Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Saturday, July 11th, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Reynaldo Lopez’s earned runs allowed and Eury Perez’s strikeouts both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections set up the way they do.

 

 

 

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Reynaldo Lopez under 2.5 earned runs allowed and Eury Perez over 6.5 strikeouts. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

Reynaldo Lopez Lower Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

As a starter this season, Lopez has a 3.12 ERA, .225 BAA, and 1.24 WHIP, and his last three appearances have come as a starter after 22 straight IP of relief work. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed one earned run in all three starts, posting a 2.08 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and 12:3 K/BB ratio. There are some slight winds blowing in, and you may not find an offense struggling more of late against righties than the Cardinals.

Over the last two weeks, the Cardinals have the second-lowest batting average (.199), third-lowest OPS (.597), third-lowest wOBA (.267), and the league’s-lowest BABIP (.224) against right-handed pitchers. Since rejoining the rotation, Lopez has been very effective, and overall for the year, he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of eight starts.

Eury Perez Higher Than 6.5 Strikeouts

Despite having to go on the road to face the Athletics and Rockies in his last two starts, Perez has dazzled, including seven hitless innings in his last appearance. The strikeouts have ticked up for the young ace, and he always has my attention when pitching at home.

With him being on the better side of his home/road splits, and a good matchup against a strikeout-prone Cleveland lineup of late, Perez could very well flirt with a double-digit strikeout outing today. The Guardians have a 26% strikeout rate as a team over the last two weeks against RHP, which is the fourth-highest mark in baseball, and the Guardians running out 6+ LHH today actually plays into Perez’s numbers well (28.8 K% vs. LHH in 2026).

If Perez’s changeup is on, he will wreak havoc against Cleveland’s lefties, en route to a big strikeout day on the mound.

 

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If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.