Paul Skenes Underdog MLB Picks Today, 7/31: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? We're hunting pitcher K value again for Underdog Fantasy, and the trade deadline on Friday hands us an unlucky ace who owns his opponent historically and a red-hot lefty getting a badly banged-up Yankees lineup. Built around season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties, let's break down today's top plays. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

A 2.84 xERA in the 92nd percentile says Skenes' 3.66 actual mark has been lying to us all year, and a 30.4% strikeout rate on the season confirms the swing-and-miss stuff has never left. His last start produced a season-high 11 strikeouts against the Cubs, a game he called "weird" after cruising through four innings before losing steam late and taking the loss despite the huge total. Tonight he faces Cincinnati, a team he's dominated to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and 52 strikeouts across seven career starts, a 12 K/9 clip against this exact lineup. The Reds also strike out against right-handers at 25.3%, one of the better matchup numbers on the board, and pairing that history with tonight's opponent profile makes this an easy call. Take it.

Shota Imanaga MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Dating back to June 10, Imanaga has been elite, a 2.00 ERA over eight starts and a scorching 1.19 ERA across his last four, a stretch that's carried his season line to 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 121.2 innings. His last outing was six scoreless innings against the Pirates on just four hits, continuing that dominant run. Tonight he draws a Yankees lineup missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger, hitting just .220 with a .279 OBP over its last 24 games, an offense leaning on Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez to manufacture anything. New York strikes out against lefties at a strong 24.5% clip even at full strength, and a thinned-out order like this only sweetens the number for a pitcher performing at this level. Lock it in.

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