Sean Burke Underdog MLB Picks Today, 8/11: Baseball Projections + More

Tuesday's slate serves up a pair of swing-and-miss arms lined up against opponents that make life easy for a pitcher chasing strikeouts. Both picks below are pitching at a season-best or near-season-best form heading into their starts, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Sean Burke MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Burke has piled up 144 strikeouts through 128.2 innings this season, translating to 10.1 K/9 and a 27.4 percent strikeout rate that sits near the top of tonight's board. His most recent start was shorter than usual against Boston, but he still worked four punchouts in 4 1/3 innings and carries a 3.08 ERA into Tuesday. Cincinnati has never faced Burke before, and more importantly the Reds carry the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching of any team in baseball at 25.5 percent. That combination of unfamiliarity and a swing-happy lineup profile makes this a favorable spot for a pitcher who has already cleared this number regularly.

Eury Perez MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 6.5 Strikeouts

Perez struck out nine over five innings in his last start against Atlanta, continuing a season in which he sits at 9.63 K/9 and a 27.1 percent strikeout rate across 104.2 innings. The 23-year-old right-hander has quietly built one of the better swing-and-miss profiles in the league, running a 3.44 ERA that undersells the quality of his stuff. Pittsburgh's 23.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching sits above league average, and it plays right into Perez's fastball-splitter combination. Seven or more strikeouts over five to six innings has been well within his range this season, and tonight's matchup does nothing to change that outlook.

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