in his first outing, and then gave up three runs over five frames against the Royals. He also struck out just six batters in both starts. 

Let’s back Skubal to be better at home today against the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve struggled mightily against left-handed pitching lately. The Brewers are batting just .219 with a league-high 35.7% strikeout rate vs. southpaws in August. It’s a favorable spot for Skubal, who should be more comfortable pitching in Dodger Stadium the second time around. 

Before the trade deadline, Skubal put up a 1.95 ERA and 1.73 FIP over his final six starts with Detroit. He also had a 67:7 K:BB ratio over his last eight outings with the Tigers, averaging 8.4 Ks per start. Overall this season, the lefty has averaged 7.1 strikeouts per outing. 

In this matchup, the strikeout upside should be there. Skubal has a 30.5% strikeout rate this season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. His 32.2% whiff rate (92nd-percentile) and 36.2% chase rate (94th) are also elite metrics. As noted above, the Brewers’ high strikeout rate vs. lefties this month is pretty glaring. 

Jac Caglianone MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Jac Caglianone is among the hottest hitters in baseball right now. The Kansas City Royals’ first baseman is hitting .410 with a 1.190 OPS over his last 15 games. He’s also hitting .438 with a 1.282 OPS in August, not to mention a .309 batting average and .903 OPS over his last 31 games.

We can feel confident in backing Caglianone to stay hot against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. Right-hander Ryan Johnson gets the start, and he brings in an ugly 6.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the season. While he’s put together a couple of good outings lately, he’s still susceptible to a rough performance. 

Caglianone has been productive against right-handed pitching, hitting .281 with an .854 OPS in the split this year. Johnson, meanwhile, is allowing an .852 OPS to left-handed hitters so far. The matchup is working in Caglianone’s favor, in addition to his scorching hot bat.