Paul Skenes Underdog MLB Picks Today, 9/1: Baseball Projections + More

Tuesday's top two Underdog plays both go under, with one ace working through a modest strikeout stretch and another running into one of the weakest strikeout offenses in baseball on both a season-long and recent basis, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 6.5 Strikeouts

Skenes has been generating outs through efficiency and soft contact rather than swings and misses lately, and his last outing against San Diego reflected that trend with six scoreless innings but just four strikeouts. San Francisco's strikeout rate against right-handed pitching has climbed to 24.7 percent over the last two weeks, up from a 22.0 percent season mark, but that has not translated into big strikeout numbers for Skenes specifically during this run-prevention-focused stretch. He has faced the Giants only once in his career, and his current form points more toward efficient innings than a strikeout-heavy outing. That recent trend makes the under the smarter side tonight.

Gavin Williams MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 6.5 Strikeouts

Williams has surrendered five earned runs twice in his past three starts, including a rough 1.1-inning outing against the Angels last week, a clear step back in recent form. Toronto's strikeout rate against right-handed pitching sits at just 18.4 percent for the season and has dropped even further to 15.5 percent over the last two weeks, one of the weakest recent strikeout trends anywhere in baseball. Even with an elite 32.3 percent strikeout rate on the season, his shaky recent command paired with a genuinely contact-oriented Toronto lineup both point toward the under. That combination makes this the smarter side of the number tonight.

Unlock Your $50 Guaranteed Bonus & More With Underdog Promo

Come hang out in our free Fantasy Alarm Discord to talk through these selections and swap entries with our analysts!