Chase Burns Underdog MLB Picks Today, 8/14: Baseball Projections + More

Friday's top two Underdog plays both come from the same marquee matchup in Cincinnati, where two of the National League's better starters go head to head with a clear strikeout edge tilting one direction. Both arms have been excellent this season, and one gets an added boost from facing the league's most strikeout-prone offense, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Chase Burns MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 6.5 Strikeouts

Burns has been one of the National League's more dominant arms this season, posting a 10.4 K/9 and a 28.5 percent strikeout rate across 124 innings. His last outing was a rough one on the scoreboard, allowing five runs against Washington, but the underlying swing-and-miss stuff remained sharp even as the results slipped. Pitching at home tonight, where he has been especially effective all season, gives him a favorable setting to bounce back against a Miami lineup that offers a reasonably ordinary strikeout matchup. His season-long track record of missing bats gives him a real path to clearing this number regardless of the modest matchup edge.

Sandy Alcantara MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Alcantara has not allowed a run in 20 innings across his last three starts, a scoreless streak that has coincided with some of his best strikeout stuff of the season. His most recent outing produced seven shutout innings and eight strikeouts against the Angels on just three hits allowed, continuing a workhorse campaign built on both volume and efficiency. Cincinnati carries the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching of any team in baseball at 25.5 percent, an elite matchup that plays right into his four-seam and changeup combination. That pairing of red-hot form and a premium strikeout environment makes this number very reachable tonight.

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